Australian Open 2016 Women's Semifinal: Williams vs. Radwanska Preview
After yet another lopsided victory over Maria Sharapova, defending champion Serena Williams advanced to the semifinals at the Australian Open, in search of a seventh crown Down Under.
Her opponent is Agnieszka Radwanska, a woman still hunting for that elusive maiden Grand Slam title. Rolling into Melbourne victorious at her last three tournaments, Radwanska has kept that momentum going. Now she's just two wins away from achieving her goal.
But does she stand a chance against the dominant force that is Williams?
The following slides will break down this pivotal matchup by examining the history between these two players, how they reached this point and what they each can do to win.
Though Williams is the heavy favorite, this year's Australian Open has taught us one thing: Expect the unexpected.
Williams at the 2016 Australian Open
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A left knee injury put Williams on the shelf after her loss at the 2015 U.S. Open, and concerns were raised when she withdrew from the Hopman Cup a few weeks ago because of lingering pain.
She's since negated any such questions about her health with an impressive run to the semifinals.
Perhaps a little rusty in her opening match against Camila Giorgi, Williams toughed out a 6-4, 7-5 win. Then she quickly found her form. In the next three rounds, Williams eased past Su-Wei Hsieh, Daria Kasatkina and Margarita Gasparyan, losing no more than two games in any set.
Williams saved her best tennis for a blockbuster quarterfinal showdown with Sharapova, winning that match 6-4, 6-1 in 92 minutes. For the 18th-straight time in that rivalry (if you can call it that anymore), Williams came out on top.
Serving efficiently and cutting down on unforced errors, the top seed looks sharp ahead of her seventh semifinal appearance in Melbourne.
Radwanska at the 2016 Australian Open
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Radwanska has marched through the draw with relative ease, dropping just one set so far.
Scoring a first-round win over Christina McHale, the fourth seed followed up that result by squashing Eugenie Bouchard's upset hopes.
In the third round, Radwanska made quick work of Monica Puig, bageling her foe in the second set. But she'd be pushed to the brink in her next match against unseeded Anna-Lena Friedsam.
For more than two-and-a-half hours, they pushed each other to the limit, playing 199 grueling points. Radwanska rebounded after losing the first set in a tiebreak, yet the final act was dramatic, to say the least.
Both players traded a pair of breaks, and it seemed like the match would go on long into the night. Unfortunately, leg cramps set in for Friedsam, and Radwanska pulled out a tough win.
The quarterfinals proved far easier for the Pole, who lost only four games to 10th-ranked Carla Suarez Navarro. As her opponent fell apart, Radwanska dominated the match to earn a second trip to the Australian Open semifinals.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Williams has the edge against virtually every player—but especially so against Radwanska.
The top-ranked American is a sterling 8-0 in their head-to-heads, dropping just one set total to her foe in those matches.
Using her overwhelming power and offensive tenacity, Williams frequently bullies Radwanska around the court. It's a tactic that works extremely well for the world No. 1 and one that will continue in their ninth meeting.
From Miami to Toronto, Beijing and the WTA Championships, they've played each other on some of the biggest stages, including the 2012 Wimbledon final, which Williams won in three sets. That match was four years ago, but Radwanska needs to channel some of that magic to go the distance.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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For Williams, her championship pedigree is the ultimate X-factor.
A 21-time Grand Slam singles winner, her legacy alone is an imposing presence, striking fear and doubt into any opponent. At the Australian Open, Williams has captured the title six times (2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015) already. In fact, every occasion she's made the semifinals Down Under, the defending champion has gone on to win the crown.
How can you compete with that type of proficiency?
Radwanska will try, and her momentum may be her biggest asset. On paper, she doesn't have the game to truly bother Williams. But she brings plenty of confidence after conquering last year's WTA Championships and earning a season-opening title in Shenzhen.
On a 12-match winning streak, Radwanska will look to strike while the iron is still hot.
Williams Will Win If...
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To reach her seventh singles final in Melbourne, the formula is quite simple for Williams: just play her natural game.
Her serve and groundstrokes are probably the most powerful shots in the history of women's tennis. She terrorizes opponents from the baseline, using a first-strike approach to keep points (and matches) short. When Williams is on a roll, get out of the way.
Radwanska can't win in a toe-to-toe matchup with Williams. If she tries to, a swift defeat will be in the cards.
Coming out of the gate aggressively is Williams' key to victory—send an early message to Radwanska and race to the finish line.
Radwanska Will Win If...
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To even have a chance at landing the upset, Radwanska will have to play the match of her life. Easier said than done.
Against such an offensive-minded player like Williams, she'll be tempted to play outside of her comfort zone and go for broke. That would be the absolute wrong approach. You can't outhit Williams. No one can.
Instead, Radwanska should consider how Roberta Vinci took down Williams at last year's U.S. Open. Using guile and finesse, Vinci shocked the world and scored one of the biggest upsets in tennis history.
How did she do it? Vinci didn't give Williams pace; she mixed up her shots and made the champion work tirelessly from the baseline. A nimble and fit player (like Radwanska), Vinci's defensive skills helped her weather the storm and outlast Williams over the course of three memorable sets.
The pain from that loss still lingers with Williams, and she's intent on making amends. But if Radwanska uses a similar blueprint and plays a tactically smart match, maybe, just maybe, she can earn a career-defining win.
Prediction
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Tip of the hat to Radwanska—she's had a phenomenal couple of weeks and more than deserves her spot in the semifinals.
Yet her run (and another Grand Slam title quest) is about to end. There will be no Cinderella finish here.
Even if she brings her A game, it still won't be enough. Williams is peaking at the perfect moment in the tournament, and she won't be denied.
With a seventh title at the Australian Open on the horizon, Williams is poised to leap past Radwanska and maintain her mastery in their rivalry.
Prediction: Williams in straight sets
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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