NFL Week 11 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night

The Kansas City Chiefs are the model of consistency in 2016, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anything but.

The Chiefs are tied for first in the AFC West with the Oakland Raiders, and they have won their last five games in a row. They are coming off a memorable come-from-behind 20-17 victory at Carolina in Week 10, and they get a chance to increase that win streak to six games against the up-and-down Bucs.

Tampa Bay had a one-sided 36-10 win over the Chicago Bears last week, but that victory followed back-to-back home losses to Oakland and Atlanta.

The Chiefs are not going to come at the Bucs or any other opponent with a high-powered offense, but head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith are able to find the weaknesses in the defense and attack with a short-passing game and a running attack.

The Chiefs focus well on the task at hand and play with patience and confidence. They also know that the defense has a chance to create turnovers thanks to cornerback Marcus Peters and his five interceptions and the pass-rushing ability of Dee Ford and his 10 sacks.

Tampa Bay is depending on quarterback Jameis Winston to avoid turnovers and make big plays. Winston has thrown 19 touchdown passes, but he has also tossed 10 interceptions.

The Bucs also struggle to move the ball on the ground, ranking 17th in that category. As a result, the pressure is clearly on Winston to carry the ball on his shoulders.

That may be too much to ask against a steady team like the Chiefs. Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite in this game, according to Odds Shark, and we like the favored Chiefs to win the game and cover the spread.

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Prediction
New Orleans at Carolina (TNF)	CAR -3	52	New Orleans; Under
Chicago at N.Y. Giants	NYG -7.5	45	N.Y. Giants; Under
Arizona at Minnesota	E	40.5	Minnesota; Over
Baltimore at Dallas	DAL -7	45	Dallas; Over
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND -3	52.5	Indianapolis; Over
Buffalo at Cincinnati	CIN -2.5	47.5	Cincinnati; Under
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT -7.5	48	Pittsburgh; Under
Jacksonville at Detroit	DET -6.5	47	Detroit; Over
Tampa Bay at Kansas City	KC -7.5	44.5	Kansas City; Under
Miami at L.A. Rams	MIA -1.5	40	Miami; Under
Philadelphia at Seattle	SEA -6.5	44	Philadelphia; Over
New England at San Francisco	NE -13	50.5	New England; Under
Green Bay at Washington	WAS -2.5	50.5	Green Bay; Over
Houston at Oakland (MNF)	OAK -5.5	46	Oakland; Over

Chicago at New York Giants

The New York Giants appear to be getting their act together. After beating the Cincinnati Bengals 21-20 on Monday night, the Giants have won four games in a row, and their 6-3 record leaves them in a solid position to earn a playoff spot this season.

The big difference for the Giants this season is their ability to win close games and come through in the fourth quarter. The Giants were unable to do that in former head coach Tom Coughlin's final season, but first-year head coach Ben McAdoo is getting results in that area.

The Giants have an excellent chance to extend that win streak against the Chicago Bears. As if their awful Week 10 performance against Tampa Bay wasn't bad enough, the Bears lost top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to a four-game suspension relating to performance-enhancing drugs this week.

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At the same time, Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman reported that quarterback Jay Cutler has lost the locker room. Head coach John Fox does not appear to have any answers.

The Giants are 7.5-point favorites, and with weapons like Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Sterling Shepard, they should be able to put the Bears away with little trouble.

Jacksonville at Detroit

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The Detroit Lions moved into first place in the NFC North during their bye week as the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers both went down in flames in Week 10.

The Lions and quarterback Matthew Stafford return to action this week at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Both teams have the offensive firepower to light up the scoreboard throughout the game at Ford Field. Stafford has become one of the top quarterbacks from a statistical perspective, as he has completed 67.3 percent of his passes and has an 18-5 touchdown-interception ratio.

Blake Bortles has not achieved the same level of success, but he has thrown 16 TD passes, and he has a pair of superb receivers in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson.

The total in this game is listed at 47 points, and we see this as a gift that Las Vegas is offering. These two teams should have that total covered before the end of the third quarter, and this game is an easy over.

Prop Bets

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Props often become more plentiful as the season progresses, and one of the props offered this week concerns Rams rookie quarterback Jared Goff as he makes his first career start against the Miami Dolphins.

Odds Shark reported that props involving Goff's passing yardage, touchdowns, completions and interceptions are being offered.

Bettors can wager whether Goff will exceed 230.5 passing yards, and the odds are -115 (bet $115 to win $100) on either option. If bettors wager that Goff will throw more than 1.5 TD passes, they will receive $145 profit for their $100 wager, but a bet that he will not reach that total requires players to risk $175 to net a profit of $100.

Bettors who believe Goff will complete more than 20.5 passes will earn $100 for risking $115, and those who believe that he won't reach that total are offered the same wager.

Bettors who believe Goff will throw at least one interception must wager $175 to win $100, and those who believe that Goff will not throw a pick will risk $100 to win $145.

The last wager appears to be the best bet. We see Goff throwing at least two interceptions in his debut, so we are willing to risk the $175 to win $100.