Projecting MLB Arrival Dates for Each Team's Top Prospect
Fanbases are always excited for the next big thing to come along, and in recent seasons we've seen a wave of dynamic young talent arrive on the scene.
For some teams, the next top-flight prospect is on the cusp of making an MLB impact.
Andrew Benintendi, Dansby Swanson and a handful of others are already squarely in the MLB picture with starting jobs to call their own on Opening Day.
For others teams, the headliner of the farm system is still a few years off.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just turned 18 earlier this month as the marquee prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays system, while 2016 draft picks Nick Senzel (Reds), Braxton Garrett (Marlins), Matt Manning (Tigers) and Kyle Lewis (Mariners) are all the top dogs in their respective organizations as well.
So when will each team's top prospect arrive in the majors?
Ahead we've sorted all 30 of the No. 1-ranked prospects—based on MLB.com's current rankings—into seven different categories based on their expected arrival in the majors.
2020
1 of 7Detroit Tigers: RHP Matt Manning (Age: 19)
The prototypical high school right-hander with a big fastball that the Detroit Tigers have made a point of targeting in recent seasons, Manning will be something of a project after going No. 9 overall last June.
There's a ton of projectability left in his 6'6" frame, and he stands out as an athlete after also starring on the basketball court in high school. Developing his changeup as a viable third offering and avoiding some of the mechanical pitfalls that often plague taller pitchers will be his biggest battles going forward.
Texas Rangers: OF Leody Taveras (Age: 18)
Taveras was signed for a $2.1 million bonus as part of the 2015 international free agent crop, and he made his way stateside and even received a taste of Low-A ball in his pro debut.
The switch-hitting center fielder has a chance to be a legitimate five-tool threat with an advanced approach at the plate, plenty of room to add strength to his 6'1", 170-pound frame, and both the wheels and instincts to stick in center field.
His full-season debut will be among the most anticipated of 2017.
Toronto Bue Jays: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Age: 18)
As the son of former MVP Vladimir Guerrero, he certainly has the bloodlines.
An .808 OPS with 23 extra-base hits in 276 plate appearances as the youngest player in the Appalachian League has only furthered the hype surrounding the teenage slugger.
It remains to be seen whether he'll stick at third base or wind up moving across the diamond to first or to a corner outfield spot, but he has as much power potential as any prospect in the game.
2019
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Chicago Cubs: RF Eloy Jimenez (Age: 20)
A $2.8 million bonus as the No. 1 international prospect in the 2013 free-agent class has made Jimenez a well-known commodity since he joined the Cubs organization, and he finally began delivering on his huge offensive upside.
He hit .329/.369/.532 with 40 doubles, 14 home runs and 81 RBI at the Single-A level and shined on the national stage in the Futures Game.
He'll be 20 for the entirety of the 2017 season, and the Cubs have no reason to fast-track him with an already crowded outfield situation, so a 2019 arrival is the most likely timetable at this point.
Los Angeles Angels: CF Jahmai Jones (Age: 19)
A toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling, Jones hit .302/.379/.422 with 20 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases while getting a taste of the Single-A level in his first full professional season.
MLB.com raved about his high baseball IQ, budding power and plus wheels while noting that he has the tools to stay in center field at the highest level.
He's still raw, but he's far and away the most promising prospect in a weak Angels system.
Miami Marlins: LHP Braxton Garrett (Age: 19)
Garrett is as polished as any high school arm to come along in years.
The 6'3", 190-pound left-hander already has a plus curveball, and both his mid-90s fastball and changeup are advanced offerings with the potential to be plus pitches as well.
He may not have legitimate ace upside, but he should move quickly toward his ceiling as a No. 2 starter and could be the first high school arm to reach the majors from a deep class that included the likes of Jay Groome, Riley Pint, Matt Manning, Forrest Whitley, Ian Anderson and others.
Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age: 19)
The Nationals shipped out a number of highly regarded prospects to acquire Adam Eaton, but the crown jewel of their system remains in Robles.
The precocious teenager reached the High-A level as a 19-year-old, hitting .280/.376/.423 with 34 extra-base hits and 37 stolen bases while continuing to show loud tools across the board.
