Who's Up and Who's Down?: NCAA Football Power Rankings

Sometimes it pays to have the week off. Sometimes it doesn't.

The USC Trojans and Boise State Broncos didn't even have to play a game this week to move up in our power rankings; while unbeaten Cincinnati and South Florida, who match up on Thursday night and also had a bye last week, each move down two spots in the rankings, calculated by simulating each team against every other FBS team 100 times (more below in rankings table).

Florida and Alabama—now Nos. 1 and 2 in the AP poll, as well—remain in the top two spots. The Gators continue to win almost 99 percent of their games. USC, the highest-ranked one-loss team, moves up one spot to No. 4, thanks in large part to a drop from TCU.

Also idle, Boise State jumps three spots into the top five. The TCU Horned Frogs, No. 4 last week, eked out a victory at Air Force, but the tight score costs them four spots.

Virginia Tech, posting its latest big victory over Boston College, hops six spots up to No. 6. That big leap helps bump the Bearcats and Bulls down.

The biggest bye-week winner is Notre Dame. The Irish got an extra week to prepare for USC and jump a dozen spots without even snapping the ball.

This week's biggest mover upward is Central Michigan. The Chippewas beat Eastern Michigan 56-8 to bolt up 36 spots—from 69th to 33rd. Central Michigan, now 5-1 and atop the Mid-American Conference West, beats all other opponents 68.6 percent of the time, but (in real-life) now they face road games for three straight weeks.

Other big leapers include: Texas Tech, whose 66-14 throttling of Kansas State helps them move up 26 spots to 39th; Wyoming, who beat New Mexico 37-13 and move up 25 spots to 57th, now beating all other FBS opponents more than half the time; Troy, who moves up 21 spots to 77th; and Western Michigan, who hops 20 spots and into the top 100.

The biggest drop of the week goes to Colorado, who had Texas on the ropes at halftime but was shut out in the second half. The Buffaloes are now 1-4 and fall 31 spots, out of the top 100 to 101st. The Buffaloes are scoring less than 10 points per game in this week's simulations and beat their FBS opponents less than 20 percent of the time.

