Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two AFC East teams coming off wins will square off at MetLife Stadium on Saturday night, when the Miami Dolphins (8-5) visit the New York Jets (4-9) as small road favorites.

The Dolphins edged the Arizona Cardinals, 26-23, as two-point home underdogs, but they lost starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Jets upset the San Francisco 49ers, 23-17, in overtime as three-point road dogs after overcoming an early 14-0 deficit. 

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as three-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 21.7-21.4, Jets (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami backup quarterback Matt Moore has not started a game since 2011 but is 13-12 during his career in that role. He has been one of the coveted reserves at the position over the years due to his experience.

The good news for the Dolphins is that Tannehill might not miss the rest of the season and linebacker Kiko Alonso also hopes to make his return from thumb and hamstring injuries. Alonso is their leading tackler and would obviously be a key player in trying to help contain New York's running game that tore up San Francisco's defense last week in the come-from-behind victory.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets showed a lot of heart and determination in not giving up after going down by two touchdowns less than five minutes into their Week 14 game. Running back Bilal Powell took over for the injured Matt Forte (knee) and rushed for 145 yards on 29 carries, including a 19-yard jaunt for the game-winning score in overtime.

New York quarterback Bryce Petty also picked up his first career win with a solid outing, completing 23 of 35 passes for 257 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. The Jets have also gone 5-1 against the spread in their past six meetings with Miami, and head coach Todd Bowles is coaching for his job at this point.

Smart pick

The Dolphins have been dismal in December recently, going 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games during the month. The warm-weather team has been known to struggle on the road when the temperatures dip, losing 38-6 at the Baltimore Ravens as 3.5-point dogs to kick off this month.

In addition, Miami has struggled in prime time lately, going 3-11 straight up and 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games at night. So take New York as a home dog at online sports betting sites here.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in five of the Dolphins' last six games on the road against the Jets.

The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Jets.

The Jets are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.