Way-Too-Early Ranking of the Top 2016-17 Norris Trophy Candidates

The NHL hasn’t had a back-to-back winner of the Norris Trophy since Nicklas Lidstrom, who won three in a row from 2006 to 2008. That speaks volumes of the amount of ultra-talented defensemen that today’s game features.

Despite the season being only a month old, several rearguards have already begun to build their cases for inclusion in the Norris conversation.

On the list, you’ll see familiar faces such as Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Duncan Keith. But there are also a few gatecrashers, including a rookie.

The Professional Hockey Writers Association always seems to lean toward handing the hardware to defensemen with high point totals, but this list also took into account a few possession and production metrics such as Corsi percentage.

 Feel free to express your views in the comments section.

8. Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets

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By the numbers: 10 games, two goals, eight assists, 10 points, 55.2 Corsi perecentage and 21:42 average ice time.

What they mean: The lone rookie on this list, Zach Werenski has been nothing short of spectacular through his first 10 games for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Werenski is proving to be a gifted offensive defenseman with the ability to handle a sizable workload already. The 2015 first-round pick is showing no signs of rookie jitters and is averaging 2.6 shots per game thus far.

In addition to producing points and shots, when Werenski is on the ice, the Blue Jackets are attempting more shots than their opponents.

Projecting 2016-17: It is hard to imagine that the 19-year-old will keep up his point-per-game pace, but his peripheral numbers in the early going look good.

Even if his numbers do regress, it isn’t hard to envision Werenski finding himself around the 50-point mark come the end of his first season, which would definitely turn some heads. Earning the trust of coach John Tortorella as a rookie defenseman is already an impressive accomplishment. It will be interesting if Werenski can keep up this level of play for a full campaign.

7. Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues

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By the numbers: 13 games, zero goals, four assists, four points, 50.76 Corsi percentage and 21:34 average ice time.

What they mean: The true feelgood story of this list, Colton Parayko was passed over in the 2012 NHL draft before the St. Louis Blues nabbed the University of Alaska product with their third-round pick in 2013. Since then, the 23-year-old has developed into one of the game’s most promising rearguards.

Even though Parayko’s point production this season isn’t on par with the rest of the players on this list, they figure to get better. Last season, the 6'6" rearguard potted nine goals and recorded 23 assists in 79 games.

Projecting 2016-17: Parayko is great, and he’s only going to get better. Even though he’s yet to score a goal this season, he’s averaging more than two shots per game, so goals should follow soon enough. Parayko is already logging over 21 minutes of ice time per game, and as the season goes on, that number will likely increase.

Since the PHWA likes to reward defensemen with high point totals with Norris votes, it may be tough for Parayko to crash the party, but his play thus far in his brief career can’t be ignored.

6. Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues

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By the numbers: 13 games, three goals, seven assists, 10 points, 64.8 Corsi percentage and 20:31 average ice time.

What they mean: Man, the Blues should be happy they never shipped Kevin Shattenkirk out of town in the summer.

With his contract expiring at the end of this season, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see Shattenkirk putting up terrific offensive numbers. But it definitely helps that he plays on one of the best defensive units in the league. Since St. Louis is so talented on the back end, Shattenkirk is able to play with a little more freedom than he would on another squad.

The point totals are impressive, but Shattenkirk’s ability to drive possession definitely stands out in the early going. His 64.8 Corsi percentage is the best among the defensemen on this list.

Projecting 2016-17: Over the past three campaigns, Shattenkirk has recorded 45, 44, and 44 points, respectively. This year, he’s on pace for 63 despite seeing less time on the ice per game than he did last season.

Given the way he’s going, Shattenkirk’s ice time should go up as the year wears on and the games become more important. If he can get near 60 points and keeps his possession numbers up, he’s going to be hard to leave off the ballot.

5. Duncan Keith, Chicago Blackhawks

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By the numbers: 13 games, zero goals, 11 assists, 53.8 Corsi percentage and 25:29 average ice time.

What they mean: At 33 years old, one would have been forgiven for expecting a bit of a dip in play from Duncan Keith in 2016-17. Not so fast. Despite playing over 25 minutes per game, Keith is still driving possession when he is on the ice. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, though. In 11 seasons, Keith has never finished with a Corsi percentage below 50.

This term, Keith is seeing a lot of time with the offensively gifted Brian Campbell. The partnership is paying off, as Keith is averaging 0.85 points per game, which is 0.3 points higher than his career average. While that number may regress a little bit, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see Keith finish around the 60-point mark this year.

Projecting 2016-17: Along with Karlsson, Keith is the only player on this list to have already won a Norris Trophy. Also like the Ottawa Senators captain, Keith has done it twice (2010 and 2014).

