Australian Open 2017: Bold Predictions for the 2nd Week
Heading into the second week at the 2017 Australian Open, who would have believed that Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Angelique Kerber would be ousted by a threesome who were ranked No. 50, No. 117 and No. 38, respectively?
The bracket chaos has given hope to all players, but none more than a resurgent Roger Federer, who has quickly become the focus of the tournament. Will the Swiss Maestro win the championship at Melbourne for the first time in seven years and bag his 18th career major?
We look at the other surprising possibilities and odds in our "Bold Predictions" column for the second week. Who has a fighting chance to win the tournament, and who are the picks to win the title in the women's and men's brackets?
The script has been flipped Down Under, and the titles are up for grabs.
There Will Not Be an All-Swiss Semifinal
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If most results were going chalk, we might quickly pencil in Roger Federer vs. Stan Wawrinka for the semifinals. It would be the biggest meeting ever for the Swiss rivals, bigger than the 2014 Monte Carlo final or the 2014 World Tour Finals when it got heated and personal.
Some tennis followers might even dub this match worthy of being the final. After all, Federer has been rising after big victories over top-10 opponents, and he has been outstanding with his serve and aggressive mentality to finish points quickly.
This is also the best surface for Wawrinka's hammering groundstrokes. It was three years ago that he vanquished Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal on his way to his first major title. He gets more time to wind up his strokes off the slower surface and bigger hop, and he's going to need it if he plays Federer.
If?
While Federer is at least a 90 percent lock to end the Cinderella story of Mischa Zverev (the elder brother of Alexander Zverev, who is considered a strong candidate to be the future of tennis), Wawrinka will be in a dogfight to get through 2008 finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals.
Wawrinka is a big-match player who has learned to get better once the money is on the table, but a meeting against Tsonga could be a trap. The Frenchman has been the toughest player of the tournament with his first serve so far. Plus Wawrinka, the recent U.S. Open champion, is still unlikely to win two majors in a row. He could be ripe for the picking.
Upset special? Yes, Tsonga will get it done with big serving, steady backhand and more composure than his Swiss opponent. The way this tournament is going, it's a coin-toss match that could land heads for the Frenchman.
It will be Federer vs. Tsonga for a place in the final.
Odds of Rafael Nadal to Win the Title? Roll a Die
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It might have been the best match of the first week. Somehow, 14-major winner Rafael Nadal picked himself up in the fourth set and outlasted rising star Alexander Zverev, grinding out two lengthy games in the fifth set and willing himself to victory.
There were plenty of great signs to like about Nadal's effort. He looked stronger, a little quicker and fought with more belief in his eyes. He was just as fit in the fifth set while his younger opponent cramped up. It's that kind of defensive and physical effort that could see him contend again for the French Open title.
His serve had good power and was cutting angles wide off the ad court. And he played a thinking man's match, refusing to just groove his high topspin forehand into Zverev's backhand hitting zone. Instead, Nadal gave him a diet of punchy slices, many wobbling knuckleballs that forced his tall opponent to bend down more and pick up a variety of junk.
It all looks good for challenges in the more loaded bottom half of the draw against athletic Gael Monfils, super-serving No. 3 seed Milos Raonic and a young, talented semifinalist like Dominic Thiem or Grigor Dimitrov.
It's possible that Nadal goes on to the final, maybe a one in three chance, so we might even give him about 17 percent odds (one in six chance) to win the final and hold his second Melbourne trophy.
Imagine if he gets old super rival Federer in the final? It's not too early to think about at this point, and it's certainly more possible without obstacles like Murray and Djokovic to block the way.
But Nadal will find it tough to get through three more top-10 quality opponents. There will be no destiny match against the artful Roger.
Which Williams Sister to the Final?
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While Serena Williams has roared ahead as the clear favorite to win the Australian Open, elder sister Venus has looked no less impressive in crashing the quarterfinals party. She gets a solid test against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who is coming off a fine 2016—her best year since an upstart 2011.
But Venus is playing with superior power, and she has that beautiful backhand.
She should roll through Pavlyuchenkova, and she has been a smarter tactician and more consistent than potential semifinalist Garbine Muguruza (if Muguruza can get through the hit-as-if-I've-got-nothing-to-lose Coco Vandeweghe, who plastered Kerber and may as well have eaten her lunch, too).
So it's on to the finals for Venus, who might get sister Serena in one last Williams sisters major final. It would be their first Grand Slam final since Serena won the 2009 Wimbledon title at elder sister's expense.
It could happen, and we are picking Venus to do her part, but what about Serena? Stay tuned for a later slide.
