MLB All-Star Voting 2016: Predictions for AL and NL Starting Rosters

Democracy has fared well enough in the MLB All-Star Game balloting, where fans are set to send deserving starters to this year's Midsummer Classic.

As much as Kansas City Royals fans have tried to ruin the voting process, the American League starting squad is in great shape. While the National League leaderboard isn't perfect, one of the two major mistakes could correct itself before the polls close Thursday at 11:59 p.m. ET.

MLB Communications reported no changes in Monday's final update before the official reveal. It would take considerable late surges to alter much, but one race remains open in each league.

Let's take a look at those tight bouts while predicting the final starting squads:

AL	Player	Team	Predicted Winner
NL	Player	Team	Predicted Winner
C	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	Perez
1B	Eric Hosmer	Kansas City Royals	Hosmer
2B	Jose Altuve	Houston Astros	Altuve
3B	Manny Machado	Baltimore Orioles	Machado
SS	Xander Bogaerts	Boston Red Sox	Bogaerts
OF	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Trout
OF	Jackie Bradley Jr.	Boston Red Sox	Bradley
OF	Mookie Betts	Boston Red Sox	Betts
DH	David Ortiz	Boston Red Sox	Ortiz
C	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	Posey
1B	Anthony Rizzo	Chicago Cubs	Rizzo
2B	Ben Zobrist	Chicago Cubs	Zobrist
3B	Kris Bryant	Chicago Cubs	Bryant
SS	Addison Russell	Chicago Cubs	Russell
OF	Dexter Fowler	Chicago Cubs	Fowler
OF	Bryce Harper	Washington Nationals	Harper
OF	Yoenis Cespedes	New York Mets	Cespedes

All-Star Predictions

American League: Mookie Betts Maintains Narrow Lead

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Four outfielders have realistic chances of walking away with the American League's final outfielder spot, which Mookie Betts currently occupies.

Last week, the Boston Red Sox star eclipsed Mark Trumbo, Lorenzo Cain and Jose Bautista on the ballot. In the recent update, his edge jumped from 27,023 to 93,891 votes, with Cain leapfrogging Trumbo to fourth place.

Of these candidates, Betts is the right choice:

Player	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	R	RBI	SB	WAR
Mookie Betts	.289/.330/.506	16	66	54	12	3.0
Lorenzo Cain	.291/.337/.418	8	39	39	6	1.9
Mark Trumbo	.279/.330/.554	22	43	55	1	1.4
Jose Bautista	.230/.360/.455	12	45	45	1	0.8

The 23-year-old has ascended to stardom with a massive power uptick. After going deep 16 times—12 since the end of April—he's two home runs away from matching last year's tally.

A complete package, he has also succeeded on 12 of 13 stolen-base attempts while playing solid defense in right field alongside center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., who will almost certainly represent the Red Sox in San Diego.

While Cain continues to flash world-class defense in center field, his bat has regressed to league-average levels with a .755 OPS and 101 weighted runs created plus. Trumbo has pelted an MLB-high 22 home runs, but he has struggled in the outfield.

Bautista, who is having a subpar year for his standards, is on the disabled list with a hyperextended big toe.

Ian Desmond has a legitimate claim over them all, but he's roughly 800,000 votes shy of Betts. The converted shortstop has accrued a 3.8 WAR in left field for the Texas Rangers, which puts him second among AL outfielders behind Mike Trout.

He'll have to settle for a reserve role, as Betts should extend his small lead over the final days. He's a young star in a big market who boasts eye-popping numbers. Along with scoring an MLB-best 66 runs and hitting for average, he's one of 10 players to amass double-digit home runs and steals.

National League: Buster Posey Overthrows Yadier Molina

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Anyone cynical about his or her votes not mattering should turn to the neck-and-neck battle unfolding between catchers Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran leads by 5,100 votes, down from his 75,413 advantage last week.

Fans are flocking to the San Francisco Giants' former MVP, who is batting .282/.344/.452 this season with hits in 12 of his last 14 contests. Molina, meanwhile, has cratered after a fast start. Since finishing April with a .341 batting average, he has hit .224.

The 33-year-old is highly regarded for his work behind the plate, but he's not hitting like an All-Star. Having gone deep only once this year, he holds a microscopic .345 slugging percentage. Wilson Ramos, a distant third on the catcher leaderboard, has a .341 batting average.

Yet voters tend to take a shine to the two established catchers, as MLB.com's Joe Trezza noted:

A Molina victory would create trouble for the National League players and managers. Posey, Ramos and Jonathan Lucroy would then have to fight for space on the bench, and there wouldn't be enough room for all three deserving candidates.

It makes little sense to award Molina for his defense when Posey is also a superior fielder. According to StatCorner, he has earned San Francisco's pitchers more called strikes with his framing than any other backstop in baseball. His five defensive runs saved rank third behind Derek Norris and AL vote leader Salvador Perez, who are tied with nine.

Even if the typical voter doesn't know this, he or she knows the .308/.372/.481 career hitter on and off the field. The 29-year-old recently became the head of Under Armour's baseball campaign, per the Baltimore Sun's Lorraine Mirabella.

"Buster is everything a team could ask for in a model baseball player," Ryan Kuehl, Under Armour's vice president of global category sports marketing, said. "His accomplishments speak for themselves, and Buster's humility, hunger and never-ending focus on being a better athlete and teammate every day are the values Under Armour was built on."

Molina has led for most of the way, but Posey has narrowed the gap enough to steal the starting spot at the last moment.

All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.