LSU vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds, Pick & Point Spread: September 26th 2009

LSU vs. Mississippi State
Free Pick: Mississippi State +12.5 betting odds - point spreads
Visit Touthouse.com for more NCAA football picks from Matt Fargo

I was very impressed with Mississippi St. last week. I used them as a premium play and it won outright over Vanderbilt as an 8.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs outgained the Commodores 341-157 and the defense allowed just 33 yards rushing on 29 carries (1.1 ypc). It was a huge win considering not only was it on the road but it showed great resolve following a blowout loss as Auburn the previous week. While that was impressive, the LSU victory over Louisiana-Lafayette was not. The Tigers won that game by 28 points but they outgained the Cajuns by only 63 total yards as the offense continues to struggle. LSU has not gained more than 330 in any of its three games this season and its 325.7 ypg average is 90th in the nation. The defense has carried them for years and right now. LSU is allowing 320 ypg which is good for 46th in the country which is very average. The Bulldogs right there, allowing just 323 ypg and while the schedule has not been as difficult, it has not been that much softer than that of LSU’s. The spread offense for Mississippi St. is coming around as it seems to be executing better and better a each game passes. The passing game has not developed much but the bright spot is the rushing game, where it is averaging 221.7 ypg which is 20th best in the country. Running the ball will obviously be important again this week as controlling the time of possession is goal number one. LSU has owned this series with nine straight wins but a 10-point loss last season at Baton Rouge can inspire some confidence and add to the momentum from Saturday road victory. This is a large for a road team to be putting down and it falls into a great situation favoring the home team. Play on conference home underdogs between 10.5 and 21 points that are coming off a conference victory. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Add to that, LSU is 0-8 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons and it is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. Play Mississippi St. Bulldogs