Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections: Season-Opening Stat Predictions for Top 100

Another season of fantasy football is on the horizon, as the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos kick off the 2016 NFL campaign Thursday night with a Super Bowl rematch. The opener immediately forces fantasy owners into some tough decisions as two strong defenses face off.

Ultimately, the usual course of action for Week 1 is starting the players you drafted first. They are the ones you'll need to shine in order to capture a championship four months down the line. But tough matchups could alter that mindset, especially for those with a high-upside reserve on the bench.

So let's take a look at each position with stat projections for the top 100 options available to help with those borderline decisions. All predictions are based on standard scoring.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Prediction
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at JAX	29
2	Russell Wilson	SEA	vs. MIA	28
3	Drew Brees	NO	vs. OAK	27
4	Derek Carr	OAK	at NO	25
5	Andrew Luck	IND	vs. DET	24
T-6	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	at WSH	23
T-6	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	at BAL	23
8	Cam Newton	CAR	at DEN	21
9	Matthew Stafford	DET	at IND	20
10	Kirk Cousins	WSH	vs. PIT	18
11	Matt Ryan	ATL	vs. TB	17
T-12	Jimmy Garoppolo	NE	at ARZ	16
T-12	Eli Manning	NYG	at DAL	16
14	Blake Bortles	JAX	vs. GB	15
15	Dak Prescott	DAL	vs. NYG	14

Most of the usual suspects are accounted for at quarterback, though it's a weird feeling to start a season without Peyton Manning near the top of the list. Tom Brady is also absent, but replacement Jimmy Garoppolo is a fringe No. 1 QB for those without a top-tier option.

Tyrod Taylor flew under the radar for most of last season, but the Buffalo Bills signal-caller carries a lot of potential this year if he can stay healthy. The dual-threat playmaker missed two games in 2015, but his per-dropback production was terrific, per PFF Fantasy Football:

Another quarterback on the rise is Derek Carr. The Oakland Raiders have seemingly found the answer to their longtime questions under center, and now they have surrounded him with enough talent to make him a full-time fantasy starter.

Dak Prescott is one of the most intriguing fantasy players while Tony Romo is sidelined. He looked outstanding at times during the preseason, but whether that will translate to games that matter is still a question mark, which explains the modest projection.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Prediction
1	Todd Gurley	LA	at SF	24
2	Adrian Peterson	MIN	at TEN	22
3	David Johnson	ARZ	vs. NE	21
4	Lamar Miller	HOU	vs. CHI	20
5	Devonta Freeman	ATL	vs. TB	19
T-6	LeSean McCoy	BUF	at BAL	18
T-6	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	vs. NYG	18
8	Latavius Murray	OAK	at NO	16
9	DeAngelo Williams	PIT	at WSH	15
T-10	Doug Martin	TB	at ATL	14
T-10	Mark Ingram	NO	vs. OAK	14
T-10	Eddie Lacy	GB	at JAX	14
13	Carlos Hyde*	SF	vs. LA	13
14	DeMarco Murray	TEN	vs. MIN	12
T-15	Ryan Mathews	PHI	vs. CLE	11
T-15	Thomas Rawls	SEA	vs. MIA	11
T-15	Frank Gore	IND	vs. DET	11
T-18	Melvin Gordon	SD	at KC	10
T-18	Matt Forte	NYJ	vs. CIN	10
T-20	LeGarrette Blount	NE	at ARZ	9
T-20	Jamaal Charles*	KC	vs. SD	9
T-22	C.J. Anderson	DEN	vs. CAR	8
T-22	Duke Johnson Jr.	CLE	at PHI	8
T-22	Rashad Jennings	NYG	at DAL	8
T-25	Jeremy Langford	CHI	at HOU	7
T-25	Justin Forsett	BAL	vs. BUF	7
T-27	Giovani Bernard	CIN	at NYJ	6
T-27	Arian Foster	MIA	at SEA	6
T-29	T.J. Yeldon	JAX	vs. GB	5
T-29	Matt Jones*	WSH	vs. PIT	5

Losing Teddy Bridgewater shouldn't have a significant impact on Adrian Peterson's fantasy value. Any additional defensive focus, which was already sky-high anyway, will be offset by the amount of touches he receives. He remains a top-notch option at running back.

DeAngelo Williams' fantasy owners will have some tricky choices to make in the early going. If he starts the season with a double-digit performance, it might be time to start searching for a trade before his value fades once Le'Veon Bell returns from suspension.

Eddie Lacy was a massive bust one year ago. The Green Bay Packers are giving him another chance to lead the rushing attack. His draft value was far more reasonable than last summer, so he could provide plenty of bang for the buck in Week 1 and beyond.

