NFL Picks Week 9: Over-Under Vegas Lines, Expert Predictions and Odds

Week 9 means the NFL season is officially on its down slope, setting us up for a furious ride toward the postseason. Most teams' identities by now are well-established, and there are plenty of stats and results to refer to when making picks, but picking games can still be a difficult, stressful process. 

Recent developments for some teams can make even the safer-seeming picks dicey. Injuries are doing the Kansas City Chiefs no favors on offense. The Minnesota Vikings have lost two straight after a 5-0 start, and their out-of-sorts offense might not be enough to supplement a terrifying defense. 

Speaking of recent developments that make picking games a nervous prospect, the NFL has even seen rare ties in each of the past two weeks, so who knows what's in store for Week 9?

Luckily, some numbers and prognosticators are here to help out. Here's a look at the Week 9 spreads, over-under lines and expert predictions from around the web. 

Matchup (w/ spread)	Over-Under	Andrew Lynch, Fox Sports	Joel Thorman, SB Nation	K.C. Joyner, ESPN.com	Dave Richard, CBS Sports	FiveThirtyEight Probabilities
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	51	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons 58%
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)	44	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs 90%
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)	41	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Lions	Vikings 71%
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)	43.5	Steelers	Ravens	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers 57%
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)	43	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Giants	Eagles-Giants 50%
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)	44	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Jets	Dolphins 53%
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns	48.5	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys 78%
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams	44.5	Panthers	Panthers	Rams	Rams	Panthers 55%
New Orleans Saints (-3) at San Francisco 49ers	52	Saints	Saints	49ers	Saints	Saints 56%
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-4)	47	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers 72%
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7)	54	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers 74%
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (even)	43.5	Broncos	Broncos	Raiders	Raiders	Broncos 61%
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)	43.5	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks 69%

Chiefs (-7.5) Backups Will Get the Job Done Against Jaguars

The Kansas City Chiefs will likely have understudies at quarterback and running back against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, but they should still win this game by more than a touchdown.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

According to the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Nick Foles will start in place of Alex Smith at quarterback against the Jags. Smith is in a murky concussion protocol situation following a pair of jarring hits in a Week 8 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

Foles looked excellent in relief of Smith against Indy, completing over 70 percent of his passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Foles started his career in Philadelphia with Andy Reid as his head coach and appears comfortable playing in Reid's system in Kansas City. Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson notes Foles' big arm could potentially open up the Chiefs offense:

"

If nothing else, Foles in the short-term will force defenses to play the Chiefs’ offense more honest. In a very limited sample size, he has gone deep on 21.7 percent of his attempts, and his passer rating on those plays is 143.8. Foles’ career shows a far more aggressive QB when it comes to attacking deep, and anybody preparing to face him as the starting quarterback will be aware of the deep ball as something that needs to be defended.

"

Stretching the field would do wonders for Charcandrick West, who will get the starting nod if Spencer Ware is unable to suit up. Ware is in the concussion protocol and didn't practice Wednesday, per ESPN.com's Adam Teicher. 

Though West hasn't played much this season, he performed well last year when forced into a starting role, amassing 412 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns in a four-game stretch. He should find plenty of room to run against a Jaguars defense that is ranked 27th against the rush.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Jaguars' offense has been out of sorts all season. They've failed to score at least 20 points in four of seven contests this year, including two of the last three. Blake Bortles is already at nine picks on the year and will have to find a way to avoid the thievery of Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (five interceptions).

Jacksonville's rushing game is plodding at best, putting pressure on Bortles to re-establish erstwhile connections with Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas, who are having disappointing seasons. 

The Jags flash talent on defense, but their most promising player, rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey, might not be as impactful as he could be in this one for the simple reason that the Chiefs often find ways to win without getting big days out of their wide receivers. Look for Foles and West to power the Chiefs to a solid double-digit win over the Jaguars.

    

Lions Ready to Cover Against Stumbling Vikings (-6.5)

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Vikings looked ready to coast to a top seed in the NFC playoffs just two weeks ago, but back-to-back losses in which they could muster only 10 points in each game have put a serious damper on this campaign.

Sam Bradford not long ago looked the part of an MVP candidate for playing so well as essentially an emergency replacement for Teddy Bridgewater, but the veteran has regressed to the mean with his poorest outings of the season in the two losses (454 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 5.82 YPA). 

Bradford's backsliding isn't necessarily his fault. An injury to Jerick McKinnon in Week 7 took some steam out of an already poor running game that is pining for the injured Adrian Peterson. There has also been little in the way of a comfortable pocket for Bradford to throw from lately, as these numbers from Pro Football Focus and Bleacher Report's Ian Kenyon illustrate:

Per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, McKinnon hopes to return in Week 9 against the Detroit Lions, which might provide this stagnating offense a boost.

Detroit's pass rush has been middling all season, and the bright spot that was defensive end Armonty Bryant won't be on the field Sunday, as he serves the first game of a three-game suspension. Bradford could get more time to link up with the excellent Stefon Diggs in this one. 

Bob Levey/Getty Images

However, the surprise resignation of offensive coordinator Norv Turner, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, might make it difficult for the Vikings offense to sort itself out in time to put up the numbers necessary to score a comfortable win over the Lions. 

Detroit's pass-happy offense is going to have a nasty time of its own trying to put up points against this elite Vikings defense, which is tied for first in the NFL in takeaways (16) and is holding opposing quarterbacks to a collective 68.1 rating, per ESPN.com. Matthew Stafford has done well this year operating in a scheme predicated on short, snappy throws, but it's going to be tough to dink and dunk for long stretches against these Vikings. 

Still, Stafford is no stranger to volume passing, and in what figures to be a low-scoring affair—this game has the lowest over-under of the week at 41 points—he should keep this game close enough for the Lions to cover the spread.

Should Roethlisberger Return, Steelers an Easy Upset Pick Over Ravens (-2.5)

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Although he is just two weeks out from a meniscus surgery, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger could suit up for a tough AFC North rivalry game on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala noted he was practicing Wednesday, and at least one teammate gave an optimistic assessment: 

A source told Bleacher Report's Jason Cole that he expects Roethlisberger to play: 

Even Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs can't see the tough-as-nails quarterback missing this game.

"I seen this movie before," Suggs said Wednesday, per NFL.com's Chris Wesseling. "We all know who's playing. Tell Ben he's not fooling anyone."

Roethlisberger has put up gaudy stats this year, throwing for 1,685 yards, 16 touchdowns and six picks. With the potent combo of Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield, the Steelers should have plenty of firepower to beat the struggling Ravens on the road. 

Of course, one has to be concerned that Roethlisberger won't be his usual self rushing back so soon from a knee injury. PreSnapReads.com's Cian Fahey noted he didn't fare well last time he tried this: 

"

Ben Roethlisberger's early return after knee injury last year resulted in:
28-45 for 262 yards (5.8 per attempt) 1 TD, 3 INTs. https://t.co/hBl8zzkyAI

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) November 2, 2016"

Even if Roethlisberger can't play and Landry Jones leads the charge from under center, the Steelers could still beat the Ravens. They have enough weapons on offense to makes Jones' life relatively easy, and the Ravens have lost four straight after starting 3-0. Mere competence from Jones should be enough to get the job done.

Both teams are coming off a bye week, so the Ravens can bank only on the home-field advantage to help them see out a win in this one. Don't count on it, especially if Big Ben is on the field.

Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday at 7 a.m. ET. All expert picks are straight up, not against the spread.