Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots are 24-3 straight up and a moneymaking 17-8-2 against the spread over their last 27 home games, even while often dealing with large lines. On the other end of the scale, the Tennessee Titans are 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS over their last 13 road games. The Titans return to the site of the worst defeat in franchise history when they visit the Patriots Sunday afternoon. 

Point spread: Patriots opened as 12.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-16.5 Patriots

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee had played three close games in a row, won one of them and had a chance to win the other two, but it suffered a letdown last week and lost at the Jets 30-8. Nothing good came out of that game, so the Titans will just have to move on.

Two weeks ago, Tennessee outlasted Jacksonville 42-39; just before that, the Titans gave up a late score and lost to Oakland 24-21. And in Week 11, they led the Jags late into the fourth quarter before giving up the last 10 points of the game to lose 19-13. A few plays here and there, and Tennessee could have won all three of those games.

The Titans will go off as double-digit dogs Sunday, but so far this NFL season, double-digit dogs are 11-6 ATS and have actually won five of those games outright.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England snapped a rare two-game losing streak with a 27-6 victory at Houston Sunday night. The Patriots scored a touchdown on their second possession of the game and led from there on out, holding the Texans out of the end zone all night.

New England outgained Houston 313-189, won time of possession by a 35-25 margin and recorded six sacks, easily covering as a five-point road favorite. With the victory, the Patriots passed Cincinnati and Denver in the AFC standings, retaking the No. 1 seed.

Two weeks ago, New England suffered a 35-28 upset at the hands of Philadelphia, but that game was a fluke, considering three Eagles touchdowns came on defense/special teams. The Patriots actually outgained Philly that day by 179 yards. Just before that, New England lost at AFC West-leading Denver in overtime. And despite the injuries, nobody plays next-man-up better than the Patriots.

Smart pick

New England will probably win this game, but two touchdowns is a ton when it comes to betting the NFL. Take Tennessee, plus the points.

Betting trends

The Titans are 0-5 SU in their last five games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 24-2 SU in their last 26 games at home.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC South.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.