Grigor Dimitrov Could Shock the World
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Bulgarian star Grigor Dimitrov looked like a rising star in 2014 when he won three titles on three different surfaces and got to the Wimbledon semifinals. Since, his steady decline has been mystifying, ranging from suspect fitness, questionable motivation and passive play from the baseline.
Since late summer, Dimitrov has been streaking back toward the top 10, capped by an impressive title at Brisbane.
He's kept his momentum and played with greater strength and decisiveness, and he's now tapping into his potential.
Is the future now for the 25-year-old Dimitrov?
I like his chances to get through the upstart Denis Istomin, who has enjoyed the ride after upsetting Djokovic in the second round. From there, Dimitrov should overcome softer strategist David Goffin in the quarterfinals.
Dimitrov should be a semifinalist with a strong chance to defeat Milos Raonic. Dimitrov has the more athletic all-court game, a strong serve, great defensive instincts and plenty of ups and downs to appreciate just how hard he needs to work now. (Maybe Nick Kyrgios should buddy up with him for a little perspective.)
The bottom half of the bracket is more balanced, with possible finalists in Nadal, Raonic and Goffin, but since this is "Bold Predictions," I'm going with "Baby Federer" Dimitrov to get his first major final in an "All-Federers" match. More on that later.
Karolina Pliskova to Win the Australian Open
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Serena Williams is looking more like her former self. Like Federer, rest and recovery from injuries has seemingly given her the leg power and confidence she needs to bowl through her opponents, and so far, she has.
Meanwhile, Karolina Pliskova came into Melbourne as one of the few players who could match Serena's power. She defeated the American in the U.S. Open semifinal and looks to be the next new major winner, especially on a fast surface like Wimbledon or the U.S. Open.
But why not on Australia's Plexicushion surface? The Czech star is not just a big server. Her footwork has improved, if not as fleet as other top stars, and her weapons outweigh her disadvantages. She rips through the court on both sides and has that growing fearlessness that will win big matches.
Pliskova survived a 2-5 third-set deficit against Jelena Ostapenko to win a 10-8 thriller and give her that further taste of resolve that she can battle back and win. She should be prepared for Daria Gavrilova in the fourth round and eventually Serena in the semifinals.
The Serena-Pliskova match could be the de facto final, and history would obviously be in Serena's corner. The American legend has been in every situation, and it's just a matter of time—perhaps a week—until she wins major No. 23.
But Pliskova's best tennis will be enough to defeat Serena in the semifinal and Venus in the final. It's also noteworthy that nearly two decades have passed since top players found out how difficult it was to defeat both Williams sisters in the final weekend.
It's a tall order, but Pliskova has the talent and game to do it.
Roger Federer to Win the 2017 Australian Open
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Dare we say it? The bracket has been busted, the field wide open and the Swiss Maestro is poised to run through journeyman surprise Mischa Zverev in the quarterfinals. The road to a fifth Australian Open title, which felt like a longshot last week, is not only plausible, but perhaps the most likely result for all the remaining men.
Five reasons to support Federer for champion:
- He's produced dominating tennis with his serve, crushing a fine player in Tomas Berdych.
- He outdueled Kei Nishikori in five sets. That's important because the Japanese star has the younger legs and figured to win a grueling match.
- His intelligence and attack game will not be stymied by Novak Djokovic. That's a huge mental advantage for Federer, who was helpless against the Serb's peak run.
- Fellow Swiss rival Wawrinka could go down to Tsonga, but either way Federer has the variety to problem-solve and win without his very best tennis.
- His legs are fresh, he's hungry and he understands this great opportunity. Nobody knows how to win better than Federer behind a rollicking crowd of pro-Federer supporters.
Of course, he would rather not see Nadal in the final. The Spaniard has usually dominated Federer in major clashes, including the 2009 final, and the 2012 and 2014 semifinals in Melbourne. Granted, Federer and Nadal are at different phases of their career, and the matchup is still only a possibility given that Nadal has to get through a few tough matches as well.
Federer looks like the favorite in the top of the bracket, unless Wawrinka is dealing his baseline bullets with sublime accuracy. And if he does get to the final, he should have the game to create more problems for Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem or Dimitrov. Nadal is a different animal, but we're not picking Nadal to get through.
Earlier, we picked Dimitrov to be the surprise of the bottom bracket, but if he meets up with Federer in the final, the difference is that Federer is better with short balls, attacking early and putting more pressure on his opponents.
Why wait until Wimbledon? Take Federer now for his 18th major title.
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