Fantasy Football Week 1: Opening Rankings, Projections, Early Waiver-Wire Tips

Labor Day weekend is the final checkpoint before we get to play fantasy football.

On Thursday, the Carolina Panthers will battle the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch to kick off the NFL season. That means there are just days separating you, your team and Week 1.

Whether you've already selected your squad or you're doing a last-minute draft, check out below for projections, rankings and some waiver-wire tips—you know, before things get wild.

Rankings, Projections

*Note: Standard scoring

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Projected stats	Projected points
1	Aaron Rodgers	Packers	@ Jaguars	300 yards, four TDs, three carries, 20 yards, one INT	28
2	Russell Wilson	Seahawks	Dolphins	250 yards, three TDs, five carries, 25 yards	24.5
3	Drew Brees	Saints	Raiders	310 yards, three TDs	24.4
4	Matthew Stafford	Lions	@ Colts	280 yards, three TDs	23.2
5	Eli Manning	Giants	@ Cowboys	220 yards, four TDs, one INT	22.8
6	Tyrod Taylor	Bills	@ Ravens	230 yards, two TDs, six carries, 70 yards, one INT	22.2
7	Kirk Cousins	Redskins	Steelers	280 yards, three TDs, one INT	21.2
8	Cam Newton	Panthers	@ Broncos	200 yards, one TD, four carries, 30 yards, rush TD	21
9	Andrew Luck	Colts	Lions	300 yards, three TDs, two INT	20
10	Carson Palmer	Cardinals	Patriots	300 yards, three TDs, three INT	18

Notes:

• Lions-Colts figures to be an absolute shootout. Buy stock in this game, if possible.
• Packers-Jaguars could be, too, though Aaron Rodgers and Co. could light it up early and then cruise.
• Cam Newton, last year's No. 1 player, is projected eighth. That's low, but keep in mind he's going against a defense that (a) was historically dominant and (b) locked him down in the Super Bowl. Newton's quarterback rating that game was 16.9, his lowest all season.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Projected stats	Projected points
1	David Johnson	Cardinals	Patriots	16 carries, 80 rushing yards, TD, five catches, 40 yards, TD	24
2	Ezekiel Elliott	Cowboys	Giants	18 carries, 90 yards, two TDs	21
3	Devonta Freeman	Falcons	Buccaneers	15 carries, 75 yards, TD, six catches, 55 yards	19
4	Adrian Peterson	Vikings	@ Titans	23 carries, 110 yards, TD	17
5	Todd Gurley	Rams	@ 49ers	19 carries, 95 yards, TD, two catches, 10 yards	16.5
6	Eddie Lacy	Packers	@ Jaguars	16 carries, 75 yards, TD, three catches, 20 yards	15.5
7	Latavius Murray	Raiders	@ Saints	18 carries, 85 yards, TD	14.5
8	Spencer Ware	Chiefs	Chargers	16 carries, 80 yards, TD	14
9	Lamar Miller	Texans	Bears	20 carries, 90 yards, five catches, 45 yards	13.5
10	LeSean McCoy	Bills	@ Ravens	15 carries, 100 yards, five catches, 30 yards	13

Notes:

• The Saints gave up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2015. Ride Latavius Murray.
• San Diego was just over one point better than New Orleans in that department. If Jamaal Charles' status continues to come into question, don't be afraid to fire up Spencer Ware.
• Todd Gurley should be the lone star in a black hole of a game between the Rams and 49ers.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Projected stats	Projected points
1	Odell Beckham Jr.	Giants	@ Cowboys	Six catches, 100 yards, two TDs	22
2	Antonio Brown	Steelers	@ Redskins	10 catches, 120 yards, TD	18
3	Sammy Watkins	Bills	@ Ravens	Five catches, 115 yards, 1 TD	17.5
4	Donte Moncrief	Colts	Lions	Five catches, 55 yards, two TDs	17.5
5	A.J. Green	Bengals	@ Jets	Six catches, 95 yards, TD	15.5
6	Brandon Marshall	Jets	Bengals	Seven catches, 85 yards, TD	14.5
7	Jordy Nelson	Packers	@ Jaguars	Five catches, 75 yards, TD	13.5
8	Julio Jones	Falcons	Buccaneers	Eight catches, 130 yards	13
9	Allen Robinson	Jaguars	Packers	Six catches, 125 yards	12.5
10	Amari Cooper	Raiders	@ Saints	Eight catches, 100 yards, two rushes, 20 yards	12

Notes:

• Wide receivers aren't known for their humility. But last week, Sammy Watkins (who had foot surgery in the offseason) said he would "score a couple touchdowns" against the Baltimore Ravens had the game been on Aug. 29, per Matthew Fairburn of NYup.com.
• Here are Odell Beckham Jr.'s last two games (combined) against the Dallas Cowboys: nine catches, 79 yards, no touchdowns. Smart money is on that changing.
• Let's get the Donte Moncrief breakout campaign underway.

