Saul Alvarez vs. Liam Smith: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night in Arlington, Texas, Saul Alvarez returns to the junior middleweight division to face WBO 154-pound belt holder Liam Smith. Alvarez will have a large section of the crowd behind him, but expect a good representation from Smith's native Liverpool, England, as well.
This might not have been the fight most fans wanted to see Canelo fight this fall. But Smith is undefeated, puts on exciting bouts and can hardly be faulted for jumping on this opportunity.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Saul Alvarez | Liam Smith |
| Record: | 47-1-1, 33 KOs | 23-0-1, 13 KOs |
| Height: | 5'9" | 5'9.5" |
| Reach: | 70.5" | Unlisted |
| Weight: | 154 lbs | 154 lbs |
| Age: | 26 | 28 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Guadalajara, Jalisco | Liverpool, Merseyside |
| Rounds: | 332 | 126 |
Saul Alvarez is two years younger than Liam Smith, but Canelo turned professional at age 15 and has been in 24 more fights than the WBO champion.
The two match up with similar height and length, but Alvarez has sure looked bigger in the ring.
Main Storylines
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Last November, Saul Alvarez lifted the WBC and lineal middleweight titles from Miguel Cotto via unanimous decision. Boxing fans everywhere expected that his next move would be to face Gennady Golovkin, the undefeated WBA and IBF middleweight champ.
Instead, last May, Canelo opted to fight welterweight (and former lightweight) Amir Khan at a catchweight of 155 pounds. Now, he is returning to junior middleweight to face WBO champion Liam Smith.
Smith is the best of four boxing brothers from Liverpool. He is a talented pressure fighter with an exciting style.
But he has done little to deserve a pay-per-view fight against one of the sport's biggest stars. He captured his vacant belt by knocking out American John Thompson, a skilled, lanky fighter with quick hands but limited power and a suspect chin.
And Thompson is the best win on Smith's resume.
In truth, Smith is a tough sell as an opponent for Canelo at this point. He is completely untested against top-level competition.
For a fighter who legitimately earned a reputation as a warrior by facing tough competition like Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara, Alvarez seems to be taking it as easy as possible in 2016.
It is not that Smith poses the same lack of a threat as Khan did. But he is a far cry from Gennady Golovkin. Even at 154 pounds, he's well behind the Charlo twins or Demetrius Andrade.
Strengths
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Saul Alvarez is an aggressive counterpuncher with power. He is an excellent body puncher and has good defensive skills in close range. While only 26, at this point he has been in the ring with some of the best in the world.
Liam Smith is a talented offensive fighter. He strings together good combinations with a lot of variation in his punch selection. He doubles up well with both fists.
He holds a good, tight guard and catches a lot of punches while also changing levels well.
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Weaknesses
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Saul Alvarez has difficulty cutting off the ring against opponents who move well. However, expect Liam Smith to stay in range most of the time.
Liam Smith is completely untested against opponents with Canelo's talent level. He struggled for most of the fight against John Thompson on the night he won his belt.
However, Thompson's length presented problems for Smith that he won't have to worry about with Alvarez.
Saul Alvarez Will Win If...
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Saul Alvarez should feel comfortable in this fight. Liam Smith is a tough, game fighter, and he will almost surely be in position to trade.
Canelo should fire quick, two-punch combinations, then slip back and be ready to counter hard when Smith attempts to return fire.
Against an inexperienced opponent, Alvarez should waste no time going on the attack. He should pound Smith to the torso and double up with uppercuts or hooks upstairs.
Canelo wants to drag Smith directly into the deep waters and make the Englishman prove that he can swim.
Liam Smith Will Win If...
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Liam Smith is facing a huge jump in his level of competition this Saturday night. And Alvarez is a much different fighter than the best opponent he has faced to date, John Thompson.
Against Thompson, Smith could be content to give away early rounds while getting down Thompson's timing and watching for openings. He'll have no such opportunity against Canelo, who will put serious pressure on him right away.
It is going to be critical for Smith to get off first with his own offense, controlling the tempo of the fight. If he allows Canelo to be the better ring general, the red-headed star will set him up for some brutal counterpunches.
Alvarez will be in range to get hit during this fight. If Smith can consistently hurt him before getting hurt in return, he'll be competitive in this fight.
Prediction
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Let's preface this prediction with a caveat: It is tough at this point to really evaluate Liam Smith as a fighter. He clearly has legitimate skill. But he has not been tested anything like he will Saturday night.
So it is impossible for me to feel confident about my prediction here.
But it seems like Smith is a fighter made to order for Canelo Alvarez. Smith will provide an opponent who mostly stays in close and trades.
And the Englishman's defense just does not measure up to Canelo's. He does not slip punches as well or counter with the same explosive pop.
Alvarez should stop Smith within eight rounds.
If Alvarez stays at junior middleweight in 2017, there are only three opponents worth seeing him fight: Demetrius Andrade or one of the Charlo twins. If Alvarez moves up to full middleweight, he needs to fight Gennady Golovkin.
If Alvarez is sincere in wanting to be the sport's biggest star, he needs to start fighting the best available opponents.
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