Breaking Down Roger Federer's Chances of Winning 2017 Australian Open

Roger Federer has starred in many Grand Slam features, but the 2017 Australian Open might become his greatest return to glory. That is if the Swiss Maestro wins two more matches and holds up his record-extending 18th major championship.

Perhaps nobody has been more surprised than Federer at his superhuman comeback. After six months on the sidelines recovering from a knee injury, the 35-year-old legend rolled into the semifinals with a 92-minute straight-sets victory over Mischa Zverev.

"If someone would have told me I'd play in the semis against Stan, never would I have called that," he said, per ATP World Tour. "I figured it out eventually that he was playing on my days, but I never really looked in that quarter of the draw because that was just too unrealistic for me."

Long established as one of the greatest players of all time, Federer has not won a major since Wimbledon 2012. He has knocked on the door often enough but has usually been denied by King Novak Djokovic during the Serb's recent peak years. Prior, he had famously been archrival Rafael Nadal's punching bag, even on the Australian Open's hard courts.

But tennis fortunes feel upside down at the bottom of the world. Djokovic and world No. 1 Andy Murray are long gone, while Federer has turned back the clock with vintage smoothness and shotmaking genius. How has he adapted to surge back into contention? What are the odds and obstacles that he faces as he looks for a fifth title in Melbourne seven years after his last mini-dynasty?

SAEED KHAN/Getty Images

Return of the Swiss Legend

While fellow Swiss Wawrinka comes in as the U.S. Open champion and No. 4 ranking, Federer has swept the headlines and reminded the rest of the world who it was that turned the Alps into Mount Olympus. It's not just that Federer has been impressive in winning five matches so far, it's how he's getting it done and why he might be the favorite to still be standing in a wild tournament.

Federer's first two matches were enough for him to renew his competitive groove—at times sluggish but mostly building momentum with his strong service game. He mixed in his serves, especially out wide to pull opponents off the court. It often set up his forehand for a quick finish in the more open court, and he pounced on his volleys.

In the third round, the old Master destroyed No. 10 seed Tomas Berdych with quickness and power, turning Melbourne's Plexicushion into something that resembled an indoors exhibition.

"This was an absolute lesson ... how to be absolutely aggressive on the court," Berdych summarized, per the Sydney Morning Herald's Michael Gleeson. "I was put on my back foot with every single shot ... when I make my points in the game it was not by me."

PAUL CROCK/Getty Images

Offensive domination? Check plus.

In the fourth round, Federer misfired to go down two early breaks against No. 5 Kei Nishikori. Two things were notable in his comeback. First, he kept digging in, getting back those two breaks even though he would lose the set in the tiebreaker. He had to feel that he could control the match from that point on. Second, he was the fitter player in the fifth set, pushing with his offense and pulling away against a speedy defender with legs that are about a decade younger.

Resilient problem solving? Absolutely.

It was academic when he mercifully snuffed out Zverev, who remarked that the Swiss Genius has no equal.

"I think he did not really let me play," Zverev said, per ATP World Tour. "It's more like his shots were a little bit different than Andy's (Murray). It was definitely hard to read where he was going, where he's returning. He just has so many more options. How he can, like, outplay me or pass me. It was different, definitely different."

Federer's rested, firing on all cylinders and awaiting a grudge match against the blocky Wawrinka, who has become a big-match star with three majors in the last three years. What are the chances he can get through Wawrinka and win the final?

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Against the Odds

There was more hope than confidence in Federer's chances to win the Australian Open after six months off and a loaded bracket of veteran stars and rising newcomers.

Greg Garber of ESPN pointed out that Federer faced 21-1 odds of winning the tournament, even with a gracious nod to his illustrious past. The Nishikori win closed the gap dramatically and installed him as the 3.5-1 favorite.

But while scintillating offense and fan sentimentality are beautiful touches, there will be bigger, bolder challenges from more grinding opponents.

Michael Dodge/Getty Images

Federer is going to have many sublime shots against Wawrinka, be it the backhand flick up the line, sweet volleys or closeout forehands that bang into the sideboards. The challenge will be if he can sustain this against his adversary's blunter power. Ironman Stan has a lot more muscle than Nishikori, beginning with his serve and ending with the frozen ropes he hits with his one-handed backhand.

The match could go either way, but if it is long and physical, Wawrinka's strokes could wear down Federer. Federer must dictate play by dominating with his serve and staying the course with his opportunistic variety. He's more likely to track down extra balls on defense and create points when needed.

Another strong factor for Federer runs deeper than his 18-3 head-to-head record against Wawrinka. Since Wawrinka's rise in 2014, Federer has a 5-2 record with the two losses coming on clay. Wawrinka has never defeated Federer on hard courts and a lot of this is because Federer takes time away from the more protracted windup that Wawrinka needs to blister the ball.

Give Federer the rapid support of the crowd and we can calculate Federer at about 67 percent to win the match and land in the final.

Who would Federer meet in the final? If it's the emerging Grigor Dimitrov, the Swiss will be dealing with a talented player who has a little more power with his serve and forehand, similar flair and fleeter footwork. Other than that, the differences are about as big as, oh, 18 major titles.

Besides the 5-0 head-to-head record, all on hard courts, Federer is the more aggressive, heady player. Last year's third-round meeting at Melbourne saw Dimitrov shrink back further behind the baseline after they had split the first two sets. The Bulgarian had trouble competing as hard down the stretch.

Although Dimitrov is playing the best tennis of his life, he would find it hard to outhit Federer from the baseline, and Federer is the superior offensive creator with anything inside the baseline. Package that with all of Federer's experience on the big stage against a first-timer in a major final and Federer is about 85 percent to win that one.

All told, Federer to defeat Wawrinka (67 percent) and Dimitrov (85 percent) is about 57 percent overall to win the trophy.

PETER PARKS/Getty Images

Suppose Federer meets old rival Nadal? How much mental scarring remains from his 10-23 deficit of career matches? At Melbourne, Nadal has victories in 2009, 2012 and 2014, each one easier than the previous. But three years have passed, and Nadal has mostly been a shell of himself since the 2014 French Open.

Now, as if in some sort of cosmic response to the Maestro, Nadal's been stronger with his serve and forehand, and his fitness and belief is more like old-time Rafa, but he still comes in more as the underdog in how he must grind his way to points.

We've seen that movie before, and if there's one thing we've learned, Nadal's formula to hit high topspin at Federer's backhand has usually broken down the Swiss' defenses. He can hook his serve off the ad court and he likes a target at net to pinpoint his passing shots. He's a nightmare matchup for the Swiss, so we have to give at least even odds to the Spaniard. Yes, call it a coin toss.

All told, Federer to defeat Wawrinka (67 percent) and Nadal (50 percent) is about 34 percent overall to win the trophy. And if it happens, there will be gallons of ink spilled all over the weekend for what could be the most anticipated showdown of all time.

So it's a great opportunity for the mighty Federer without a prime Djokovic standing in the way. No question there are challenges with this final weekend, but the offensive-minded Swiss controls his own destiny with a revitalized touch of old-school nostalgia and new-age magic.