Daily Fantasy Football December 30: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

A satisfying ending drastically improves an otherwise dull story, sending everyone home happy despite enduring a dull introduction and body. Select NFL players hope to exploit such selective memory by closing the season strong.

Afterthoughts for most of the year, these three players are suddenly hitting their stride and receiving an advantageous Week 17 matchup. Due to their rough course, they're cheap DraftKings options for the regular season's final weekend.

Others aren't as lucky, but one faller still warrants consideration in spite of a brutal Week 16. With no Thursday or Saturday games muddling the slate, there's plenty of time to compartmentalize this midweek stock report.

Stock Up

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($5,500)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Matt Ryan's 306 yards and one touchdown didn't carry anyone to victory, but it's a step in the right direction.

Against the then-undefeated Carolina Panthers, who yield the fifth-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks, the Atlanta Falcons signal-caller deposited his most DraftKings points (18.34) since Week 11 and most yards since Week 8. Despite facing a top defense that shut him down two weeks ago, he completed all but seven of his pass attempts.

As noted by Pro Football Focus, more than half of those misconnections were accurate throws:

Heading into Week 17, gamers will take any reason they find to trust Ryan. Atlanta faces the New Orleans Saints inside the Georgia Dome on Sunday. Fresh off surrendering 368 yards and four touchdown passes to Blake Bortles, they have now relinquished 281.1 passing yards per game and 43 touchdowns through the air.

The Falcons' lack of offensive depth has hindered them all year, but Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman will prove enough to slice the Saints open. Over the past five years, Ryan has averaged 28.6 touchdowns per season. Currently stuck at 19, look for him to narrow the wide gap.

Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants ($3,700)

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Rashad Jennings has survived the New York Giants' four-back committee and lived to tell about it.

Head coach Tom Coughlin has employed the time-tested strategy of picking a name out of his hat to determine which running back plays on a drive-by-drive basis. (Or maybe he just goes by gut or some other set rotation, but it seems random enough to get picked out of a hat.)

Andre Williams occasionally plays to give Coughlin his fix of two- or three-yard runs. Shane Vereen receives a critical role as a pass-catcher roughly once a month. Orleans Darkwa—wait, what ever happened to him? Jennings, the expected starter entering the season, is finally acting like one.

The 30-year-old running back hadn't accrued more than 13 handoffs in a game until Week 14, when he collected 22 carries against the Miami Dolphins. He has since earned his spot atop Big Blue's backfield hierarchy with his best running of the season:

WEEK	OPP	RUSH	RUSH YD	TD	REC	REC YD
14	@ MIA	22	81	0	2	21
15	CAR	16	107	1	1	0
16	@ MIN	14	74	0	2	62

Perhaps the scarce role kept him fresh while defenses wore down. There's nothing to save him for now, and while it'd make sense to give Darkwa an extended look, Coughlin isn't likely to comply as his hot seat burns.

Gamers haven't had an opportunity to comfortably play a Giants back all season, but a suddenly featured Jennings will fill his plate against the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank No. 27 in rushing defense and DraftKings points allowed to running backs. He's a noteworthy flex bargain available for $3,700. 

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,600)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Maybe Zach Ertz just likes Week 16.

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles tight end maneuvered his way onto 2015 breakout lists by recording 15 catches for 115 yards against Washington. On Saturday, another Week 16 tilt versus Washington, he grabbed 13 of 17 targets for 122 yards.

On an offense collectively disappointing the fantasy universe, Ertz didn't meet any preseason hype. Lately, however, he's turning into a target monster and useful starter supporters hoped he could become in Philadelphia's uptempo offense:

WEEK	OPP	REC	TAR	REC YD	TD
14	BUF	5	7	98	0
15	ARI	8	13	78	1
16	WAS	13	17	122	0

Last year, Ertz followed up the huge Week 16 with a humdrum four catches and 56 yards against the Giants. Perhaps pressed for time, the schedule-makers copied and pasted 2014's slate and again gave the Eagles a Week 17 date with the G-Men. This time, they're a tight end's dream.

According to NFL.com, the Giants have acquiesced 89 receptions, 1,108 yards and nine touchdowns to the position. Outside of New Orleans, a tight end can't ask for a better opponent, and Ertz capitalized by scoring one of his three touchdowns against the Giants in Week 5.

Even if he doesn't cross the pylons again, he's getting too many looks to pass up for $3,600.

Stock Down

Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($4,200)

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

In a moment nearly three years in the making, Christine Michael finally graduated from the back of the Seattle Seahawks depth chart to back of the Dallas Cowboys depth chart to center spotlight for Seattle. Nothing amounted of his opportunity.

Michael rushed for six yards on as many carries during a surprising 23-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams. Not only did St. Louis jump out to a 10-0 edge, but Seattle's wildly inefficient running led the offense to ditch the ground game altogether.

After years in the shadows, the 25-year-old back looked poised for late-season heroics following an 84-yard display against the Cleveland Browns, a Week 15 game for which he wasn't even listed on DraftKings' catalog. Everybody instead utilized him for his Week 16 dud.

Wondering who will get Seattle's carries suddenly isn't worth the time. The Arizona Cardinals rank No. 4 against the run, relinquishing 3.9 yards per rush. When they faced the Seahawks in Week 10, Marshawn Lynch was limited to nine touches during a 39-32 shootout controlled by the Cardinals.

Neither Michael, Bryce Brown nor Fred Jackson will be featured enough to consider this weekend.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,100)

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Carrying the burden of high expectations, Jeremy Hill frequently rents space in the "Stock Down" section. Hiding underneath Hill's shadow, Giovani Bernard has received a pass despite falling off the map of relevancy.

The 24-year-old running back started the season by earning double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games. Since then, he has topped 10 twice in nine tries. He has failed to hit the mark in five consecutive contests, averaging a pedestrian 8.1 points.

That production puts him in Joique Bell territory, and even he has found the end zone during back-to-back weeks. Once Hill's equal in the Cincinnati Bengals backfield, Bernard has become relegated to intermittent work: 

PLAYER	RUSH	RUSH YD	YPC	TD	REC	REC YD	TD
Bernard	43	129	3.0	0	14	134	0
Hill	83	339	4.1	5	5	20	0

Bernard is averaging 4.7 yards per carry to Hill's 3.4, yet Hill keeps getting the ball, especially in the red zone. Bernard has scored twice this season; Hill has scored at least twice during four separate games.

Combine the two, and you'd have one stellar fantasy back. Minimize the more talented player's workload and limit the one-dimensional rusher to a rickety, sporadically functional scoring machine, and you have two flawed flex plays not worth the hassle.  

Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,300)

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Everything pointed to a massive Week 16 for Martavis Bryant. A week after registering a career-high 10 receptions, the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver faced a Baltimore Ravens defense allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to wideouts. Oh yeah, he also had 15 career touchdowns in 19 career games.

He finished with a six-yard catch and four-yard run. And no, neither happened to end in six points. 

A big-play menace for most of the season, Bryant has averaged 7.9 yards per catch over the last three games. Meanwhile, Markus Wheaton has tallied 419 yards through the past five weeks. Per NFL.com's Matt Harmon, Wheaton's downfield role has expanded at Bryant's expense:

When routinely posting 30-plus points behind more than 300 passing yards from Ben Roethlisberger, Bryant, Wheaton and star wideout Antonio Brown all shone without derailing each other's worth. In a rare off-day against Baltimore, all three underwhelmed.

Look for Pittsburgh's prolific passing attack to rebound against the Browns, giving Bryant ($5,300) upside appeal to conclude a promising season.

Fantasy scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com unless otherwise noted.

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