NFL Fantasy Football Week 15: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

Setting rosters for Week 15 in fantasy football is one of the more stressful scenarios of the season because of the handful of impactful injuries and depth chart shifts recently. It's on us as fantasy managers to navigate the many eroding rosters around the league and mine for the most positive margins among the bargain buys and new names.

Just last week the New England Patriots' Brandon Bolden was available in nearly every fantasy league, but injuries above him on the depth chart have him poised as a strong flex option in the top 20 of rankings at the position. 

It's not just about the team we drafted in August but also the meaningful new names we find these final weekends of the season, as fantasy championships are often won via a combination of strong drafts and proactive waiver management late into the season. 

Please join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities, such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries affecting this specific week's market. 

As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 15 in the comments below. 

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 15: "Shoelace" Set to Shine

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Late in the season, as rosters erode, it's helpful to identify some widely available players with the potential to provide instant production from the waiver wire.

While these players aren't stars, we're looking for some of the better bargain buys who are available for free in around 40 percent of ESPN leagues entering Sunday's slate.

Quarterback Values

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills

We don't want to get too cute deep into the fantasy playoffs, but the fantasy floor for Taylor has actually proved quite high for his being available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN leagues. The rushing production for Taylor—he has at least 28 yards in seven games this season—helps buoy a nice outcome spectrum in facing a Washington defense that has allowed 12.5 yards per completion this season, the fifth-highest rate in football.

Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Available for free in nearly half of ESPN leagues, Smith faces a suspect Baltimore secondary that has surrendered the most receiving touchdowns to wideouts and the second-most fantasy points to signal-callers this season, per ESPN.com.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets

We push "Fitz" nearly every week in this section, in part because he's 11th among quarterbacks in total fantasy points in ESPN leagues and has at least two touchdowns in seven of his past nine outings. The Cowboys' depleted secondary opens up even more upside for this quietly potent Jets passing game. 

Running Back Bargains

Brandon Bolden, New England Patriots

Bolden's emergence is yet another injury-fueled fantasy narrative for us to consider. The Patriots running game has proved hard to read throughout the season in some senses, but game-flow trends suggest Bolden could be busy with the Pats positioned as massive home favorites over the Tennessee Titans (who just let Chris Ivory run all over them in Week 14), per Odds Shark. 

LeGarrette Blount was at his best in these dominant positions, which suggests Bolden could be a fine flex for this important weekend of fantasy football. The Boston Herald's Adam Kurkjian reports Bolden is ready for more work. 

Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

We pitched "Shoelace" as the top sleeper asset heading into the weekend earlier this week: 

"

Denard Robinson still holds the NCAA record for career rushing yards by a quarterback with 4,495 for Michigan. Now a running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Robinson is positioned to thrive down the stretch in place of an ailing T.J. Yeldon, who suffered an MCL injury, per Ryan O'Halloran and Hays Carlyon of the Florida Times-Union. 

The Jaguars are fifth in the NFL in points-per-drive since Week 10, a signal of offensive efficiency that speaks to the emergence of signal-caller Blake Bortles. While the team has found success via the air this season, they are just 17th in rushing yards and 27th in rushing scores. 

Yeldon was a respectable 22nd in fantasy points per game this season with 9.1 per game in ESPN standard scoring. In the six games in his career, including Week 14, with at least 15 total touches, Robinson has averaged 14.0 fantasy points, which would rank as the seventh-best rate this season. 

"

Waiver Wideouts

Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens

Aiken is still available in 40 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time, and yet he faces a Kansas City Chiefs secondary that is ceding the fifth-most fantasy points and second-most yards to receivers this season. Aiken has led the team in targets since Steve Smith Sr. went down, which suggests a high floor is in place, even if the Ravens' limited offense limits any upside appeal here.

Dontrelle Inman, San Diego Chargers

The Bolts have been decimated in the passing game this season, particularly at receiver, with Stevie Johnson ruled doubtful, per the team. That leaves Inman a potentially dominant market share of the pass-happy San Diego offense (it has the most pass attempts in the league this season). The Miami Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts, which only adds to the upside pitch for those in desperate scenarios at wideout. 

Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee Titans

You have to really be hunting for home runs in deploying "DGB" in a playoff setting. The upside sell isn't so tough, as he's the team's top vertical target, and there is plenty of game-script potential to trend pass-happy for a Titans team that enters New England as a huge dog. 

Tight End Streamers

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Ertz has seen increased offensive attention over the past two weeks and faces a middling matchup, with the Arizona Cardinals ceding just 6.5 fantasy points to the position. Arizona has struggled over the middle at times with its linebackers in coverage, while Ertz is really just a boom-or-bust asset at a shallow position. 

Vernon Davis, Denver Broncos

Davis had a glaring drop late in Week 14 that proved costly, but we can also focus on the fact he set season highs across the board in the meaningful receiving metrics. The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season in ESPN leagues, while game script could trend pass-heavy with the Steelers' elite offense pushing the point total up. 

Game-Time Decisions in Week 15

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

This late into the season, injuries induce questionable scenarios all over the league. Several fantasy-relevant injury scenarios require further exploration and explanation—something we aim to accomplish in this section. 

Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs: Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star reports Ware returned to practice Friday and earned questionable status entering the weekend. This affects Charcandrick West's upside spectrum more than anything, as Ware can consume enough snaps and touches to effectively downgrade West against a sound Baltimore rush defense. 

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: The Charlotte Observer's Joseph Person reports we can expect a committee backfield in place of Stewart, who has been ruled out for Sunday. Committee is essentially a curse word in fantasy football, one we can use as a fade angle for what will likely prove to be an inscrutable usage breakdown on the team's depth chart. Cam Newton remains the team's top tailback, if you were wondering. 

Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller, Chicago Bears: Jeffery returned to practice to close out the week and is listed as questionable, per Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com. Miller is also questionable, but both players are likely to play. They are Jay Cutler's top targets, albeit versus a capable defensive opponent in the Minnesota Vikings. 

DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: Master Tesfatsion of the Washington Post reports Jackson is probable for this inviting matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have allowed a generous 187 receptions to receivers this season.

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: At this stage, we're more concerned with whether Yeldon plays again at all this season, as this report from Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union suggests is possible. The rookie is doubtful for Sunday's tilt versus the Indianapolis Colts. 

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals: ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Eifert has been ruled out against the San Francisco 49ers. We don't find a suitable replacement for his skill set at the position on the roster, while streaming assets like the Denver Broncos' Vernon Davis can be considered for those who are searching the waiver wire. 

Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts: The team's injury report lists the second-year receiver as questionable, but a lack of practice this week doesn't bode well for his status entering Sunday. Moncrief's investors need to look to the wire and possibly target the San Diego Chargers' Dontrelle Inman as an available option. 

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: We never really questioned Megatron's status for this Monday matchup with the awesomely generous New Orleans Saints secondary. Kyle Meinke of MLive.com reports we can expect Johnson to suit up in the Superdome this week after returning to practice. If you survived Johnson's weak Week 14, redemption is right around the corner with this choice matchup. 

Streaming of Vegas: Let the Desert Help with Identifying Fantasy Defenses

Associated Press

How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us liking favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time last season.

Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept from 2014-15 data: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify a potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for Week 15.

The New York Jets head to Dallas as favorites in a game with a low implied point total, per Odds Shark. The Jets have ceded the fewest rushing yards in the league this season and the lowest completion percentage to opposing signal-callers. The Cowboys' inept offense is susceptible to low-scoring outcomes, with the Jets claiming the ideal combo of positive Vegas and matchup trends. 

The Cincinnati Bengals head to San Francisco to face the 49ers as favorites in a game with a low point total. The 49ers have allowed a league-high 15 sacks over the past three games, and the Bengals are capable of exploiting this choice matchup.

For deep leagues, we find the projected point total for the Atlanta Falcons-Jacksonville Jaguars game at 49 points, above the threshold we normally want to target. But the Jags are favored in this contest, which fell in a top-10 finish nearly 40 percent of the time last season, per Odds Shark. The Jaguars allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards per carry (3.6) this season, and the Falcons' fallible passing game has been struggling of late.