Fact or Fiction for Latest 2016 NFL Offseason Rumors

The NFL calendar has become yearlong as the league has mastered how to market offseason drama. Contract extensions, positional battles and holdout rumors swirl as uncertainty exists across the league. The speculation has ramped up lately as minicamps have ended and training camp is the next milestone before preseason games.

We have compiled the latest 2016 NFL offseason rumors, as well as whether we’re buying them or not. After identifying these rumors, we’ve labeled each with a fact or fiction designation based on the surrounding facts for each situation. Some of these rumors are typical offseason chatter, while others have too much noise around them to brush off as fiction.

Let’s dive in and see what’s going on around the NFL. What are your predictions for each rumor? Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

Fact: Darius Slay Will Receive Top-7 Cornerback Money

Jose Juarez/Associated Press

The latest rumor around contract negotiations revolves around Detroit Lions star cornerback Darius Slay. The 25-year-old is approaching his fourth season with the Lions, meaning it’s time for the team to address his impending free agency. Although Slay doesn’t get as much press as some other cornerbacks, he’s a lockdown defender with an ideal 6’0”, 190-pound frame.

According to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Slay is determined to receive an extension that would put him in the top seven salaries for the position. The former second-round pick is terrific in coverage, but his lack of elite interception numbers may hold him back from achieving his goal. He has just four in his first three seasons.

But Slay’s stickiness is promising to build around. It’s key to have a No. 1 cornerback on the roster, and the Lions would be wise to keep Slay through his prime years. He and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah are worthy building blocks at premier positions.

Even though a new contract for Slay will likely be in the $11 million annual range, the Lions must retain his talent. Good franchises simply don’t let players walk away for nothing in free agency.

Fiction: Denver Broncos' Quarterback Battle Is Wide-Open

Associated Press

Broncos QB Paxton Lynch

In a seemingly annual exercise this time of year, another first-round quarterback hasn’t been given the keys to the franchise quite yet. There’s usually one or two situations each year where coaching staffs don’t want to hand the starting job to their rookie signal-caller, but the most talented player almost always plays. It takes great restraint and long-term security to sit a rookie who is teeming with upside.

The Denver Broncos are trying their best to be patient with their own rookie, Paxton Lynch. The 6’7”, 244-pounder is undoubtedly better than either Trevor Siemian or Mark Sanchez, or else the Broncos wouldn’t have invested in the Memphis product. According to Paul Klee of the Gazette, the Broncos will enter training camp with a three-way, wide-open competition.

The lip service is understandable, as the organization doesn’t want to just give such a great opportunity without making someone earn it. But the reality is that Lynch should be the heavy favorite if the staff is giving everyone a fair chance to win the job. He’s simply more explosive and gifted than his peers. The only way Lynch doesn’t start is if the Broncos are adamant about slow-cooking him as he acclimates to the NFL.

Fact: Blaine Gabbert Is Favorite to Win 49ers Starting Job

Associated Press

49ers QB Blaine Gabbert

Ever since Chip Kelly set foot in the NFL, many pundits believed he’d gravitate toward more athletic quarterbacks who could impact the game as a dual-threat weapon. Besides his brief revitalization of Michael Vick in 2013, Kelly has gone the opposite direction. He’s favored accuracy and reliability from the position instead.

Now with the San Francisco 49ers, Kelly inherited two mediocre options to start in 2016. It’s completely feasible that neither Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert will even be on the roster next season, but each survived this offseason as the 49ers failed to find a better option. Though Kaepernick is the most explosive athlete Kelly’s had at quarterback during his NFL tenure, he may be leaning toward starting Gabbert.

According to NFL.com’s Michael Silver (via fellow NFL.com writer Dan Hanzus), Gabbert is the “heavy favorite” to win the starting job, noting his locker room leadership and improvement in 2015. Despite Gabbert’s lackluster 8-27 record as a starter compared to Kaepernick’s 21-8 record, his body of work has been more impressive in recent years when isolating his play. Kelly’s tendency to favor players like Gabbert and the difference in their play makes us buy this rumor.

Fiction: Haloti Ngata Will Have a Bounce-Back Season

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

In an effort to replace the loss of Ndamukong Suh last year, the Detroit Lions quickly worked to acquire defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The 6’4”, 345-pound mammoth lineman was a stalwart for nine years with the Baltimore Ravens before moving to Detroit. But his production and impact has dipped from his prime years as he now enters his mid-30s.

The 32-year-old told Paula Pasche of the Oakland Press he “feels like his old self.” Head coach Jim Caldwell told Pasche Ngata is fully healthy this year and is “hard to handle” with his blend of strength and speed. Caldwell may be proved right in limited doses, but effectiveness over a full 16 games—even on just early downs—may be too much to expect.

