New Mexico Bowl Betting: Arizona vs. New Mexico Odds, Analysis and Pick

Not only is New Mexico 4-0 against the spread when getting a touchdown or more on the betting lines this season, but it won three of those games outright. The Lobos find themselves in that same spot heading into their matchup with border-rival Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque.

New Mexico Bowl point spread: The Wildcats opened as 11.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.8-29.6 Wildcats

Why the Wildcats can cover the spread

Arizona started 5-2 this season, but a three-point loss at home to Washington State began a 1-4 slide, ending in a 52-37 loss at rival Arizona State in the season finale. The Wildcats fell down to the Sun Devils 31-10, rallied to within 38-30 with plenty of time on the clock but gave up a pair of interception returns for scores, killing any chances of a comeback.

Just prior to that, Arizona knocked off Utah in overtime 37-30, winning outright as a six-point dog. And just before that, the Wildcats led USC in Los Angeles into the fourth quarter, eventually losing 38-30 but covering easily at plus-19.

Arizona is 4-2 ATS this season as a favorite and 3-1 ATS when favored by single digits.

Why the Lobos can cover the spread

After winning a total of 11 games in their first three seasons under head coach Bob Davie, the Lobos came up with seven this season, becoming bowl-eligible for the first time in eight seasons. New Mexico started 1-2, with a 34-10 loss at Arizona State, then won five of its next seven, including back-to-back upsets of Utah State (as a 20-point underdog) and Boise State (as a 30-point dog). The Lobos then led Colorado State into the fourth quarter but lost 28-20, then pulled off one more upset, beating Air Force in the season finale 47-35.

The Lobos outrushed the Falcons, who rank second in the country at 322 yards per game on the ground, by 155 yards. So that's four games in a row New Mexico has won the ground battle. Not coincidentally, the Lobos are 3-1 ATS over that span.

Smart pick

Sometimes bowls are won, and bowl spreads covered, by the team that's happiest to be there. And in this case, that would be New Mexico. Plus, the Lobos are getting points playing on their home field. Take New Mexico.

Betting trends

New Mexico is 0-6 SU in its last six games against the Pac-12.

New Mexico is 1-6 SU in its last seven bowl games.

Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.

The total has gone over in six of the last seven New Mexico Bowls.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.