Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Odds: September 28th 2009

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins +121 odds (September 28th 2009)
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This series will obviously go a long way in deciding the American League Central. The Tigers pretty much had this division within their grasp early this month as they had a seven-game lead over the Twins and an eight-game lead over the White Sox on September 6th. The White Sox did not make a move but Minnesota did as it has made up five games since then and it trails by just two games heading into this four-game set. The Twins have won 11 of their last 13 games and they cannot afford to lose this series and even a split is to their disadvantage. The Twins have dropped three of five at Detroit, but hold a 9-5 overall advantage in the season series and after starting the season pretty bad on the road, they have been able to make up a lot of ground. The starting pitching matchup looks to favor the Tigers but I prefer the experience in this one as this is as close to a playoff game as you can get. Nick Blackburn is coming off back-to-back quality starts following a rough outing against Oakland and he is the one pitcher Minnesota needs to come through to get this series going the right way. He has actually pitched better on the road this season than at home and in 16 road outings, 11 of those have been quality performances including four straight. Rookie Rick Porcello has really picked things up for the Tigers as he has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts with three of those being quality versions. This is by far his biggest outing of the season and while he has been solid at home, he faces a Twins offense that has been on fire. During this 13-game run, the Twins have averaged 6.2 rpg and they are hitting .303 over their last 10 games. The Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against a right-handed starter. The Tigers do have the third best home record in baseball but they are just 6-13 in their last 19 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. 3* Minnesota Twins