Buying or Selling the Last-Minute Speculation for 2016 NHL Free Agency

The NHL's annual free-agent period begins on July 1. While Tampa Bay Lightning star Steven Stamkos is off the market, there's considerable conjecture over where other notable unrestricted free agents such as Los Angeles Kings left wing Milan Lucic could end up. 

And it's not just UFAs garnering notice in the rumor mill leading up to July 1. Restricted free agents such as Winnipeg Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba could receive an offer sheet.  There's also some trade chatter involving players such as Anaheim Ducks blueliner Cam Fowler.

Given the blizzard of trade and free-agent speculation at this time of year, it can be difficult to determine those to believe or discount. In the following slideshow, we'll attempt to separate those worth buying into from those to dismiss. 

You can express your views on this topic in the comments section below.  

Cam Fowler to the Detroit Red Wings?

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

The Speculation

On June 27, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press reported that Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland spoke to the Anaheim Ducks regarding defenseman Cam Fowler.

Analysis

The Wings desperately need a young, skilled, puck-moving blueliner. The Ducks are loaded with good young defenseman and need depth on the wing. They're also a budget team and could try moving Fowler's $4 million annual cap hit to make room for a forward this summer.

Fowler, 24, has exceeded 30 points three times in his six-year NHL career. His best seasons are still to come. 

Buy or Sell

Buy. The Ducks need depth on the wing and could ask for Tomas Tatar ($2.75 million cap hit for 2016-17) in return. The Wings could consider that option if they can land a high-scoring winger to replace Tatar via free agency.

Jonathan Bernier to the Florida Panthers?

Tom Mihalek/Associated Press

The Speculation

On June 27, Pierre LeBrun told Vancouver's TSN 1040 radio (via Chris Nichols of Today's Slapshot) that he believes the Florida Panthers had some interest in Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier.

Analysis

The Panthers need an experienced backup goalie now that Al Montoya is heading to free agency. With the Maple Leafs acquiring Frederik Andersen last week, Bernier's days with the Leafs are probably numbered.

Bernier, 27, appeared in 38 games last season, winning only 12 of them. He had a goals-against average of 2.88 and a save percentage of .908. He has a year left on his contract and is eligible next summer for free agency. 

Buy or Sell

Sell. The Leafs will have to pick up part of Bernier's $4.15 million salary-cap hit to entice the Panthers. Better and more affordable short-term options are available to the Panthers via free agency, such as James Reimer and Chad Johnson. 

Andrew Ladd to the New York Islanders?

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Speculation

On June 29, TSN's Darren Dreger included the New York Islanders on his list of teams with interest in Chicago Blackhawks free-agent left wing Andrew Ladd.

Analysis

With the departure of Kyle Okposo to free agency, the Islanders must find a skilled winger to skate alongside superstar center John Tavares. Ladd could be a good fit.

Since 2010-11, the 30-year-old Ladd has four 50-plus-point seasons. He's plays a physical two-way style and has leadership skills and two Stanley Cup rings.

Buy or Sell

Buy. Ladd could be a good fit with the Islanders, who could benefit from his skills, experience and leadership. With over $14 million in salary-cap room for 2016-17, the Isles can afford him if he'll accept a five-year deal worth around $5.5 million per season. 

Jacob Trouba to the Boston Bruins?

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

The Speculation

On June 28, CSN NE's Joe Haggerty mentioned a source claiming the Boston Bruins were preparing an offer sheet for Winnipeg Jets restricted-free-agent defenseman Jacob Trouba. He believes the offer must be worth an annual average value of $9.3 million to prevent the Jets from matching it. 

Analysis

The Bruins defense needs an injection of young talent. Trouba has the all-around skills to become a top-two rearguard. He's exceeded 20 points in each of his three NHL seasons.

If the Bruins successfully sign Trouba to an expensive deal, they must give the Jets four first-round draft picks as compensation, per Haggerty.

Buy or Sell

Sell. Trouba has promise but has yet to fully establish himself as a No. 1 defenseman. An offer sheet is fraught with too much risk for the Bruins. If Trouba fails to develop as hoped, they'll have a very expensive mistake on their hands for years.

Kyle Okposo to the Winnipeg Jets?

Scott Iskowitz/Getty Images

The Speculation

On June 25, Newsday's Arthur Staple reported that the Winnipeg Jets were among several teams with interest in New York Islanders right wing Kyle Okposo.

Analysis

The Jets are a cost-conscious team and usually don't get into the bidding for notable free agents. However, they have over $20 million in cap space, so they can afford to bid for Okposo. They could use a reliable second-line scoring right wing. 

Since 2009-10, the 28-year-old Okposo has four seasons with 50-plus points. He is expected to be among the most pursued players in the 2016 free-agent market. He could be just what the Jets need.

Buy or Sell

Buy. The Jets only made the playoffs once since landing in Winnipeg in 2011. They need more scoring depth on the wings to improve their postseason chances. Depending on the cost of re-signing defenseman Jacob Trouba, they could make a serious push to land Okposo.

Ben Bishop to the Dallas Stars?

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Speculation

On June 28, the Dallas Morning News' Mike Heika replied to a reader's question about the possibility of the Dallas Stars acquiring Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop. Heika considers such a move risky for both clubs. 

Analysis

Bishop was a finalist for the 2016 Vezina Trophy. He's considered among the NHL's top goalies. The 29-year-old is eligible next summer for unrestricted free agency and could prove too expensive for the Lightning to re-sign.

Heika suggested the Lightning shouldn't be in a rush to move Bishop, as he could help them contend next season for the Stanley Cup. He also noted that it would be a costly move for the Stars in terms of trade return and a new contract for Bishop.

Buy or Sell

Sell. To pull this off, the Stars must move either Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi. Their respective performances last season could hurt their trade value. Both are under contract for two more years and carry no-trade clauses. Bishop also has a no-movement clause and might be unwilling to move this year. 

Milan Lucic to the Edmonton Oilers?

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

The Speculation

On June 29, the Edmonton Journal's David Staples cited former Journal reporter Curtis Stock and Sportsnet's Gene Principe as reporting that the Edmonton Oilers had a deal in place with pending free-agent left wing Milan Lucic. Both said the deal would be officially announced on July 1. 

Analysis

During this interview period, a team can speak with another team's pending unrestricted free agent about the parameters of a deal. However, it can't get into specifics or negotiate a contract.

Lucic is considered among the league's top power forwards. The 28-year-old has exceeded 20 goals and 50 points four times in his nine-year career. He also has ties to Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli from their days with the Boston Bruins.

Buy or Sell

Buy. Soon after these reports appeared, WEEI.com's DJ Bean contacted Lucic, who strongly denied them. However, the Oilers' trading left wing Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for defenseman Adam Larsson on June 29 suggests that Lucic could become Hall's replacement. 

Stats by NHL.com and salary info via Cap Friendly.