NFL Picks Week 11: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, over-Under Lines and Odds

Believe it or not, we're only a couple days away from the start of Week 11. There are 14 games on the upcoming slate, beginning with the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers on Thursday night.

This, of course, means there are plenty of wagering opportunities ahead. We're going to examine some of the top bets. We'll be running down the full schedule along with the early lines—courtesy of our friends at Odds Shark.

We're also going to make our predictions for each game against the spread and take a look at some of the top early over/under picks and prop bets for Week 11.

Week 11 Schedule and Odds

Game	Line	Prediction
New Orleans at Carolina	CAR -3.5	CAR
Jacksonville at Detroit	DET -7	JAX
Baltimore at Dallas	DAL -7	BAL
Buffalo at Cincinnati	CIN -3.5	BUF
Tampa Bay at Kansas City	KC -7.5	TB
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	PIT -9	PIT
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND -3	IND
Chicago at NY Giants	NYG -7	NYG
Arizona at Minnesota	Even	ARI
Miami at Los Angeles	LA -1	LA
Philadelphia at Seattle	SEA -6	SEA
New England at San Francisco	NE -13.5	NE
Green Bay at Washington	WAS -2.5	WAS
Houston at Oakland	OAK -6	OAK

Top Picks for Week 11

Oakland (-6) Over Houston

Not only did the Houston Texans steal quarterback Brock Osweiler away from the Denver Broncos in 2016, but the Texans have tried to steal Denver's blueprint for success.

What Houston wants to do is win games with defense and with an efficient ball-controlling offense. Unfortunately, Houston's defense just isn't on the same level as Denver's. Pro Football Focus rates the Broncos second in overall defense and rates Houston 14th overall.

Even if Houston was Denver's equal, we saw what the Raiders can do to a team like the Broncos two weeks ago. Oakland beat its rival by 10 points and it did so in convincing fashion—with more than 200 yards of offense on the ground.

“Our guys really attacked it well,” Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said, per Kyle Martin of the team's official website. “Went after them and ran the ball and ran it effectively enough to be able to stay with them.”

If the Raiders can impose their will on one of the best defenses in the league and come away with a 10-point win, they should be able to beat the inconsistent Texans by a touchdown.

Green Bay and Washington OVER 50.5

Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers defense appears to be struggling in a big way. The Packers have given up at least 30 points in each of their last three games and just surrendered 47 points to the Tennessee Titans.

This week, the Packers face a Washington Redskins team that ranks fourth in total offensive yardage (407.8 yards per game). Given the fact that Washington's defense is rated just 22nd overall by Pro Football Focus. this game feels like one with real shootout potential.

This is why we feel good about taking the over in this contest. Of course, it helps our confidence level knowing that each of Green Bay's past three contests has gone over 50 total points.

Miami and Los Angeles UNDER 41

If the Los Angeles Rams were playing themselves, there's virtually no way they'd reach a 41-point over/under. As a team, the Rams average just 15.4 points per game. Defensively, though, L.A. allows only 19.2 points per game.

It is this combination that gives us confidence in the under for the Rams matchup with the Miami Dolphins. Each of the Rams' last three games has produced fewer than 30 total points, and six of their nine games in 2016 have produced fewer than 31.

The Dolphins have improved their offense dramatically since discovering an offensive identity behind running back Jay Ajayi. However, Miami still only averages 22.7 points per game.

Since the Dolphins are on the road (though they stayed in California all week) and this should be a run-oriented game for both teams, we're going to predict a low-scoring affair.

New Orleans and Carolina OVER 24.5 First-Half Points

One interesting prop bet we found over at OddsChecker.com is a first-half spread for the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers game. The spread is set at just under 25 points, and we're inclined to take the over here.

Given the explosiveness of the New Orleans offense and the tendency of the Saints defense to give ground, we feel the stage should be set for a lot of early point-scoring.

The Saints are currently rated fourth in overall offense and 25th in overall defense by Pro Football Focus.

The last time the Saints and Panthers met, the two teams combined for 79 total points. Thirty-four of those points came in the first half. It doesn't feel unrealistic at all to see a score in the neighborhood of 17-13 for this one heading into the intermission.

Pittsburgh Reaches 15 Points BEFORE Cleveland

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Another prop bet we found over at OddsChecker.com is a race to 15 points in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns contest. Barring something wacky, we're inclined to believe the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers can put 15 points on the woeful Cleveland defense before the Browns have a chance to respond.

The Browns are rated just 28th in overall defense by Pro Football Focus. More relevant to this prop, though, is that Cleveland barely averages more than 15 points per game—17.5 to be exact—so there's a chance they don't even reach the 15-point mark before the final whistle.

The odds aren't incredibly enticing here—9-2 for Pittsburgh, in fact—but this feels like it could be one of the surest props of the week.