Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Arizona Cardinals rate as one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, riding an eight-game winning streak into their home date with Green Bay on Sunday. But with success comes stiffer spreads, and the Cardinals are 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games. Can they buck that trend this week?

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as four-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.6-18.7 Cardinals

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay stumbled through a 1-4 stretch midseason but has righted its ship and now won three games in a row both SU and ATS following a 30-20 victory at Oakland last week. The Packers grabbed an early 14-0 lead on the Raiders but fell down 20-17 midway through the third quarter. They immediately reasserted control, navigating a short field set up by a good kickoff return in just three plays, capped off by a beautiful Aaron Rodgers-to-James Jones 30-yard touchdown hookup that gave Green Bay the lead for good.

The Packers then secured the victory and the cash as four-point favorites with a couple of Mason Crosby field goals and five stops by the defense. Green Bay actually got outrushed and outgained by Oakland, but prior to last week the Pack had outgained three opponents in a row and outrushed four of their previous five foes.

As for this week, the only other time this season the Packers played as underdogs they dominated the Vikings in Minneapolis 30-13.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

The only team in the NFL with a longer winning streak right now is Carolina, after the Cardinals' 40-17 grounding of the Eagles in Philly last week. The Cardinals scored a touchdown on the opening possession of the game, took a 17-10 lead into halftime, then established control with a defensive stop off the second-half kickoff and another scoring drive on their way to the easy cover as four-point road favorites.

Arizona outrushed the Eagles 230-74, as rookie running back David Johnson exploded for 187 yards and three touchdowns. So the Cardinals have outrushed seven of their last eight opponents and outgained eight of their last nine foes. They're also now 5-2 ATS this season when favored by less than a touchdown.

Smart pick

The team that wins the ground battle will probably win this game and cover this spread, and that team is more likely to be Arizona.

Betting trends

The Packers are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the NFC West division.

The Cardinals are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC North division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.