While Ngata played in 14 games last year and the Lions would be happy with his games-participated number, his impact is what will prove to be fiction. Even as a space-eating lineman, Ngata hasn’t regularly commanded double-teams since he turned 30. That’s unlikely to change all of a sudden.

Fact: Bud Dupree Is More Prepared to Produce This Season

Don Wright/Associated Press

For as much hype and attention as the NFL draft receives, it’s uncommon for rookies to make a big impact on their respective teams right away. The jump from college to the NFL is as steep as any across professional sports. It takes time for young players to continue maturing emotionally and physically in order to produce on the field.

Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker Bud Dupree had some success early in his career, notching four sacks and 26 tackles in five starts and 16 games played as a rookie. The uber-athletic edge-rusher was a raw technician as he transitioned from Kentucky to the Pittsburgh Steelers, likely causing some of his struggles as the season went on. According to Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Dupree says he’s in peak physical condition and ready to take on a bigger burden.

We’re buying this rumor as Dupree noted how working with veterans James Harrison and Arthur Moats has helped him not only improve his football shape, but also his understanding of the playbook. After going through the draft process from January through May, many rookies must suddenly change gear from practicing combine events to playing football. That’s missed time for young players to refine their football acumen instead.

Fiction: D.J. Hayden Will Reinvent Himself

Jim Mone/Associated Press

As well as the Oakland Raiders have drafted and overhauled their roster in recent years, their most glaring miss under general manager Reggie McKenzie has been cornerback D.J. Hayden. The 12th pick in the 2013 NFL draft, Hayden’s struggled greatly with the Raiders. His inconsistent coverage has allowed players like Travis Carrie and David Amerson to steal snaps, and each took full advantage.

The Raiders continued to bury Hayden on the depth chart after signing star corner Sean Smith this offseason. Barring any type of massive jump in effectiveness, Hayden figures to be the third or fourth corner on the depth chart. According to Scott Bair of CSN Bay Area, head coach Jack Del Rio believes Hayden can reinvent himself.

The slot cornerback position is still valuable even if it’s not considered a starting job, and Hayden will have the opportunity to earn that role. But if all things are equal in that battle, Hayden’s far from proving himself as the lead dog in the race. His former first-round status won’t buy him more time in Oakland as the team is making a huge push toward the playoffs, and nothing in his three seasons has suggested he’s ready to be a difference-maker.

Fact: Both Thomas Rawls and Jimmy Graham Will Play in 2016 Season Opener

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls

Injuries are a difficult projection in almost every situation because of the sensitive nature of the information that teams share with the public. When the Seattle Seahawks lost both tight end Jimmy Graham and running back Thomas Rawls to season-ending injuries in 2015, the offense survived when quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Doug Baldwin took their own games to a new level. Getting Graham and Rawls back will take pressure off the rest of the unit.

Graham wasn’t especially effective prior to tearing his patellar tendon in late November, but the emergence of Tyler Lockett and Baldwin will hopefully raise his per-play production, even if his total numbers aren’t close to his New Orleans days. Rawls would be the favorite to earn the starting running back job if he can fully recover from his broken ankle. Head coach Pete Carroll revealed to the Seattle Times' Jayson Jenks that both are expected back by opening kickoff.

Seattle starts the season facing three teams that finished 2015 with a losing record. That could entice the Seahawks to take it slower with their injured stars, but the franchise can’t afford to start slowly. While each may not play 100 percent of the snaps in the opener against the Miami Dolphins, they’ll be on the field.

Fiction: Case Keenum Will Hold Rams Starting Job over Jared Goff

Leon Bennett/Getty Images

Rams QB Jared Goff

As mentioned with the Denver Broncos and quarterback Paxton Lynch, some teams like to make their most recent investment go through some extra effort to secure the starting quarterback job. Quarterback Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, will undoubtedly be the face of the Los Angeles Rams for years to come, but the team is playing coy for now. According to Yahoo Sports writer Eric Edholm, head coach Jeff Fisher said it’s Case Keenum’s job until Goff proves he’s ready.

Fisher’s lip service is a way to avoid handing the starting gig over right away, but it’s not to be taken too seriously. If Keenum were better than Goff, the Rams wouldn’t have moved significant assets to get up to the top spot. He’ll leap to the top of the depth chart by the end of training camp.

How Goff does in his rookie season could greatly affect the loaded NFC West divisional race. The Rams have a roster filled with young talent. If some young players show development in 2016 and Goff can be average as a rookie, the Rams could challenge for the playoffs this season.  

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

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