Even though Keith hasn’t scored yet, he is still doing a great job creating offense. Through the first 13 games, the 2003 second-round pick is creating 0.23 goals per game. Given the Chicago Blackhawks lack depth this season, Keith will need to continue producing for his team to contend.

If Keith can pull off shouldering a heavier load than he already does, there’s no reason for him not to be considered for the Norris.

4. Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings

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By the numbers: 13 games played, two goals, four assists, 60.6 Corsi percentage and 27:11 average ice time.

What they mean: Despite a modest start to the season offensively, Drew Doughty is already seeing more ice time per game than every player in the NHL except for Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien (28:34). After losing starting goaltender Jonathan Quick on opening night, Doughty has had to be on his game from the start in 2016-17.

Despite playing over 27 minutes per game, the 26-year-old is still driving possession at a superb rate. The Los Angeles Kings depend on owning the puck, and Doughty is a key cog in coach Darryl Sutter’s machine.

Projecting 2016-17: The reigning Norris Trophy winner doesn’t put up the same type of numbers as some of the members on this list, but he handles perhaps the heaviest load in terms of ice time.

With that type of ice time and his 2.77 shots-per-game average, expect Doughty’s point-per-game rate to go up a tad as the season continues. And if the Kings can find a way to contend at the top of the Western Conference despite their injuries and aging core, Doughty will be a huge reason. Thus, he would be on plenty of ballots for some hardware.

3. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

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By the numbers: 13 games, three goals, seven assists, 10 points, 52.4 Corsi percentage and 24:18 average ice time.

What they mean: Victor Hedman has really come into his own over the past three seasons and seems to be getting better with each passing game.

Still, the Tampa Bay Lightning have always been a little reluctant to give Hedman the 25-plus minutes per game that other blueliners on this list are given. He is their most important defenseman, so it could be their way of protecting him and keeping him fresh for another deep playoff run. He’s already seeing more ice time per game this season, and should that keep up, he could be looking at a 65-point season.

Projecting 2016-17: With the Lightning expected to contend for the Eastern Conference crown again this term, expect Hedman’s name to be mentioned more as the season goes on. He’s been a stalwart on coach Jon Cooper’s blue line for years and, at 25, is in the middle of his prime years.

It is perhaps a bit unfair Hedman hasn’t yet been a Norris finalist, but that could change in June.

2. Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

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By the numbers: 13 games, five goals, seven assists, 12 points, 59.2 Corsi percentage and 24:00 average ice time.

What they mean: After finishing second behind Karlsson with 75 points last year, Brent Burns is the early pacesetter in the scoring race among defensemen this season. And while his point totals are impressive, a deeper look at his numbers this season reveal just how good the 31-year-old has been.

In addition to leading defensemen in scoring, Burns is leading the entire NHL in shots, and it isn’t even close. Through 13 games, the 6'5" rearguard has notched 71 shots, 13 more than Jakub Voracek, who ranks second in the league with 58, and 26 more than the next defenseman on the list, Shayne Gostisbehere.

Projecting 2016-17: Burns has thrived since he was traded to the San Jose Sharks from the Minnesota Wild in 2011. He’s got the full trust of his coaching staff and his teammates to play his style, and it’s paying off. Burns is averaging 0.34 goals created per game this season. On the surface, that number may seem due to regress, but Burns created 0.33 goals per game in 82 games term.

One of the hardest players to defend against in the league, Burns has a legitimate chance to be a point-per-game player this season, and that will likely land him plenty of first-place votes in June.

1. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

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By the numbers: 12 games, three goals, seven assists, 10 points, 51.6 Corsi percentage and 26:36 average ice time.

What they mean: According to Sports Insights, Karlsson came into the season as the favorite to take home his third career Norris Trophy, and his play thus far has backed that up. On most nights, the 26-year-old is the best player on the ice, and he is the Senators' most important player by a landslide.

Although Karlsson’s possession numbers aren’t all that great, it’s because he sees so much ice time, and most of it comes against the opposition’s best players.

Projecting 2016-17: There’s no reason to believe Karlsson’s production won’t, at the very least, stay consistent for the rest of the season. Last year, the smooth-skating Swede led all defensemen with 82 points and in average ice time, with 28:58. Karlsson has recorded at least 66 points in each of the last three seasons and, perhaps even more impressively, hasn’t missed a game since 2013.

Should Karlsson continue his remarkable form, you’d be hard-pressed to bet against him winning his third Norris Trophy.

Corsi percentage per Puckalytics.com and current through Nov. 9.