MLB Betting Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds, Analysis

The St. Louis Cardinals (60-54) and Chicago Cubs (71-41) are both coming off wins heading into the opener of a key four-game series between the National League Central rivals on Thursday at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are listed as -170 home favorites (bet $170 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark after getting swept by the Cardinals in a three-game series at Wrigley in late June.

Chicago, the clear NL pennant favorite, is a much different team now compared to then, though, riding a nine-game winning streak into this matchup. The Cubs started a skid of 15 losses in 21 games in that previous series against St. Louis, and they are 18-6 since the All-Star break following a 3-1 victory against the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 12 games behind Chicago in the NL Central and dropped three of four prior to defeating the Cincinnati Reds 3-2 on Wednesday. Their last four wins have all been decided by one run, including three over the Reds.

Three of their past four meetings with the Cubs have also been decided by a margin of just one run, including two of their three victories between June 20 and 22, all as underdogs.

Carlos Martinez (10-7, 3.29 ERA) will toe the rubber for St. Louis, and he has been hit hard in each of his last two starts. He went 0-1 in those two outings after surrendering 11 runs (10 earned) and 14 hits in 12 combined innings of work against the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, both of which resulted in losses.

Jon Lester (12-4, 2.93) will oppose Martinez, and the Cubs have won each of the previous four games he started. Lester went 3-0 during that stretch, with two of the wins taking place at home.

Lester has been a much better pitcher at Wrigley this season, going 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA. Opposing batters have hit only .194 against him there, which is a stark contrast to last year, when he was 7-9 with a 3.60 ERA at home. Lester’s last three outings have finished over the total along with five of his past six.