2017 NFL Draft: Draft Radar Heading into NFL Week 15

It was a quiet week on the NFL draft prospect front, but things will be picking up as bowl season approaches. Players are beginning to declare, including a few star running backs that are bound for instant success at the next level.

In one of college football's best rivalries, one member of Army's defense had a big day. Meanwhile, draft myths are already off and running. They must be stopped before they spread any further.

Every year, there are fantastic debates at the top of the draft. It looks like 2017 won't disappoint, as many are torn between Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. We'll cover that, and we'll also break down three of the biggest wild-card prospects who could end up as steals.

Stock Up

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Jeremy Timpf, LB, Army

Each year, a handful of players with pro potential stick out in one of college football’s best rivalry games: Army vs. Navy. While Navy linebacker Micah Thomas may have been the best prospect on the field, he’s only a junior.

But Army linebacker Jeremy Timpf was on the other side. Although undersized at 6’1", 225 pounds, he had a hand in two sacks, two more quarterback hits and six total pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s fighting to prove he has special teams potential at the next level. 

Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma

While Mixon didn’t have a game this week, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller passed along interesting info on the previously troubled running back. After hearing details of his assault arrest, Miller believes Mixon has potential to now go in the top 32 picks. The talent has always been obvious, but his arrest put gigantic question marks around his draft stock. It now appears at least a handful of teams are comfortable using a high selection on him.

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh

James Conner officially declared for the NFL draft this week. If there was a "stock up" list for the entire season, I couldn’t find a better candidate.

As most of you are aware, Conner’s 2015 season was lost not only because of a significant leg injury, but because of cancer. He beat cancer, returned for the 2016 season and rumbled for over 1,000 yards, 5.6 yards per carry and 16 touchdowns. With his power, I project him as a Day 2 selection. He has a running style like former Bengal and Patriot Corey Dillon, and he should go on to have a great NFL career.

Eye-Popping Prospect Numbers: Disruption Rate

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While sacks look great on paper (and on film, of course), there is so much more to evaluating pass-rusher disruption. One key formula is disruption rate. This stat shows how often a pass-rusher records a pressure (sack, QB hit or QB hurry) per rush attempt.

Here are some numbers from a handful of the top edge-rushers from 2016:

• Myles Garrett, Texas A&M: 310 attempts, 51 total pressures, disruption rate of 16.5 percent
• Tim Williams, Alabama: 222 attempts, 51 total pressures, disruption rate of 23 percent
• Derek Barnett, Tennessee: 349 attempts, 64 total pressures, disruption rate of 18.3 percent
• Charles Harris, Missouri: 358 attempts, 60 total pressures, disruption rate of 16.8 percent
• Takkarist McKinley, UCLA: 336 attempts, 57 total pressures, disruption rate of 17 percent
• Joe Mathis, Washington: 120 attempts, 31 total pressures, disruption rate of 25.8 percent

MythBusters: 2017 NFL Draft Edition

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"Deshaun Watson is a run-first quarterback"

Watson might not be the perfect pocket passer (not many prospects ever are), but he’s not a "runner" at the position either. Watson does a nice job keeping his eyes downfield while extending plays with his legs. This should be considered a positive trait for him, not a knock.

"Jabrill Peppers is the best defensive back prospect in this draft"

That honor should go to LSU safety Jamal Adams, the most complete defensive back available in this class. He has the same downhill speed and attacking style as Peppers, but he’s more physical and much more impressive in coverage.

"The wide receiver class is bad"

There is a difference between a bad class and one that lacks elite talent. This wide receiver class is missing the early first-round punch of previous years, but it features a lot of Day 2 prospects that could mold into No. 2 and 3 targets in their pro careers.

Clemson’s Mike Williams, Washington’s John Ross and Western Michigan’s Corey Davis are in a fight to be the first wideout off the board, but there are a lot of solid players behind them. Heisman Trophy finalist Dede Westbrook might be small (6'0", 175 lbs), but he’s electric as a vertical target who also creates in space. Cooper Kupp has dominated the FCS level for a while and has the all-around talent to be a factor in the NFL. SMU’s Courtland Sutton is a "go up and get it" target that will flourish with better quarterback play.

Christian McCaffrey Declares for the NFL Draft

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Last week, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller broke the news that Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey will declare for the 2017 NFL draft (confirmed by McCaffrey the following day).

In a star-studded running back class, the Stanford talent has somehow become the forgotten man, even after he was a Heisman finalist in 2015. He caught the injury bug in 2016, but he still put up good numbers. On 251 rushing attempts, he ran for 1,590 yards (6.3 yards per carry) with 13 touchdowns and 43 missed tackles forced.

What makes McCaffrey a dynamic threat is his receiving ability. He caught 37 of his 45 targets for 311 yards (297 coming after the catch) with three touchdowns and 21 more missed tackles forced. He’s a special runner in the open field and a top-50 lock in the spring.

The Great Debate: Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook?

STEVEN CANNON/Associated Press

Much like the 2015 class that featured Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, the 2017 NFL draft will have two superstar running backs headlining the top. Who will be taken first?

Leonard Fournette is a powerhouse runner who has decimated SEC would-be tacklers at times. His speed in the second level of the field opens up big plays, and his ability as a pass-catcher has flown a bit under-the-radar.

As for Florida State’s Dalvin Cook, he might be the biggest home run-hitter in this entire draft. He’s elusive in the open field, gliding step by step. He won’t lower his shoulder and deliver the same type of boom Fournette does, but his running style could mean a longer and more successful NFL career.

These backs have more talent than the 2015 group of Gordon and Gurley, and it’s hard to knock either of them. They're beginning to form one of the most intriguing draft storylines to come.

3 of the 2017 NFL Draft’s Biggest Wild Cards

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Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Physically, Mahomes has as much talent as any quarterback prospect in this class. Mechanically, he’s a bit of a mess right now, and he's coming from a Texas Tech offense that doesn't translate to the NFL. Does he have the IQ to pick up an NFL offense and hone his fantastic skill set? If he does, he could be a draft day steal.

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee

Reeves-Maybin lost much of his season to injury, and the draft hype around him has gone very quiet. He’s undersized at 6’1", 225 pounds, but he has the skill set to be a weak-side linebacker in the NFL. His range is off the charts for a linebacker. If he plays in a defense behind a stout front, he can fly around and make plays right away. The biggest questions remain around his health and his weight.

Joe Mathis, EDGE, Washington 

You probably read the disruption rates and noticed Mathis stuck out like a sore thumb. He was fantastic as a pass-rusher for the Huskies before losing his season to a foot injury. The senior displayed topnotch ability to fly off the edge and get in the pocket with dip and bend moves. While his sample size is small, he could pay huge dividends for a team that rolls the dice on him as a value pick.

All advanced statistics via Pro Football Focus (unless otherwise noted).