World Cup Power Rankings After Latest Round of Qualifiers
Welcome to the latest edition of the World Cup power rankings, a dedicated look at which nation appears the most likely to lift the trophy in Russia in 2018 at this moment in time.
This latest international break further paved the path of success (or failure!) for several countries, with the South American and European sections in particular producing illuminating results.
The African section played only friendlies, so their stock is hard to judge—particularly since some matches were abandoned and/or cancelled due to visa issues.
We haven't restricted the teams included in these rankings by using FIFA's qualifying allocation rules, so you will see more from one continent than can qualify and fewer from others.
Why? Because there's an awful lot of football to be played, and a team such as sixth-placed CONMEBOL side Ecuador probably still have a better chance of winning the World Cup than Slovakia, who sit in a play-off position in the UEFA standings.
Where Are...?
1 of 16
The Netherlands
Danny Blind was sacked following the Netherlands' 2-0 loss to Bulgaria. They've been absolutely wretched since the 2014 World Cup and are now in serious danger of failing to qualify for a second consecutive major international tournament.
Wales
Wales' disappointing qualifying campaign continued with a heated 0-0 draw with Republic of Ireland. The result allowed Serbia to move further ahead of them, opening up a four-point gap between The Dragons and the play-offs.
Australia
Australia's haul of four points during this international window is by no means poor, but put into context, it's actually short of what was needed. With Japan managing six, the Socceroos are outside the automatic qualifying spots and will rightly fear they don't make it to Russia.
32-31
2 of 16
32. South Korea (-1)
South Korea were involved in two close games during this break, squeezing past Syria and losing to China by the same 1-0 scoreline. It sees them drop a spot.
31. Iran (New!)
Death, taxes and 1-0 victories for Iran. In the previous edition of these rankings, they didn't feature because their lack of firepower is not conducive to winning the World Cup. However, with a gap of four points between themselves and second in Group A, they're the only AFC team you can absolutely bank on making it to the tournament.
30-26
3 of 16
30. Iceland (New!)
Iceland's hard-fought victory over Kosovo, in conjunction with Croatia's defeat of Ukraine, pushed them back into a play-off spot in Group I and into our rankings.
29. Ivory Coast (Stay)
A wondergoal from Jonathan Kodjia set the Ivory Coast on their way to success against 2018 hosts Russia, then a pitch invasion prevented them from doing the same against Senegal in Paris.
28. Morocco (Stay)
Two friendlies, two wins, two clean sheets. Both games were played in Marrakech to give Morocco that extra element of comfort, but the opponents played—Burkina Faso and Tunisia—are no slouches.
27. USA (+3)
The Bruce Arena effect? The USMNT snapped into life against Honduras, pummelling them 6-0 thanks to spectacular displays from Clint Dempsey and Christian Pulisic. They then picked up an acceptable draw in Panama. It's getting better.
26. Serbia (New!)
Serbia moved top of Group D with a victory over Georgia in Tbilisi, taking advantage of Republic of Ireland's draw. This changes their outlook considerably, but a question mark still remains over how consistently they can tie it all together.
25-21
4 of 16
25. Republic of Ireland (-1)
The Boys In Green faltered during this round of qualifiers, drawing 0-0 with Wales in a game that was completely overshadowed by Seamus Coleman's horrific injury.
24. Japan (+2)
Japan enjoyed one of the most successful international windows of any team, winning their two games by an aggregate score of 6-0 to move top of Group B in the AFC qualifying zone.
23. Greece (+2)
Greece drew 1-1 with Belgium in Brussels despite seeing two men sent off. It was another perfect example of the gritty, resilient style they've utilised so effectively for more than a decade, and it keeps them firmly fixed in a play-off spot.
22. Costa Rica (Stay)
A draw and a loss hardly constitutes success for Costa Rica over the last seven days, but they're still in a strong position in the Hexagonal stage table.
21. Egypt (+1)
Egypt played just one friendly during this window, beating Togo 3-0 with consummate ease. It's been a long time since the Pharoahs graced a World Cup, and it looks likely they'll return in style in 2018.
