Week 15 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Play or Bench Advice on Top Fantasy Football Stars

In theory, the NFL's top stars always show up big in important games.

Unfortunately for fantasy football owners, league playoff games in Week 15 don't exactly fall under the umbrella.

It sure didn't last week. A stud like New York Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr. went off for 28 points, sure, but other stars underachieved—like Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman, who fell on his face with just four points.

With how to apply stars more important than ever in elimination games, here's a look at value comparisons and some of the most difficult calls pertaining to top stars.

QB   

Matchup	Verdict
Tom Brady (vs. TEN) vs. Blake Bortles (vs. ATL)	Tom Brady
Cam Newton (at NYG) vs. Drew Brees (vs. DET)	Cam Newton
Carson Palmer (at PHI) vs. Russell Wilson (vs. CLE)	Carson Palmer
Aaron Rodgers (at OAK) vs. Eli Manning (vs. CAR)	Aaron Rodgers
Jameis Winston (at STL) vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick (at DAL)	Ryan Fitzpatrick

Star to Know: Tom Brady, New England Patriots (vs. TEN)

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Now isn't the time of year New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady lets down owners. 

The man has 18 or more points in each of his last three outings. In fact, since a Week 4 bye, Brady has 17 or more points in nine of 10 games

This isn't so much about Brady's incredible floor as much as it is the ceiling this week. Brady gets the Tennessee Titans this week, the team not only allowing the fifth-most points to the position on average, but having coughed up 11 touchdown passes over its last three games.

Expect Brady to top all scorers at his position.

Star to Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. DEN)

Sitting someone such as Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger stinks, but there's something even worse—starting a player of his caliber and getting single-digit production.

That's what Big Ben's future holds this weekend against the Denver Broncos, the team allowing the fewest points to the position.

Big Ben posted a dud last week with just nine points against a strong Cincinnati defense. Now he gets Denver, a team that has allowed 13 or more points in two of its last four, the other two being allowances of eight or fewer points.

Denver has now held seven sets of quarterbacks to single-digit production. Big Ben's good, but it's not a situation to trifle with right now.

RB 

Matchup	Verdict
Devonta Freeman (at JAC) vs. Chris Ivory (at DAL)	Devonta Freeman
Adrian Peterson (vs. CHI) vs. Lamar Miller (at SD)	Adrian Peterson
Doug Martin (at STL) vs. DeAngelo Williams (vs. DEN)	Doug Martin
LeSean McCoy (at WAS) vs. Matt Forte (at MIN)	Matt Forte
Todd Gurley (vs. TB) vs. DeMarco Murray (vs. ARI)	Todd Gurley

Star to Know: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. CHI)

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Fantasy's second-highest scoring back has a chance to take the crown from Freeman this week. 

Call it another upcoming day at the office for Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, who has nine double-digit outings this year and two in his past three games.

Peterson next gets to run roughshod on the Chicago Bears, a defense he hurt back in Week 8 to the tune of 20 carries for 103 yards and 10 points.

Expect to see similar usage this time around. The Bears have allowed a touchdown to backs in each of their past two games, and every backfield has cracked at least 14 points over the unit's last six games. Peterson should be good for that number on his own.

Star to Sit: Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYJ)

Owners cannot afford to get cute during the playoffs. 

Trotting out Dallas Cowboys running back Darren McFadden against the New York Jets certainly falls under the classification.

McFadden's had a solid year since taking over as starter after the Week 6 bye, hitting double digits in five games. For comparison's sake, though, the Jets have allowed just three opponents to reach double digits in that same span.

That's entire backfields, folks, not just a lead back.

In fact, only four entire backfields have powered out of double-digit production against the defense allowing the third-fewest points to the position. Without Tony Romo to deter some of the attention, McFadden's a sitting duck.

WR

Matchup	Verdict
Antonio Brown (vs. DEN) vs. Jarvis Landry (at SD)	Antonio Brown
DeAndre Hopkins (at IND) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (at PHI)	DeAndre Hopkins
Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. CAR) vs. Calvin Johnson (at NO)	Odell Beckham Jr.
Julio Jones (at JAC) vs. Allen Robinson (vs. ATL)	Allen Robinson
Brandon Marshall (at DAL) vs. A.J. Green (at SF)	Brandon Marshall

Star to Know: Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs (at BAL)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

It's been hard to trust Kansas City Chiefs wideout Jeremy Maclin this year considering his four trips to double digits. 

That said, two of those came over the course of his past three games, and he now heads into the top matchup of his season against the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore allows the most points to wideouts this year, having let up a silly 55 last week alone. For those counting, Baltimore has now allowed three sets of opposing wideouts to go for 45 or more points.

This points to a ridiculous ceiling for Maclin, the No. 1 target in an efficient attack. The floor looks good, but the ceiling will win matchups outright.

Star to Sit: Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (vs. CAR)

Look, this won't go over well, but it needs to be said—Beckham is in for quite the dud of a game. 

The Carolina Panthers allow the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers this week. More importantly, Josh Norman—the league's second-ranked corner at Pro Football Focus—will chase Beckham all night.

PFTonNBCSN provided a taste of how the best of the best have fared against Norman this year:

This is the heavyweight wideout-corner battle of the year, and not one fantasy owner will want to be a part of, if at all possible.

Beckham isn't without his duds already this year thanks to single digits in three games. Some owners might not have the insurance to avoid this one, but go forth with the understanding there's a very strong chance Beckham struggles. 

TE

Matchup	Verdict
Rob Gronkowski (vs. TEN) vs. Tyler Eifert* (at SF)	Rob Gronkowski
Greg Olsen* (at NYG) vs. Gary Barnidge (at SEA)	Greg Olsen
Delanie Walker (at NE) vs. Jordan Reed (vs. BUF)	Delanie Walker
Travis Kelce (at BAL) vs. Richard Rodgers (at OAK)	Richard Rodgers
Antonio Gates (vs. MIA) vs. Benjamin Watson (vs. DET)	Benjamin Watson

Star to Know: Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns (at SEA)

David Richard/Associated Press

A matchup against the Seattle Seahawks sounds like doom for any offensive weapon, but it's just not the case for Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge.

If the Seahawks have a weakness, it's defending tight ends. They allow the seventh-most points to the position this year, having allowed seven scores.

Barnidge, on the other hand, quietly ranks second in scoring behind just Rob Gronkowski and rebounded last week with 14 points, giving him eight double-digit outings.

Cleveland figures to pass often in this one while attempting to keep up. Barnidge, as usual, will be the main target.

Star to Sit: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at BAL)

Kansas City's offense runs through Maclin and a few running backs, not tight end Travis Kelce.

While a big name, Kelce has hurt owners often this year, and to date has just four double-digit outings. Now he heads into a nightmare scenario against the Ravens, who surprisingly permit the third-fewest points to the position.

Just two sets of opposing tight ends have managed double-digit production against Baltimore this year. Kelce won't, both because the Ravens do well against the spot and because the Chiefs will be too busy marching up and down the field while exploiting other major weak areas.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of December 17. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.