Holiday Bowl Betting: Southern Cal vs. Wisconsin Odds, Analysis and Pick

Southern Cal has been hell on the Big Ten in recent history, winning its last 15 meetings with college's Black and Blue Division and going 11-4 against the spread. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 0-4 straight up and 1-2-1 ATS in its last four games against the Pac-12. In a classic Midwestern-West Coast bowl matchup, the Trojans tangle with the Badgers in the Holiday Bowl.

Holiday Bowl point spread: The Trojans opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.8-23.2 Badgers

Why the Trojans can cover the spread

Southern Cal started just 3-3 this season, although two of the losses came against Stanford and Notre Dame, games it led in the second half. The Trojans then won four in a row to take over the lead in the Pac-12 South. A loss at Oregon snapped the streak, but a 40-21 victory over UCLA in the regular-season finale earned USC a trip to the conference championship game.

The Trojans scored early in the fourth quarter in the rematch against the Cardinal to pull within five points but could get no closer in a 41-22 defeat.

USC lost that conference title tilt on the stat sheet, but prior to that, it had outgained eight of its previous nine opponents and outrushed six of its previous seven foes. Southern Cal is also 4-0 ATS this season when favored by less than a touchdown.

Why the Badgers can cover the spread

Believe it or not, but for a couple of plays here and there, Wisconsin could be playing for big stakes this bowl season. The Badgers opened this season with a loss to Alabama, then won three in a row. But four turnovers, including a fumble on the Iowa 1-yard line early in the fourth quarter, cost Wisconsin dearly in a 10-6 loss to the Hawkeyes.

The Badgers rebounded to win five in a row but then had three touchdowns negated either by penalty or replay and lost to Northwestern, 13-7. Wisconsin then closed out the regular season with a 31-21 victory over rival Minnesota.

The Badgers outgained and outrushed the Gophers and have now outgained nine of their last 11 opponents and outrushed eight of 11.

Wisconsin struggled offensively this season, with its worst per-game rushing performance in recent memory, but it did just run for 257 yards against Minnesota. And defensively, the Badgers rank third in the country overall and No. 1 in scoring, allowing just 13 points per game.

Smart pick

USC owns the edge on offense, but Wisconsin owns the edge on defense. If they can get some decent play at quarterback and avoid the turnovers, the Badgers might win this game outright.

Betting trends

Southern Cal is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 bowl games.

Wisconsin is 1-4 SU in its last four bowl games.

The total has gone under in six of the last seven Holiday Bowls.

The underdog has covered in four of the last five Holiday Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.