20-16
5 of 16
20. Russia (-1)
Russia failed to win either of their friendlies during the international break despite playing them on home soil. The loss to Ivory Coast should spark serious concern, as this Elephants side is distinctly average, but the last-gasp equaliser against Belgium might well provide the morale boost this squad sorely need.
19. Senegal (+2)
With African nations only playing friendlies during this international break, Senegal took the opportunity to test themselves against some of the best in their qualifying category. A draw with Nigeria looked set to be followed by the same result against Ivory Coast, but a pitch invasion forced the game to be abandoned.
18. Nigeria (+2)
Nigeria's international break really didn't go to plan, but that wasn't really their fault. They drew with Senegal thanks to a Kelechi Iheanacho equaliser from the spot, but their match with Burkina Faso was cancelled due to visa issues. They move up largely due a couple of sides previously ranked higher really messing things up.
17. Ecuador (-3)
This international window was disastrous for Ecuador, who lost both of their games—one of which was to Paraguay—and fell to sixth place in the CONMEBOL standings as a result.
16. Mexico (+2)
Two wins and two clean sheets for Mexico, who look by far the most impressive and consistent CONCACAF side at the moment.
15-11
6 of 16
15. Switzerland (+2)
The Swiss have been impeccable in qualifying, winning five games from five including one against reigning European champions Portugal. They face the Selecao again in the last fixture of qualifying, and in the meantime, they should work on scoring more to improve their goal difference—as it might be the difference between first and second in the group.
14. Poland (+2)
Robert Lewandowski seems to be firing Poland to the World Cup single-handedly; they're six points clear at the top of Group E, and he has eight goals in five games. They're in a really good spot.
13. Croatia (Stay)
Croatia's canter to Russia continued with a 1-0 victory over Ukraine. The starting XI was strong, and the bench included Juventus' Marko Pjaca, Napoli's Marko Rog and Real Madrid's Mateo Kovacic. That's depth!
12. England (Stay)
There's a buzz about Gareth Southgate's England, with the team receiving credit despite losing to Germany having sported a new-look, impressive 3-4-3 formation. The win over Lithuania was incredibly bog-standard, with ESPN FC's Nick Miller comparing it to capably filling in your own personal details on a form.
11. Argentina (-6)
Argentina are in serious trouble. The loss to Bolivia on Tuesday evening pushed them back into the play-off spot, and Lionel Messi has three more games on his suspension, so he can't help them clamber back upward for now. They're difficult to watch and in danger of missing the finals.
10. Belgium
7 of 16
Last Week: 10th
Movement: None
Belgium struggled immensely against Greece this past weekend, eventually labouring to a 1-1 draw. The fact that their opponents were reduced to nine men by the end of proceedings only made the result look worse, and it took a moment of brilliance from Romelu Lukaku to even scrape a point.
But context must be applied to the result, and with both Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne missing, it perhaps doesn't surprise that the Red Devils toiled against an incredibly stubborn defensive team. It doesn't harm their stock as they're still in a strong qualifying position.
9. Uruguay
8 of 16
Last Week: 8th
Movement: -1
Having lost both of their qualifying games during this international window, you might be wondering how Uruguay have only moved down one spot. Well, they've been a little lucky in how the rankings have shifted, with a couple of teams who were previously just below them now plummeting out of contention.
It should also be noted that, as badly as this period went for them, they're still in third place in the CONMEBOL qualifying table. Oscar Tabarez might well be tempted to write these results off as a blip, and with Luis Suarez suspended for one match and a red card shown to Jonathan Urretaviscaya in the other, it perhaps shouldn't surprise they faltered.
8. Colombia
9 of 16
Last Week: 15th
Movement: +7
James Rodriguez's Colombia used their frustrations with the national press to fuel two strong results during this international break, moving them into second place in the CONMEBOL qualifying.
The 1-0 win over Bolivia was a bit edgy, but the 2-0 victory over Ecuador in Quito was seriously impressive: the first goal included a little luck, but the second was superbly worked and helped topple a genuinely strong side.
It's amazing what two wins and six points can do for a team's outlook. Last week, Los Cafeteros seemed in danger of not qualifying; this week they're into the top 10 and rank as the third-best South American side.
