UFC 200: Diaz-McGregor Rematch Might Make Dollars, but Does It Make Sense?

In some ways it feels like the more we learn about UFC 200, the less we understand.

The UFC on Wednesday confirmed earlier reports that Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor are indeed headed for an immediate rematch at the fight company’s bicentennial event in Las Vegas on July 9.

We’ve known this was coming ever since MMA Fighting.com’s Ariel Helwani broke the news almost two weeks ago. Even now that it’s been officially announced, however, it’s still not clear what exactly the UFC is doing by booking this immediate do-over—besides chasing another monster pay-per-view buyrate.

On its face, this is a fight that makes very little sense.

Maybe it was unavoidable, knowing how both Diaz and McGregor operate, but it’s still a big risk for both guys.

If Diaz loses, it’ll squander the longtime veteran’s sudden star turn after defeating McGregor at UFC 196. If he wins, it’ll further shatter the Irishman’s aura of mystic chill, this time perhaps beyond repair.

The first fight ended without controversy, so it’s tough to justify running things back so soon without coming right out and admitting that the wrong guy won.

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It was shocking when Diaz coaxed a quick-and-easy tap-out from McGregor in the second round of their initial meeting, but it was also fairly cut and dried. Unless you buy into the company line that McGregor “jumped up two weight classes” to fight Diaz—which is only half true—the ending seemed inarguably definitive.

Final, even.

It was at least as decisive as McGregor’s own interim featherweight title win over Chad Mendes under very similar circumstances at UFC 189. Funny, aside from perhaps Mendes’ camp, I don’t recall anybody throwing their hands up and exclaiming a rematch was needed after that one.

But now we’re told McGregor has become so preoccupied with the idea of fighting Diaz again that he won’t listen to reason. Apparently, even in the wake of his loss, he’s still calling the shots.

Or at least that’s how UFC President Dana White framed it during an appearance on ESPN SportsCenter on Wednesday, via Independent.ie’s Jack de Menezes:

"

He was obsessed—obsessed—with fighting Nate Diaz again. Obviously, [UFC co-owner] Lorenzo [Fertitta] and I tried to argue with him and say, "Let’s go back down to [1]45 and defend your title, or if you really want the Diaz fight that bad, do it at [1]55." But he wants to fight at 170. Even his coach, [John] Kavanagh, tried to get him to get off this rematch and off the 170-pound fight, but it’s what he wanted. And he’s going to get it.

"

So, to recap: The official story is that after suffering his first defeat in the UFC, McGregor was so consumed with getting revenge on Diaz that the people around him were powerless to stop him. His UFC bosses—the most powerful men in MMA—couldn’t talk him out of it. His longtime coach and mentor couldn’t do it, either.

McGregor was so adamant about getting the Diaz rematch that he demanded it right now. In so doing, he neglected his commitment to his own featherweight title—and so the fight company was forced to book an interim 145-pound championship bout between Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo for the same night.

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McGregor shook off the safe and sane notion of re-matching Diaz at 155 pounds—they are both natural lightweights, after all—and insisted on another welterweight fight, despite his earlier claims that the added weight and his inability to pace himself did him in the first time.

If all of that is true, you have to commend McGregor’s fighting spirit, but do any of those moves make strategic or logical sense? No.

Do they seem particularly advisable for his legacy or his long-term success as one of the UFC’s top stars? No and no.

It bears mentioning that Kavanagh tweeted on Thursday that it was the UFC’s stipulation, not McGregor’s, that the rematch go down at 170 pounds:

So all of that makes it very hard to discern what anybody’s really thinking.

For his part, Diaz contends he cares about very little besides making sure his money is right.

One of the most satisfying things about his ongoing victory tour is the knowledge that Diaz has done it all on his own terms.

It wasn’t that long ago that he was on the outs with the UFC over a sticky contract negotiation, getting slammed by White in the press and removed from the organization’s official rankings for “inactivity.”

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Now here he is, ready to reprise his role in one of the biggest-selling pairings in UFC history and he’s still acting like he doesn’t give a rip. During an appearance on Chael Sonnen’s You're Welcome podcast, Diaz said he thinks the UFC is angry with him for beating McGregor and potentially dashing plans to set up a fight with a returning Georges St-Pierre.

How much of that is real and how much of it only exists on Planet Diaz we may never know, though during a recent appearance on UFC Tonight he reiterated his desire to take fights that will pay him the most, regardless of divisional implications or what kind of hardware is on the line.

“I think that title thing is a fairy tale, man,” Diaz told Kenny Florian and Michael Bisping at the time. “All these guys are like, ‘I want that belt, I want to be the champion,’ but the best fighters in the world are getting paid the best money, you know? That might p--- a lot of people off, but money talks.”

So at least he and McGregor appear to be on the same page in that regard.

And look, we know neither of these guys is ever going to turn down a fight. It would be against their personal warrior codes. It’s possible both Diaz and McGregor might be master manipulators, savvy businessmen and their own worst enemies all at the same time.

Still, it’s hard to decipher exactly what’s going on here.

For weeks or months, MMA fans have tried to puzzle out what would be the featured attraction at UFC 200, and now you can’t blame some people for feeling underwhelmed about the prospect of this fairly nonsensical rematch.

Diaz and McGregor put on a great show in their first fight and will likely do so again, but launching them immediately into a rematch feels shortsighted and even a touch cynical.

Is it all about getting McGregor his momentum back? Is it all about propping up short-term PPV sales to make the company look more desirable to potential buyers? Is the UFC really so helpless to withstand McGregor’s demands?

Simply put, why this fight?

Why now?

And why 170 pounds?