MLB.com wrote: "He has the athleticism, physical tools and baseball savvy to continue to pass every challenge the organization throws his way. He's a few years away from the majors, but Robles is well on his way toward becoming a franchise player."
If Bryce Harper walks after the 2018 season, Robles could be the perfect impact replacement.
2018 Second Half
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Cincinnati Reds: 3B Nick Senzel (Age: 21)
Senzel wasted little time getting his pro career rolling after going No. 2 overall last spring.
He hit .305/.398/.514 with 24 doubles, seven home runs, 40 RBI and 18 stolen bases over 292 plate appearances between rookie ball and Single-A.
Eugenio Suarez is under team control through the 2020 season, but he'll likely be unseated for the starting third base job long before that time comes.
Colorado Rockies: 2B/SS Brendan Rodgers (Age: 20)
Rodgers was taken No. 3 overall in the 2015 draft, right behind Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, and he may have the highest offensive ceiling of that trio.
He spent the bulk of last season as a 19-year-old in Single-A, hitting .281/.342/.480 with 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 73 RBI.
DJ LeMahieu is a free agent after the 2018 season, and Rodgers could wind up being his replacement at second base, joining shortstop Trevor Story to form one of the more productive middle infields in baseball.
Minnesota Twins: SS Nick Gordon (Age: 21)
MLB.com wrote: "Gordon continues to be more high floor than high ceiling, a prospect who doesn't have one 'wow' tool, but who can do everything relatively well."
The son of former MLB closer Tom Gordon hit .291/.335/.386 and raised his OPS from .696 to .721 while making the jump to the High-A level last season.
If Brian Dozier winds up traded ahead of his free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, the Twins could opt to shift Jorge Polanco to second base. That would clear a path for Gordon to take over as the everyday shortstop.
Seattle Mariners: OF Kyle Lewis (Age: 21)
Lewis put up monster numbers at Mercer University as a junior, posting a 1.266 OPS with 20 home runs and 72 RBI in 301 plate appearances to vault himself into the No. 11 spot in the draft last June.
However, his pro debut was cut short when he suffered a torn ACL.
He's a presence in the batter's box with a strong 6'4", 210-pound frame, and he has plus raw power with a hit tool to match. He won't resume baseball activities until April, but it shouldn't have a major impact on his timeline as one of the more polished college bats in last year's class.
Tampa Bay Rays: SS Willy Adames (Age: 21)
Adames was the centerpiece of the deal that sent David Price to the Detroit Tigers at the deadline in 2014, and he's close to making an impact at the MLB level.
Brad Miller and Matt Duffy are expected to make up the middle infield tandem for the Rays this season, but both are capable of playing elsewhere if needed and won't stand in the way of Adames once he's ready.
He spent all of last season in Double-A, hitting .274/.372/.430 with 31 doubles, 11 home runs and 57 RBI as he improved across the board and raised his OPS from .721 to .802.
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2018 First Half
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Baltimore Orioles: C Chance Sisco (Age: 22)
Sisco announced himself as the catcher of the future for the Orioles when he hit .317/.403/.430 with 35 extra-base hits between Double-A and Triple-A last season.
His receiving skills are still a work in progress, so the O's opted to sign veteran Welington Castillo to a one-year, $6 million deal that includes a $7 million player option for 2018.
With a strong season, he'll likely decline that option and look for a multiyear deal in free agency. If that happens, Sisco could be eased into the starting role before the All-Star break next year, with the defensive-minded Caleb Joseph to serve as a stopgap.
San Francisco Giants: RHP Tyler Beede (Age: 23)
Command was the biggest question mark for Beede coming out of Vanderbilt, and he's answered those questions by lowering his walk rate from 4.7 BB/9 in college to 3.3 BB/9 as a pro.
He pitched to a 2.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 135 strikeouts in 147.1 innings at the Double-A level last season, and he doesn't have much left to prove at the minor league level.
Ty Blach has put himself in position to be the next man up in the rotation this year if injury strikes or Matt Cain can't hold down the No. 5 starter spot, but Beede could be the long-term answer once Cain's contract is off the books next offseason.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Alex Reyes (Age: 22)
Reyes has already made his mark in the big leagues, posting a 1.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 46 innings of work spanning five starts and seven relief appearances.