Tight Ends 

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Projected stats	Projected points
1	Jordan Reed	Redskins	Steelers	Nine catches, 85 yards, 2 TD	20.5
2	Rob Gronkowski	Patriots	@ Cardinals	Five catches, 60 yards, 2 TD	18
3	Antonio Gates	Chargers	@ Chiefs	Four catches, 60 yards, TD	12
4	Jason Witten	Cowboys	Giants	Six catches, 60 yards, TD	12
5	Jared Cook	Packers	@ Jaguars	Five catches, 40 yards, TD	10
6	Greg Olsen	Panthers	@ Broncos	Five catches, 95 yards	9.5
7	Delanie Walker	Titans	Vikings	Seven catches, 90 yards	9
8	Gary Barnidge	Browns	@ Eagles	Six catches, 80 yards	8
9	Zach Ertz	Eagles	Browns	Eight catches, 75 yards	7.5
10	Travis Kelce	Chiefs	Chargers	Five catches, 65 yards	6.5

Notes:

• When Tom Brady gets back, you best believe Rob Gronkowski will tower above his positional peers. But for now, Jordan Reed's rapport with Kirk Cousins tops that of Gronk and Jimmy Garoppolo.
• Jason Witten loves playing against the New York Giants:

"

Jason Witten has 7 touchdowns in his past six games against the Giants and 9 touchdowns in his past 42 games versus everyone else.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) August 24, 2016"

D/ST

Rank	Team	Opponent
1	Seahawks	Dolphins
2	Eagles	Browns
3	Packers	@ Jaguars
4	Vikings	@ Titans
5	Cardinals	Patriots
6	Broncos	Panthers
7	Panthers	@ Broncos
8	Buccaneers	@ Falcons
9	Steelers	@ Redskins
10	Rams	@ 49ers

Notes:

• Don't overthink this.

Kickers

It's nearly impossible to project kicker points, even those who play in domes. Roll with who you drafted.

Early Waiver-Wire Tips

Don't Overreact

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

There is going to be a seldom-known player who goes off in Week 1.

As always.

Sometimes, those early-season studs turn out to be regular fantasy contributors (think Dion Lewis). Other times, though, those breakouts are flashes in the pan—shooting stars that are rarely, if ever, seen again.

In Week 1 last season, Tennessee Titans receiver Kendall Wright went for four catches, 101 yards and a touchdown. In the following nine games he played, Wright eclipsed 34 yards twice and scored twice.

The difference in these cases—aside from Lewis and Wright playing different positions—is usage.

Lewis' Week 1 performance included 15 rushes and four catches for a total of 120 yards. While unexpected, it was clear this guy would be a featured piece of New England's offensive attack. The Patriots were feeding him the rock.

Wright, on the other hand, broke free for a 52-yard score two minutes into the game. The rest of the contest? Three targets. It was a spectacular play but not one that screamed "consistent involvement."

This coming Week 1 will undoubtedly feature waiver-wire darlings. Some of them will be league-winners—or at least major helpers. Others will barely be heard from again.

This isn't advice to stay away from players who dazzle. When placing that initial waiver claim, though, look for involvement first and standalone highlights second.

Trust Your Draft

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Let's look at a few 2015 Week 1 lines from eventual fantasy monsters last season:

• Allen Robinson: six targets, one catch, 27 yards (finished as WR4)
• Doug Baldwin: nine targets, seven catches, 35 yards (finished as WR7)
• Devonta Freeman: 10 rushes, 18 yards (finished as RB1)
• Gary Barnidge: five targets, three catches, 38 yards (finished as TE2)

Now, aside from Barnidge (who nobody drafted), can you imagine letting go of those other guys following one subpar outing?

(Personal story: I drafted Beckham his rookie year. Then, during his four-game absence to start the season, I dropped him—before he ever played a game. He was picked up by a rabid Giants fan within minutes. Still haunts me.)

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Yes, a single-digit outing to start the year is frustrating. But avoid the urge to quick-trigger your player to free agency. In a game full of snap roster decisions, exuding patience early in the season could pay dividends come playoff time.

Similarly, if someone drops a Robinson or Baldwin—real-life No. 1 receivers—jump at the opportunity.

Thanks to FantasyPros for providing draft information and last season's final leaders.