Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-0 straight up in their last five divisional showdowns with the Baltimore Ravens and 4-1 against the spread. But it's a struggling Bengals outfit that stumbles into Baltimore to take on the rival Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Ravens opened as three-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.5-19.3 Ravens. (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati is coming off two tough losses in a row, including a 16-12 decision to Buffalo last week. The Bengals spotted the Bills an early touchdown and rallied to lead 12-10 at the half, but they came up empty in the second half and fell outright as three-point favorites.

Part of the problem came when wide receiver A.J. Green left the game with a tweaked hamstring in the third quarter and did not return.

Cincinnati kicker Mike Nugent missed two extra-point attempts on a windy day at Paul Brown Stadium, which proved crucial. The Bengals drove into Buffalo territory late, but needing a touchdown instead of a field goal, they had to throw the ball in the end zone on the last play of the game, where it fell incomplete.

Two weeks ago Cincinnati lost by a point to the New York Giants. Just before that a missed extra point proved costly in a tie game with Washington. With a couple of plays here and there, the Bengals could be a .500 team instead of one that's three games under.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore had won two games in a row, but lost last week at Dallas 27-17. The Ravens played the hottest team in football to a 10-10 halftime tie and only trailed by one score late, but they gave up an insurance field goal with two minutes to go and missed out on the push of the spread as seven-point underdogs.

The Baltimore offense came up with 368 yards against a pretty good Cowboys defense, but as a team the Ravens also committed 12 penalties for 136 yards.

Two weeks ago Baltimore beat the Cleveland Browns 28-7, covering as a seven-point favorite. Just before that the Ravens defeated Pittsburgh 21-14 as three-point home dogs. At 5-5 overall, Baltimore headed into the week tied with the Steelers for the lead in the AFC North—and owns the tiebreaker.

Smart pick

By the numbers, Cincinnati owns an edge on offense, but that unit is now missing both Green and running back Giovani Bernard. Meanwhile, Baltimore owns the advantage on defense. Despite recent happenings in this rivalry, the smart money in this spot rides the Ravens.

Betting trends

The Bengals are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Ravens.

The Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games at home against teams with losing records.

The Bengals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.