He had a real shot at winning the No. 5 starter spot heading into spring training this year but was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery.
Even if he's not ready for Opening Day next year, he'll be in the big leagues in some capacity as soon as he's cleared to throw and builds his arm back up.
2017 September Call-Up
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Arizona Diamondbacks: LHP Anthony Banda (Age: 23)
The Diamondbacks have a ton of starting pitching depth.
Zack Greinke, Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin will make up the starting rotation to begin the season, while Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley, Zack Godley, Matt Koch and Jorge De La Rosa all boast starting experience in the majors as well.
That likely means we won't see Banda until late in the season, but he's ready to show what he can do at the MLB level.
The left-hander went 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 150 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
Cleveland Indians: OF Bradley Zimmer (Age: 24)
The arrival of Zimmer may be directly tied to the health of Michael Brantley or the regression of Tyler Naquin.
If Brantley is forced to the disabled list again by his bum shoulder or Naquin falls off precipitously as a result of his .411 BABIP from a year ago, Zimmer could get the call.
If not, another full season in the minors to work on his plate discipline (171 K, 30.7 K%) wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
We'll go with a September call-up as the ultimate outcome, positioning him to compete for the starting center field job heading into 2018.
Houston Astros: RHP Francis Martes (Age: 21)
The Houston Astros failed to add a front-line starter in free agency or on the trade market, but they may very well have one in the making in Martes.
The right-hander went 9-6 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 125.1 innings in Double-A last year and he has the strong frame, big fastball and four-pitch repertoire to develop into a legitimate ace in the not-too-distant future.
Joe Musgrove is set to be part of the Opening Day staff, and David Paulino might be next up for a rotation spot among the team's young starters. That could leave Martes to provide a late-season spark before making a run at a starting gig of his own in 2018.
New York Yankees: SS Gleyber Torres (Age: 20)
How long can the Yankees delay the inevitable?
Torres followed up a solid season at the High-A level by hitting .403 with eight extra-base hits in the Arizona Fall League and then .448 with nine extra-base hits in 32 plate appearances this spring.
He's a superstar in the making.
An approach similar to what the Los Angeles Dodgers did with Corey Seager—giving him the month of September to get his feet wet and then handing him the starting job the following year—could be how the Yankees handle it.
Oakland Athletics: 2B/SS Franklin Barreto (Age: 21)
Barreto spent all but four games last season in Double-A, hitting .284/.342/.422 with 40 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases.
Looking ahead to next season, the second base position is wide open in Oakland, as veteran Jed Lowrie is entering the final year of his contract.
Chad Pinder and Joey Wendle could get the first crack at replacing him, but neither has a ceiling as high as Barreto's. A September call-up would put the team's top prospect in line for the everyday job heading into 2018.
2017 Midseason
6 of 7
Chicago White Sox: 2B Yoan Moncada (Age: 21)
The White Sox made it clear the Moncada era will begin in short order when they made the somewhat surprising decision to release Brett Lawrie earlier this spring.
Moncada has already been optioned to the minors, so he won't be there on Opening Day.
But how long can Tyler Saladino and Yolmer Sanchez reasonably be expected to hold him off?
After Moncada hit .319 with a 1.074 OPS this spring, it wouldn't be surprising to see him debut before the calendar flips to June.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger (Age: 21)
All signs indicate Bellinger will take over at first base when Adrian Gonzalez reaches free agency after the 2018 season.
He's ready to make an impact now, though.
After posting an .872 OPS with 26 home runs in the upper levels of the minors last season, he received a 55-grade hit tool and 65-grade power from MLB.com.
If Yasiel Puig struggles again or Andrew Toles isn't up to the task in left field, Bellinger could take over at a corner outfield spot before the All-Star break.
Milwaukee Brewers: CF Lewis Brinson (Age: 22)
A late-season surge by Keon Broxton—who hit .294/.399/.538 with 18 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases after returning from the minors July 26—earned him the starting center field job to start the 2017 season.
However, Brinson is knocking on the door after being acquired last summer as the headliner in the Jonathan Lucroy trade.
If Broxton turns in the breakout season some are predicting, it would be Domingo Santana who winds up as the odd man out in the Milwaukee outfield.
