Realistic Champions League Expectations for Atletico Madrid

The UEFA Champions League is back up and running with the last-16 matches having begun in the past couple of days, and Atletico Madrid will be involved in their tie against PSV Eindhoven next week, with the first leg taking place in the Netherlands.

Atleti have been one of the big sides challenging for major European honours over the last few years, building on their 2012 Europa League success by pushing into the latter stages of the bigger tournament, too, most notably reaching the Champions League final in 2014.

With competition to lift the title as fierce as ever this year, how far can manager Diego Simeone's side hope to go?

The Known

After the draw for the last 16 was made, we suggested it was the perfect situation for Los Rojiblancos; an opponent Atletico would certainly hope to beat over two legs—not a poor team as such, but certainly not one considered among the top challengers to lift the title.

That still stands, but if anything, PSV will have made Atletico even more cautious of any slip-up over the last couple of months.

The Dutch Eredivisie club are top of the table by a single point after 23 matches and on a seven-match win streak in league play. In Europe, their progression from the group stage showed their strength at home: They won all three home games, beating Manchester United, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow, but they only scored in one away game and took just one point on the road in a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford.

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PSV are clearly hard to beat at home and have only conceded 11 at the Philips Stadion in the league this season, but that pales in comparison to Atletico's defensive record. Jan Oblak and Co. have allowed a measly five goals in 13 away games in La Liga this season. They'll certainly make PSV work for chances in the first leg and will be perfectly happy to take the tie back to the Vicente Calderon either on an even scoreline or close to it.

Atletico haven't always been the most free-scoring of sides, but they should still have more than enough in their squad to see off the Dutch team over two legs, moving into the quarter-finals.

The Unknown

Benfica and Paris Saint-Germain hold narrow leads from their first-leg games, while several will consider Wolfsburg and Real Madrid strong favourites to go through from the other ties that are underway. The issue with any predictions from this point is of course that the next draw is entirely open; no seeds and no country protection will be in play.

Atletico's combination of defensive solidity and individualism in attack, as well as a rediscovered set-piece threat of late, will give them plenty of hope of being able to beat most sides remaining. Zenit or Benfica, Wolfsburg or Gent—any of the quartet would find the going tough against La Liga's second-placed team. You can add Manchester City or Dynamo Kyiv to that list, too, regardless of who triumphs.

Coming up against Barcelona or Real Madrid would obviously be a titanic struggle for Atleti. The suspicion would be, judging by the current Liga season, that they could come through against Real if the entire team was on their game, but Barcelona look unstoppable. Bayern Munich or Juventus, huge squads and in great form, would be similarly problematic.

Consistency

Atletico might not be one of the top three favourites to lift the Champions League this season, but they can certainly hold plenty of hope of making the semi-finals.

They have a style of play that won't change just because they're facing one team or another, and several players are right at the top level with their current forms, including centre-backs Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin and midfielder Saul. 

Atleti are tough to break down, won't concede cheap goals and always maintain a goal threat with Antoine Griezmann in the team, though the loss of pacy winger Yannick Carrasco could be an issue.

PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA/Getty Images

The main key will be to beat PSV and claim a spot in the last eight. At that point, Atletico are probably at par given the rest of the teams, but they are more than capable of beating a big-name opponent over two legs and reaching the semi-finals, even if the draw is unkind.

At that point, all Atleti need is a single upset elsewhere in the draw, and anything beyond reaching the last four becomes a tantalising prospect, but the manager likes to keep things realistic and play down his team's chances—so a semi-final berth is most certainly what Atletico should be aiming for this season.

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