NHL Free Agents 2016: Predictions for Top Players Who Will Hit Open Market

Bring on free agency.

It's time to start focusing on the NHL offseason, and nothing is more intriguing than the possibility of your team signing one of the league's top free agents. Below, we'll make predictions about where three of those players might end up this summer.

Steven Stamkos, F, Tampa Bay Lightning 

Steven Stamkos is the prized jewel of this free-agency class. He remains one of the league's most dynamic offensive talents, averaging 0.54 goals per game over his career. That compares favorably to many of the league's top scorers:

Player	Team	Goals Per Game (Career)
Alex Ovechkin	Washington Capitals	0.62
Steven Stamkos	Tampa Bay Lightning	0.54
Sidney Crosby	Pittsburgh Penguins	0.47
Evgeni Malkin	Pittsburgh Penguins	0.45
Corey Perry	Anaheim Ducks	0.41
Vladimir Tarasenko	St. Louis Blues	0.40
John Tavares	New York Islanders	0.40
Patrick Kane	Chicago Blackhawks	0.38
Tyler Seguin	Dallas Stars	0.38
Jamie Benn	Dallas Stars	0.37

Without question, Stamkos is a sniper and the league's best shooter, as Postmedia Network's Jonathan Willis (via the National Post) wrote:

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Over the last five years, Stamkos is the only NHL player to fire at least 500 shots and have a shooting percentage north of 18.0 percent. Being the league’s best shooter is impressive enough, but the margin of his lead is incredible.

Among our 500-shot club, Stamkos (18.1 percent), Jiri Hudler (17.7 percent) and Tyler Bozak (16.4 percent) are the only players to score on more than 16 percent of their shots. Hudler and Bozak, although undeniably gifted shooters, accomplish this in large part by being picky about when they shoot.

Stamkos isn’t nearly so selective. If we increase the minimum number of shots to 200 per season (1,000 total), the gap between Stamkos and the rest of the league gets bigger. The second-ranked shooter is now Corey Perry (14.8 percent) and he and Joe Pavelski (14.7 percent) are the only other scorers to clear the 14 percent hurdle.

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That type of scoring prowess is rare, so Stamkos is set to become a rich man this summer. And he's devastating on the power play, so he'll improve any squad's special teams play.

There are questions, of course. Stamkos isn't a spectacular two-way player, and his injury history is a concern. He had to undergo surgery to remove a blood clot earlier this season.

But at 26, he's in his prime and is well-established as one of the league's most dynamic offensive players. For a team with solid two-way players in place who can protect him, he should be superb.

So where does he end up?

"I definitely want to stay," Stamkos said of potentially returning to the Tampa Bay Lightning, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet. "That hasn't changed since the beginning. We'll continue to engage and talk now that it's not a distraction to the team and myself and the playoffs."

The Lightning can offer him something no other team can: an eight-year contract. They can also offer him an excellent supporting cast and the opportunity to compete for Stanley Cup titles. 

A team such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, on the other hand, can probably offer more money. 

As Pierre LeBrun of ESPN.com wrote: "Ultimately, it’s going to come down to Stamkos and what he truly wants: If he wants to stay, a deal will be there for him. If he wants to maximize on his UFA status, which is his right, no question a bigger offer awaits elsewhere July 1."

But if the Lightning at least make a competitive offer, Stamkos will likely return.

Prediction: Stamkos re-signs with Tampa Bay.

Milan Lucic, F, Los Angeles Kings

Rocky W. Widner/NHL/Getty Images

A source told LeBrun that Milan Lucic "would still prefer to re-sign and remain with the Kings but has also begun to accept and be comfortable with the possibility of heading to the market July 1. He’s ready for either scenario."

He added, "I think his preference is to re-sign in L.A. if the Kings come back to his camp with a good offer." 

Lucic will be a popular player in free agency if he doesn't re-sign, especially if Stamkos never hits the market. After racking up 20 goals and 55 points, Lucic, 28, remains one of the top offensive options in free agency.

It's boring, but Lucic seems likely to re-sign, much like Stamkos. Perhaps if the latter doesn't hit the market, Lucic will see what type of money is available. But if he truly wants to return to the Kings, that's what he'll do.

Prediction: Lucic re-signs with Kings.

Kyle Okposo, F, New York Islanders

Scott Iskowitz/Getty Images

Kyle Okposo, unlike Stamkos and Lucic, seems unlikely to return to the New York Islanders. And he seems likely to be a popular pick for teams that are looking to improve in free agency.

Okposo, 28, scored 22 goals and added 42 assists in 2015-16 for the Islanders; it was his third straight season with 50 or more points. He's a versatile, productive winger who could be the type of signing that takes a contending team to the next level. 

The Nashville Predators, for example, make sense for Okposo. His ability to play either wing would give the Predators versatility in their line selections and would offer them three excellent top lines.

Predicting a landing spot for Okposo is tough, because he'll have such wide interest around the league. But he would fit perfectly in Nashville. The team has some cap space to play with, and Okposo would have the chance to go from one contender to another while getting his big payday. 

Prediction: Okposo signs with Nashville.

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