The New York Jets took a chance on Matt Forte after his long career with the Chicago Bears came to a close. He lacked his usual burst for Chicago over the past couple of years, but he should get enough touches in New York to carry No. 2 RB value consistently.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Prediction
1	Antonio Brown	PIT	at WSH	22
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	at DAL	21
3	Julio Jones	ATL	vs. TB	20
T-4	Dez Bryant	DAL	vs. NYG	19
T-4	Brandon Marshall	NYJ	vs. CIN	19
6	A.J. Green	CIN	at NYJ	17
7	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	at HOU	16
T-8	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	vs. CHI	15
T-8	T.Y. Hilton	IND	vs. DET	15
T-8	Sammy Watkins	BUF	at BAL	15
11	Keenan Allen	SD	at KC	14
T-12	Jordy Nelson	GB	at JAX	13
T-12	Brandin Cooks	NO	vs. OAK	13
T-14	Amari Cooper	OAK	at NO	12
T-14	Larry Fitzgerald*	ARZ	vs. NE	12
T-14	Julian Edelman	NE	at ARZ	12
T-17	Mike Evans	TB	at ATL	11
T-17	Jarvis Landry	MIA	at SEA	11
T-19	Golden Tate	DET	at IND	10
T-19	Eric Decker	NYJ	vs. CIN	10
T-19	Randall Cobb	GB	at JAX	10
T-22	Jeremy Maclin	KC	vs. SD	9
T-22	Allen Robinson	JAX	vs. GB	9
T-24	Donte Moncrief	IND	vs. DET	8
T-24	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	vs. CAR	8
T-24	Jordan Matthews	PHI	vs. CLE	8
T-27	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	at DEN	7
T-27	Michael Crabtree	OAK	at NO	7
T-29	Doug Baldwin	SEA	vs. MIA	6
T-29	Corey Coleman	CLE	at PHI	6

All signs point to quite a battle between the triumvirate of Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones as the top fantasy receiver this season. All three are in situations where they should log a massive amount of targets, which leads to fantasy gold.

Alshon Jeffery was one of the most frustrating fantasy players last season due to nagging injury issues. Unfortunately, he's already dealt with a hamstring issue this summer, too. He might be another player to consider trading if he gets off to a hot start with those problems in mind. But start him for now.

Jarvis Landry could end up finishing among the top 10 receivers by season's end. His status for Week 1 is complicated by the fact he goes up against the Seattle Seahawks secondary. He should still be in the lineup except in the shallowest of leagues, though.

Demaryius Thomas had over 1,300 yards last season despite the Broncos' quarterback problems. An uncertain rapport with Trevor Siemian will make him a shaky play in the early going, especially against the Panthers, but he could still possess quite a bit of season-long value.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Prediction
1	Rob Gronkowski	NE	at ARZ	18
2	Greg Olsen	CAR	at DEN	15
3	Jordan Reed	WSH	vs. PIT	14
4	Travis Kelce	KC	vs. SD	13
5	Delanie Walker	TEN	vs. MIN	12
T-6	Coby Fleener	NO	vs. OAK	10
T-6	Jason Witten	DAL	vs. NYG	10
8	Jimmy Graham	SEA	vs. MIA	9
T-9	Antonio Gates	SD	at KC	8
T-9	Zach Ertz	PHI	vs. CLE	8

Rob Gronkowski is in a category of his own at tight end. His combination of physical tools and role within the New England Patriots offense gives him first-round value. And he downplayed any concerns about a lack of in-game work with Garoppolo, per Henry McKenna of Boston.com:

"

The chemistry is definitely there, and we're all on the same page of where we need to be and how we need to run things, so it's all going smooth. I would say after a few years now being together, going into our third year, I would definitely say we have a feel for each other. I definitely know when I come out of a break, where the ball is going to be with him. He knows where I'm going to be, so we're definitely on the same page. We've felt each other out now to the point that we know what to expect.

"

Coby Fleener enters a perfect situation to thrive with the New Orleans Saints. However, he's had an up-and-down training camp, per Josh Katzenstein of NOLA.com, which should temper expectations at the outset. There could be some clunkers before he settles into the offense.

Meanwhile, it's amazing how far Jimmy Graham's stock has fallen in the span of 12 months. He's gone from a second-tier tight end behind Gronkowski to a fringe starter. Don't be surprised if he puts together a strong bounce-back campaign, starting with a solid Week 1.

Special Teams/Team Defense

Rank	Team	Opponent	Prediction
1	Seattle Seahawks	vs. MIA	14
2	Carolina Panthers	at DEN	13
T-3	Houston Texans	vs. CHI	12
T-3	Kansas City Chiefs	vs. SD	12
5	Cincinnati Bengals	at NYJ	11
6	Denver Broncos	vs. CAR	10
7	Los Angeles Rams	at SF	9
T-8	New England Patriots	at ARZ	8
T-8	Philadelphia Eagles	vs. CLE	8
10	Arizona Cardinals	vs. NE	7

Given the decreased impact of kick returns in terms of a source of fantasy scoring over the past couple of years, it's become a position based on turnovers. That's why streaming the position from week to week is a strong option if you don't draft one of the top few defenses.

All of the defenses ranked in the top five should be in line to force a couple of turnovers, and then fantasy owners just have to hope at least one of them gets returned for a touchdown. The Seahawks, who dipped to No. 5 at the position last season, should start on a positive note.

Kickers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Prediction
1	Dan Bailey	DAL	vs. NYG	13
2	Mason Crosby	GB	at JAX	12
3	Justin Tucker	BAL	vs. BUF	11
T-4	Stephen Gostkowski	NE	at ARZ	10
T-4	Phil Dawson	SF	vs. LA	10

While it's possible to project which kickers should be good during the course of a 16-game season, no position is more random on a weekly basis. There are so many variables that come into play that it makes it difficult to know who will be the one who ends up with four field goals any given day.

In turn, most of the notable names crack the top five for the opening week just as a safe projection. One player who could be worth a stream should a fantasy owner be looking for a kicker is Phil Dawson, who should be available on many waiver wires.