NFL Week 11 Picks: Predictions for Each Game's Odds and Over/Under Lines

For NFL teams still sitting around .500, Week 11 can serve as a tipping point. 

The playoff picture is still in its infancy, but it's definitely starting to kick some teams out. A win at this point means a little more than an early-season win, and a loss is a little tougher to bounce back from now. 

Looking across the league, there are plenty of teams that aren't quite looking at must-win situations, but they can probably start looking up vacation spots in January if they don't come out on the right side in Week 11. 

Here's a look at the complete schedule along with the latest odds from Odds Shark, a prediction for each game and a closer look at some of the more intriguing swing games in the league this week. 

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Prediction
New Orleans at Carolina (TNF)	CAR -3.5	52.5	CAR/U
Chicago at N.Y. Giants	NYG -7	45.5	NYG/O
Arizona at Minnesota	E	40.5	MIN/U
Baltimore at Dallas	DAL -7	45	DAL/O
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND -3	52.5	TEN/O
Buffalo at Cincinnati	CIN -3	47	CIN/U
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT -8.5	49	PIT/U
Jacksonville at Detroit	DET -6.5	47	DET/O
Tampa Bay at Kansas City	KC -7.5	44.5	TB/O
Miami at L.A. Rams	MIA -1.5	40	MIA/O
Philadelphia at Seattle	SEA -6.5	44	PHI/O
New England at San Francisco	NE -13	51	NE/U
Green Bay at Washington	WAS -2.5	50.5	WAS/U
Houston at Oakland (MNF)	OAK -5.5	46	OAK/U

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

The NFL landscape is marked by several close division races, but the one in the AFC South is especially intriguing. The Houston Texans are currently in the driver's seat, but they might not be as well off as others think (more on that later). 

Behind the Texans are the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts, and this game should determine who is No. 2 in that hierarchy. 

The Colts have the advantage of hosting the game with a win over the Titans on their resume already. Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns against Tennessee in Week 7. 

They also have the benefit of coming off a bye week—one that should not only make them healthy, but give them a renewed sense of urgency. 

"I felt like the sense of urgency was through the roof today," nose tackle Zach Kerr said, per Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star. "You're off work a couple days, and then you're like, I got nothing to do, I'm bored. I miss football. Guys were flying around today. It felt great just being out there."

But the Titans from Week 7 don't look much like the ones that will travel to Indianapolis on Sunday. 

Marcus Mariota is coming off the best performance of his career against the Green Bay Packers. The Titans quarterback had 295 passing yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions as the Titans offense mauled Green Bay to the tune of 47 points. 

That's bad news for a Colts defense that is 29th in points allowed per game at 28.4. 

Luck is undefeated against the Titans in his career, but they've never had a quarterback that has the ability to match his play against Indy's porous defense. 

That might not be the case on Sunday. The Titans could get a season-defining win and become real players in the AFC South. 

Prediction: Titans 31, Colts 27

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

It's probably too late to change the rules so that no one from the NFC North has to be in the playoffs, so someone from Green Bay, Minnesota or Detroit has to start winning more consistently. 

If the Packers have any hope of becoming that team, they need to start against the Washington Redskins this week. 

That creates a great deal of tension in this game, because the Redskins face pressure to win this week from a playoff picture that currently has them clinging to the No. 6 seed by a half-game over the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles by virtue of the tie in their 5-3-1 record. 

For the Packers, this is the kind of season that could cause a shake-up from the top down. Chris Simms detailed why head coach Mike McCarthy should be gone after a 4-5 start for the Pack this season:

For Washington, this has been a season in which the early returns on committing to Kirk Cousins as the franchise quarterback have paid off. He's thrown 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions and leads an offense that is ninth in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. 

One thing the Redskins offense has excelled at doing is avoiding three-and-outs. According to the team's Twitter account, the offense leads the league in that category:

That will be important on Sunday if the Redskins want to keep the Packers out of sorts. By developing a rhythm of their own on offense, they should be able to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hand and continue the trend of uninspired performances for Green Bay.

Washington is at home with confidence and a playoff spot in sight. Green Bay is on the verge of implosion in the offseason if it can't even contend for the NFC North title in a relatively down year.

This one will be worth watching, but the Redskins could win comfortably if the Packers have already given up on their coach in the midst of three straight losses.  

Prediction: Redskins 23, Packers 13 

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders

Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty Images

Intentional or not, the NFL gave Mexico one of the best games of the week. 

Oakland and Houston are two teams that appear to be playoff-bound at this point. The Texans are in the driver's seat of the AFC South, while the Oakland Raiders are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots for the best record in the AFC. 

The difference is that one team is exactly as it appears, while the other might be looking at a late-season meltdown.

The Texans would appear to be in a great position. They have the best record in a division that may or may not be really mediocre. And as Andrew Siciliano of NFL Network noted, the schedule looks favorable going forward:

It's important to keep in mind that things like record are notorious for being swayed by a small sample size. For whatever reason, the advanced metrics and stats just don't align with the Texans being a great team, even if the record backs it up. 

For instance, the Texans are 30th in the league in total DVOA. The Raiders rank seventh. 

Traditional stats just don't line up with the Texans being great, either. Without J.J. Watt, the pass rush is pedestrian (17th in sacks per game), and the offense is last in the league in yards per play. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders have already shown they're legit. Oakland's offensive line is among the best in football, and it showed against the Denver Broncos' elite defensive front. 

Shaun O'Hara of NFL.com elaborated on the dominant nature of Oakland's hogs up front: 

"

In addition to a strong run-game performance, the Raiders' pass protection was superb for most of the night. The lone exception was the sack Austin Howard gave up to Von Miller. Howard allowed one other QB hit, the only two times the O-line allowed the defense to get to quarterback Derek Carr. That's remarkable, considering the fact that Miller ranks second in the NFL in sacks (9.5) and that, coming into the game, Denver led the NFL in sacks (26) and QB hits (75). Donald Penn had another excellent performance, doing a great job against DeMarcus Ware and Shane Ray and cementing himself as one of the top left tackles in the league.

"

Eventually, the Texans' record and subpar play have to even out. While this appears to be a big-time matchup for the audience in Mexico, this has blowout potential with the Raiders truly playing like one of the league's top teams. 

Prediction: Raiders 24, Texans 10