Muhammad Wilkerson's Dominant Season Raises Potential Price Tag in Free Agency

The New York Jets put themselves in a lose-lose situation by neglecting to get defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson signed to a long-term contract this offseason.

The 2015 season is a contract year for the Jets' 2011 first-round pick, which always meant one of three conclusions: Either he would have a down year, which would lower his price tag; he would have a great year, which would force the Jets to pony up and pay him; or he would have a great year, and find another team in free agency.

Tell me, which of those outcomes is favorable? A down year means a potentially great player is underperforming, which isn't a good sign—especially in a contract year.

But with Wilkerson having a great year, the Jets must now decide if they're going to pay him an exorbitant sum to stay with the team that drafted him (which they could have done last year and avoided this mess) or let him walk away to sign that same deal elsewhere.

And if he earns his first trip to the Pro Bowl—which he should—Wilkerson will tack even more zeroes onto the end of his asking price.

He's always been a great player, but that would be the piece de resistance that proves he's getting the national recognition he deserves, putting him in a class similar to Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt among impact players at the 3-4 defensive end position—a rare breed, to say the least.

"I knew he was a great player," head coach Todd Bowles said. "Mo has been having a good year. Like I said, I don't think the season gets counted on about sacks, I mean, sacks help out a lot, but I knew he was a great player. I expected him to play like this. Not knowing him or having coached him, you kind of get a feel as you go along, but we knew Mo was capable of doing these types of things."

That might explain why Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan held onto the cards in the negotiations with Wilkerson. The Jets could still use the franchise tag on Wilkerson to prevent the stud defensive end from hitting the open market. But the franchise tag would cost a gaudy $15.5 million, according to former sports agent Joel Corry of CBS Sports.  

With that said, Wilkerson is making things very interesting with his performance over the course of the 2015 season. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilkerson is the second-most productive pass-rushing 3-4 defensive end in the league (70 total pressures, 38 hurries, 20 hits, 12 sacks)—second only to Watt. 

It's almost as if Wilkerson is Super Mario, and every time he hits the quarterback, gold coins pop out. A fitting analogy, since these are video-game-like numbers being posted by Wilkerson.

In the past, Wilkerson's forte has been setting the edge against the run by commanding double-teams, while his pass-rushing skills have simply been an added bonus but not a focal point. This year, he's taken the next step as a pass-rusher and hasn't given up any ground against the run. Wilkerson's 17.4 grade against the run is the third-highest for any 3-4 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Player	Watt	Wilkerson
Total pressure	69	70
QB Hurries	26	38
QB Hits	30	20
QB Sacks	13	12
Tackles for loss	16	6
Batted passes	5	3

With this level of performance week in and week out, Wilkerson might get close to the contract Watt recently signed. 

Salary-cap expert Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com projects Wilkerson's contract to be in the neighborhood of five years and between $73 and $79 million, on par with the contract signed by Watt (six years, $100 million). But Fitzgerald also predicts the Jets will try to use the franchise tag to hold onto his rights for a trade. 

Whether it's the Jets or some other team, someone's going to pony up for Wilkerson on a long-term deal. And if he keeps playing the way he's been playing this year, that team is going to be very satisfied with its investment. 

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained via team news release.