Other droppers include: Auburn and Wisconsin, who each saw their undefeated starts come to an end, dipping 14 spots and out of the top 20; the Georgia Bulldogs, who drop from the Top 25 to 51st after losing to Tennessee; and Boston College, who drops 19 spots and is now beating FBS opponents less than half of the time.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	98.8	57.2	6.8
2.	Alabama Crimson Tide	-	97.2	49.9	7.1
3.	USC Trojans	+1	96.9	50.3	6.4
4.	Boise State Broncos	+3	94.4	48.8	11.0
5.	Texas Longhorns	-	93.5	42.9	7.8
6.	Virginia Tech Hokies	+6	93.3	47.9	12.2
7.	TCU Horned Frogs	-4	92.9	43.0	9.7
8.	Cincinnati Bearcats	-2	91.6	46.3	11.3
9.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-1	91.0	41.3	9.5
10.	Ohio State Buckeyes	+1	89.8	38.0	9.5
11.	South Florida Bulls	-2	89.4	41.9	13.4
12.	Iowa Hawkeyes	+3	89.4	39.4	11.2
13.	Oregon Ducks	-3	89.0	36.7	9.5
14.	Oklahoma Sooners	+6	85.7	35.3	11.2
15.	Brigham Young Cougars	+4	82.8	40.1	18.5
16.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	-	82.8	37.7	17.0
17.	Penn State Nittany Lions	+8	79.4	32.0	14.8
18.	LSU Tigers	-1	78.8	29.6	12.6
19.	West Virginia Mountaineers	+11	78.5	35.8	16.2
20.	Missouri Tigers	-7	78.5	31.2	14.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	+2	77.6	34.1	17.0
22.	Utah Utes	+4	76.7	33.6	16.8
23.	Kansas Jayhawks	-2	75.2	34.8	18.1
24.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	+12	73.9	36.9	21.7
25.	Arkansas Razorbacks	+13	73.7	36.4	21.1
26.	Stanford Cardinal	-4	73.3	34.3	19.2
27.	Connecticut Huskies	+14	72.3	26.6	14.9
28.	Auburn Tigers	-14	71.1	34.0	19.8
29.	Fresno State Bulldogs	+10	70.9	36.7	21.7
30.	Tennessee Volunteers	+15	69.7	27.7	15.8
31.	South Carolina Gamecocks	+2	68.9	27.6	16.0
32.	Wisconsin Badgers	-14	68.7	31.9	19.8
33.	Central Michigan Chippewas	+36	68.6	28.9	17.9
34.	Houston Cougars	+8	68.5	34.0	23.6
35.	Baylor Bears	-4	67.9	29.7	18.9
36.	Michigan State Spartans	-1	67.8	29.1	18.2
37.	California Golden Bears	-8	67.7	30.0	18.5
38.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-4	67.0	32.9	21.6
39.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	+26	66.1	27.8	19.1
40.	Pittsburgh Panthers	-12	65.8	31.2	21.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	+7	64.7	27.9	20.4
42.	Air Force Falcons	-2	64.5	26.3	18.3
43.	Arizona Wildcats	-16	64.4	26.5	18.9
44.	Mississippi Rebels	-12	63.9	24.7	17.1
45.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	+1	63.3	25.5	19.3
46.	Oregon State Beavers	+10	61.7	25.4	19.4
47.	Texas A&M Aggies	-3	60.2	26.6	21.4
48.	Idaho Vandals	+3	59.7	27.7	22.6
49.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	-2	59.7	26.0	21.1
50.	Nevada Wolf Pack	+11	56.7	28.9	24.4
51.	Georgia Bulldogs	-27	56.3	23.5	21.3
52.	Florida State Seminoles	-3	54.4	26.8	24.6
53.	Clemson Tigers	+6	53.5	18.2	17.3
54.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	-17	52.9	21.4	20.2
55.	Northern Illinois Huskies	+9	52.8	24.9	24.0
56.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	+2	51.1	23.6	23.4
57.	Wyoming Cowboys	+25	51.1	21.1	21.1
58.	Michigan Wolverines	+5	50.7	22.4	22.6
59.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	-5	50.7	23.9	23.1
60.	Washington Huskies	+17	50.7	24.0	23.8
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	Navy Midshipmen	-9	50.1	22.2	22.5
62.	Boston College Eagles	-19	48.9	19.7	20.2
63.	North Carolina Tar Heels	+3	48.2	13.8	15.9
64.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	-14	47.9	21.0	22.5
65.	Utah State Aggies	-12	47.6	23.9	25.7
66.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	+7	46.3	19.8	22.9
67.	Kansas State Wildcats	-7	45.7	20.9	24.9
68.	Temple Owls	-1	44.9	19.1	21.8
69.	Ohio Bobcats	+10	44.6	17.6	21.4
70.	Hawaii Warriors	-13	42.3	21.4	26.3
71.	Arizona State Sun Devils	-	42.2	14.8	20.2
72.	UCLA Bruins	-17	42.1	14.8	19.6
73.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	+5	42.1	19.8	25.2
74.	Purdue Boilermakers	-6	40.7	19.8	24.7
75.	Colorado State Rams	+9	40.2	18.5	25.7
76.	Buffalo Bulls	+16	39.6	18.9	26.4
77.	Troy Trojans	+21	39.2	19.0	26.4
78.	Toledo Rockets	-16	38.8	21.4	28.7
79.	Louisville Cardinals	+9	38.7	17.8	25.4
80.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-8	36.8	19.1	27.3
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Virginia Cavaliers	+4	36.2	12.0	21.2
82.	Marshall Thundering Herd	+9	34.1	17.2	27.6
83.	Vanderbilt Commodores	-9	34.1	13.1	23.6
84.	Iowa State Cyclones	+2	33.7	18.8	28.7
85.	Western Michigan Broncos	+20	32.3	16.4	27.5
86.	Indiana Hoosiers	-11	32.3	14.7	25.7
87.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	-4	31.2	13.9	25.9
88.	Kentucky Wildcats	-7	30.1	15.0	27.0
89.	Illinois Fighting Illini	-13	29.8	16.8	30.2
90.	UCF Knights	+9	29.4	12.6	25.1
91.	Northwestern Wildcats	+4	26.8	12.7	27.6
92.	Duke Blue Devils	+2	26.4	14.4	28.4
93.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	-6	26.4	15.1	30.2
94.	UAB Blazers	-14	26.4	16.6	31.7
95.	East Carolina Pirates	-2	24.8	12.1	27.7
96.	Army Black Knights	+6	23.4	11.2	28.5
97.	North Texas Mean Green	-8	23.3	13.0	30.4
98.	Tulane Green Wave	+3	22.9	13.0	31.6
99.	UTEP Miners	-9	22.5	14.2	34.1
100.	Maryland Terrapins	-4	22.4	11.6	30.6
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	Colorado Buffaloes	-31	19.7	9.6	29.3
102.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	+1	19.4	10.2	29.9
103.	UNLV Rebels	-3	17.8	13.2	36.3
104.	Syracuse Orange	-7	17.3	9.6	29.3
105.	San Diego State Aztecs	-1	16.8	8.8	28.7
106.	Kent State Golden Flashes	+7	15.9	9.4	31.5
107.	Memphis Tigers	+5	14.9	11.2	33.7
108.	Florida Atlantic Owls	-2	14.2	11.8	38.9
109.	Bowling Green Falcons	-1	12.8	8.9	36.0
110.	Akron Zips	-3	12.4	8.5	36.3
111.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	-	9.4	9.0	40.7
112.	Florida International Golden Panthers	+6	9.3	8.2	38.3
113.	Ball State Cardinals	-3	8.9	7.2	35.1
114.	New Mexico Lobos	-5	8.9	6.0	36.2
115.	Rice Owls	-1	8.3	8.0	40.2
116.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	+1	6.7	5.4	38.1
117.	New Mexico State Aggies	-2	6.3	5.6	38.0
118.	San Jose State Spartans	+1	5.9	6.9	43.1
119.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	-3	5.9	5.6	42.1
120.	Washington State Cougars	-	4.2	5.5	42.4

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams.

We simulated every possible DI FBS matchup 100 times and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team.

All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!