7. Chile
10 of 16
Last Week: 9th
Movement: +2
Chile's 3-1 victory over Venezuela on Tuesday left some viewers very confused. Alexis Sanchez scored and assisted in yet another whirlwind performance for his country, surprising those who had heard Arsene Wenger lament the "terrible state" of the player's ankle to Sky Sports just over a week ago.
Previously, La Roja had lost to Argentina 1-0 in a typically chippy affair, but the three-point haul in the second match brought them right back into the thick of an extremely strong pack jostling for automatic qualification.
6. Portugal
11 of 16
Last Week: 7th
Movement: +1
Few teams have caused Portugal as much consternation throughout history as Hungary, and there was a feeling among neutrals that the Magyars might cause the reigning European champions problems once again when they met last week.
But it took just over half an hour for Andre Silva to put the Selecao ahead, and from there, they didn't look back. A 3-0 scoreline did not flatter them, as Fernando Santos' men flexed their muscles in front of an appreciative home crowd.
5. Italy
12 of 16
Last Week: 4th
Movement: -1
Italy's 2-0 win over Albania was far from smooth, both for on- and off-pitch reasons.
Gian Piero Ventura elected to use no substitutes as his 11 men battled against a stubborn opponent, although perhaps that's because they received a nine-minute rest mid-match as some travelling fans peppered the field with flares.
Daniele De Rossi converted his second penalty of qualifying, while Ciro Immobile netted his fifth with an impressive header.
They're still second in their group behind Spain on goal difference, and they're going to have to beat La Roja in order to qualify automatically for the finals at this rate.
4. Spain
13 of 16
Last Week: 6th
Movement: +2
In putting Spain 1-0 up against Israel last Friday, David Silva became the joint-fourth-highest goalscorer in his nation's history, drawing him level with Fernando Hierro. La Roja went on to win 4-1, with Vitolo, Diego Costa and Isco also netting. Silva then netted again in the friendly win over France, making that fourth spot his own.
The Israel victory keeps them top of a tight group, ahead of Italy only on goal difference (albeit by eight). Given how weak the other group participants are, everything points to Spain vs. Italy, in September later this year, as the key match in deciding who wins the group and who faces the play-offs.
3. France
14 of 16
Last Week: 3rd
Movement: None
France found things a little tougher than expected against Luxembourg but eventually emerged 3-1 winners thanks to goals from Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud.
They dominated long portions of the game but were continually stymied—either by last-ditch defending or the woodwork—with Ousmane Dembele threatening so much but delivering little.
Late on, Kylian Mbappe made his debut for Les Bleus, instantly skinning a defender and forcing a great save. That probably added another £5 million to his already extortionate price tag.
2. Germany
15 of 16
Last Round: 1st
Movement: -1
It was another successful international break for Joachim Low's Germany, but it wasn't enough for them to hold on to first place in our rankings.
A 1-0 friendly victory over England actually proved tough sledding and only came by virtue of their opponent fluffing their finishing lines, but you might also argue that's just typical of Die Mannschaft: find a way to win even when it doesn't seem likely.
Their actual qualifier brought more convincing success: a 4-1 win over Azerbaijan in Baku, with Andre Schurrle netting a brace. Qualification is now a near-certainty, having accrued 15 points from five games, but while they look damn good and have obvious tournament pedigree in their corner, another nation look even more scary and have usurped them at the top.
1. Brazil
16 of 16
Last Week: 2nd
Movement: +1
That nation is Brazil, who became the first country to officially qualify for the 2018 World Cup (excluding hosts Russia) on Tuesday evening as their 3-0 victory over Paraguay assured them a spot in the finals.
Days before they'd beaten Uruguay 4-1 in Montevideo—a hell of a result, with or without Luis Suarez on the pitch—to set up that possibility, then delivered another pummelling to set their course in stone.
Tite's record of winning every Brazil game since taking the reins continued, and the run of form they've put together is, quite simply, ominous. It's enough to see them displace Germany in the rankings, as they just look so fearsome and geared toward success.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