Either way, Brinson is close, and he looks like a big piece of the future for the rebuilding Brewers.
New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age: 21)
Rosario announced himself as a top-tier prospect with a .324/.374/.459 line that included 42 extra-base hits and 19 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A last season.
MLB.com wrote: "Rosario will be just 21 years old for all of the 2017 season and is already at the upper levels of the system. There's no reason to rush him, but the future impact shortstop could force the organization's hand if he continues to perform as he has."
Asdrubal Cabrera posted an .810 OPS with 30 doubles and 23 home runs last season, and he's back for the 2017 season with an $8.5 million option for 2018.
The veteran won't stand in the way of Rosario once he's ready, though, and that could be before the All-Star break rolls around.
Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age: 22)
Most expected Crawford to arrive in Philadelphia during the first half of last season.
Instead, he hit .250/.349/.339 between Double-A and Triple-A and wound up spending the entire season in the minors.
While that was undoubtedly a disappointing result, there's no reason to press the panic button with a player who is expected to be a franchise cornerstone for the rebuilding Phillies.
Freddy Galvis was a pleasant surprise last season with standout defense and 20 home runs, but his .241/.274/.399 line and 1.3 WAR don't paint the picture of a player who is going to stand in the way of a top prospect.
2017 Opening Day
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Atlanta Braves: SS Dansby Swanson (Age: 23)
Swanson debuted last August and went on to hit .302/.361/.442 with 11 extra-base hits in 145 plate appearances as the everyday shortstop.
He'll open the season as the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors and the likely No. 2 hitter in a Braves lineup that should benefit from a full season of Matt Kemp to protect Freddie Freeman.
A wealth of young talent will arrive on the scene for the Braves in the years to come, and Swanson is the torchbearer.
Boston Red Sox: LF Andrew Benintendi (Age: 22)
If you're picking against Benintendi for AL Rookie of the Year this season, you're doing it for the sake of presenting a contrarian argument, not because there's a better candidate.
The No. 7 pick in the 2015 draft can flat-out hit, and he posted a .295/.359/.476 line with 14 extra-base hits in 118 plate appearances after being called up last summer.
Chris Young could still see time in left field against tough left-handed pitching, but Benintendi should get all the playing time he can handle while hitting out of the No. 2 spot in a stacked Boston lineup.
Kansas City Royals: LHP Matt Strahm (Age: 25)
Strahm was called up last July to provide a needed left-handed presence in the Royals bullpen, and he gave them just that with a 1.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 22 innings of work.
He was originally expected to compete for a spot in the starting rotation this spring, but after Jason Hammel and Travis Wood were added late in free agency, it was decided he'd return to the bullpen for another year.
His fastball-curveball pairing plays up in a relief role, but he has a good enough changeup and the durability to carve out a spot in the rotation going forward. For now, he looks like the team's top setup option alongside Joakim Soria.
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age: 23)
The Pirates have yet to name a No. 5 starter, but after optioning Drew Hutchison to the minors, it's now a two-man battle between Glasnow and Trevor Williams.
It's clear who has had the better spring:
- Glasnow: 14.1 IP, 19 H, 9 ER, 6 BB, 23 K
- Williams: 17.2 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 18 K
However, it's also clear Glasnow has the higher ceiling, and he struck out nine over four innings of work in his most recent spring outing.
Command has always been the big question with the 6'8" right-hander, and last year was no different when he walked 81 batters in 140 total innings.
If the Pirates have seen enough this spring from a control standpoint, he could make a real difference in the rotation from the onset.
San Diego Padres: CF Manuel Margot (Age: 22)
A path has been cleared for both Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe to break camp with a starting spot in the Padres outfield.
The speedy center fielder hit .304/.351/.426 with 39 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases in Triple-A last season, and he's clearly ready for an MLB shot at this point.
He should be able to make an impact as a table-setter atop the lineup right out of the gates, but it's his glove that could wind up being even more valuable as a rookie.
MLB.com noted that he's "viewed by scouts as one of the top defensive players in the minors," and that will no doubt help what is shaping up to be a shaky pitching staff.
All regular-season stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, while spring stats come via MLB.com.
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