Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions (4-9) will try to break a two-game skid when they visit the New Orleans Saints (5-8) in the Week 15 Monday night matchup. The Lions are coming off a 21-14 loss to the St. Louis Rams as three-point road favorites, and they have dropped four of the past five meetings with the Saints straight up, going 0-5 against the spread.

Point spread: Saints opened as three-point favorites. The total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.2-24.7 Lions

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit has dropped two in a row SU and ATS by a combined 11 points following a season-high three-game winning streak that seemingly turned the team’s season around. The Lions looked like they were still recovering from their stunning loss to the Green Bay Packers the previous week, when they fell 21-14 to the St. Louis Rams last Sunday as three-point road favorites.

This matchup with New Orleans will be the team’s second consecutive road game, and the last time the Lions played two straight on the road, they upset Green Bay 18-16 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Saints are not nearly as good as the Packers, and they have already lost three times at home, including setbacks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans in games in which they were favored by more than six points.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

While New Orleans has certainly struggled at times in the Superdome, Detroit is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games during the month of December. The Lions did beat Green Bay away from home this year, but they lost their other four road games, going 1-3 ATS with the three noncovers all decided by five points or more.

The Saints have also enjoyed some success when playing on MNF, winning 10 of their past 12 appearances. Earlier in the season they handed the Atlanta Falcons their first loss in prime time, 31-21 as three-point home underdogs on October 15—although that was a Thursday night.

Regardless, Saints fans get up for nationally televised games and provide the team with a true home-field advantage worth more than the typical three points.

Smart pick

The point spread on this game is right where it should be, making it tough to pick a side—especially since New Orleans is just 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite. Instead, take a shot on the over with two high-scoring teams. The over is 21-9 in the past 30 games for the Saints against NFC North opponents and will cash again here.

Betting trends

The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Saints.

The Lions are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on the road in December.

The total has gone under in 13 of the Lions' last 16 games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.