Wimbledon 2016 Men's Semifinals: Federer vs. Raonic Preview, Predictions
He’s not done yet.
Pulling a comeback for the ages out of his bag of tricks, Roger Federer came from two sets down and saved three match points to survive a blistering display from Marin Cilic. The Swiss Maestro is safely (after a heart-pounding scare) through to his 11th semifinal at the All England Club.
Opposing him will be 2014 semifinalist Milos Raonic, who’s seeking his first appearance in a Grand Slam final. Like Federer, the 25-year-old Canadian had his own brush with defeat earlier in the tournament. Yet here he stands, rapping on the door of a career-shifting opportunity.
These two faced one another in this exact round two years ago—a match Federer took in straight sets. But the times have changed, and Raonic is a more accomplished and refined player now than he was on that day.
Will history repeat itself? Or will an improved Raonic deny Federer a shot at his eighth Wimbledon crown?
To help provide an answer, here’s a preview of this blockbuster duel.
Federer at Wimbledon 2016
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After withdrawing from the French Open to rest his ailing back and failing to win a title in either Stuttgart or Halle, Federer entered Wimbledon with more questions than answers about his form.
He looked vulnerable.
But the lawns at the All England Club have a way of imbuing him with life. Handed a favorable draw, third-seeded Federer shook off Guido Pella 7-6 (5), 7-6 (3), 6-3 in a competitive first-round match.
Next up: British sensation Marcus Willis. With a raucous crowd cheering for the underdog, Federer spoiled the party and ended Willis' fairytale run.
Daniel Evans, another Englishman, also fell prey to the Federer express, as did Steve Johnson in the fourth round. Through his first four matches, Federer hadn't dropped a set.
A much-tougher challenge presented itself in the quarterfinals.
Cilic, the powerful Croatian who crushed Federer in the 2014 U.S. Open semifinals, picked up where he left off and took the first two sets in dominant fashion.
Frustrated and unable to mount much resistance, Federer found himself down triple break point at 3-3 in the third. With the match slipping away, his survival instincts kicked into overdrive, and he won the next five points, eventually securing his first break of Cilic to grab the set.
Clutch serving carried Federer through a tense fourth-set tiebreak, and he held his nerve to ultimately complete the 6-7 (4), 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (9), 6-3 comeback.
"I fought, I tried, I believed,'' a succinct Federer told the Associated Press (h/t Tennis.com) after the match. ''At the end, I got it done.''
Raonic at Wimbledon 2016
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Prior to Wimbledon, Raonic made a bold move to aid in his quest of winning a Grand Slam title: hiring John McEnroe.
He sought out someone to not only improve his game but also provide wisdom. Everything's gone according to plan so far.
Raonic smoothly served his way past Pablo Carreno Busta, Andreas Seppi and Jack Sock in the opening rounds, bombarding them with aces and attacking the net at will.
His next opponent, 11th-seeded David Goffin, made life a lot tougher. The athletic Goffin stormed out to a two-sets-to-love lead—a deficit Raonic had never overcome before.
There's a first time for everything. Raonic used a rain delay to regroup and began playing more aggressively, racing back for a 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 victory.
Lifted by that gutsy performance, Raonic skated past Sam Querrey in the quarterfinals. Winning 87 percent of his first serves and a staggering 71 percent of his second serves (and coming to the net 47 times), Raonic put on a grass-court clinic and secured the match in four tight sets.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Federer owns a decisive 9-2 lead in this series, including a 2-0 advantage at Grand Slams.
One of those wins came here in the 2014 semifinals when Federer outclassed a greener Raonic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
Facing only a single break point that day, Federer also won 50 percent of Raonic's second serves—a blueprint he'll look to replicate again.
Grass makes Raonic's atomic serve even more potent, but Federer's nuanced game and superior movement skills are powerful antidotes.
Both of Raonic's wins against the Swiss came on hard courts, including this year's Brisbane final—their most recent meeting. A flu-stricken Federer tried his best but didn't have any answers for the Raonic serve.
As Federer looks to avoid a losing streak to Raonic, he can take confidence from the fact that five of his victories over Raonic came in straight sets.
Their matches are usually close, with Federer one step ahead in the crucial moments.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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Shoved through a physical and emotional ringer during his trapeze act of a quarterfinal, does Federer have enough left in the tank to stop another hard-hitting savant?
Battling knee and back injuries in recent months, Federer's shown few (if any) limitations during this fortnight. Serving well and floating around the court like only he can, the 34-year-old seems to have discovered the fountain of youth.
But what toll that bruising win over Cilic cost his body remains to be seen.
For Raonic, the presence of former champion McEnroe is a critical component to his success. McEnroe has him coming forward way more and playing first-strike tennis—tactics that make his game so tough on faster courts.
Knowing what to do is one thing; execution is another.
Does Raonic believe in himself enough to get the job done?
Federer Will Win If...
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Federer might not see many break points with Raonic's booming serves hurtling at him.
It's imperative he makes the most of whatever precious opportunities are created.
Historically, Federer's fared well against big servers like Andy Roddick, John Isner—and, yes—Raonic. He has an uncanny knack for staying patient and not becoming rattled by 140 mph bombs.
The key is capitalizing on the Raonic second serve and being aggressive on returns. If he can dictate these points and force his less agile challenger into extended rallies, Federer will gain the upper hand.
Mixing up his pace with slices and chips is a tactic Federer should employ to keep Raonic from getting into a rhythm.
On the flip side, knowing how lethal Raonic's serve is puts pressure on Federer to defend his own. He'll have to maintain a high percentage of first serves and hit out wide to pull Raonic off the court. That trusty kick serve into the deuce court will work wonders.
Heading into the semifinals, Federer's been broken only three times. He's served 65 aces compared to just two double-faults.
If he maintains that type of efficiency, Federer's ride will keep going.
Raonic Will Win If...
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This match is the biggest of Raonic's life.
Eying his first Grand Slam final, does he have what it takes mentally to outwit seven-time champion Federer?
Listening to him speak, it sounds like Raonic is better prepared than two years ago to handle the situation.
"Definitely mentally, physically. I think from every aspect, I've improved," Sports Illustrated's Jamie Lisanti quoted Raonic as saying. "I know what I need to do on court better. I know how to sort of turn things around to get them on my terms. I know what I'm looking for. I know how to go about it, to try to get to that position as much as I can."
Staying calm and sticking to his game plan are vital components for a Raonic victory. He'll need to serve impeccably while also redlining his shots and approaching the net to keep points short.
The best way to beat Federer is to simply hit him off the court. That's not an easy task, but it's one Raonic must complete in order to win.
Prediction
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Federer is playing with house money after that Houdini-like escape against Cilic.
Instead of boarding a plane for Switzerland, he's miraculously still lingering around SW19, ready to push his chips to the center of the table and claim the jackpot.
He'll have his work cut out for him on short rest against the hard-hitting Raonic, but his unparalled experience at Wimbledon and grass-court proficiency give him the edge.
This one has the makings of a close contest, with breaks of serve likely hard to come by. Yet Federer will find a way to prevail in four sets over his younger foe and reach championship Sunday for the third straight year.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com, unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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