New Orleans Bowl Betting: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech Odds, Pick

Arkansas State finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak, going 6-1 against the spread over its last seven outings. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, is 7-2 straight up over its last nine games but only 4-5 ATS, as it's contended with some tough spreads. In a renewal of an old Big West conference rivalry, the Red Wolves tangle with the Bulldogs in the New Orleans Bowl.

New Orleans Bowl point spread: Red Wolves opened as one-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.4-34.0 Red Wolves

Why the Red Wolves can cover the spread

ASU opened this season 1-3, with losses to USC, Missouri and Toledo, then swept through its Sun Belt slate, including a 40-27 upset of Appalachian State on the road, to earn its fourth conference title in the last five seasons. The Red Wolves finished with a flourish, hitting the 50-point mark each of their last three times out, capping things off with a 55-17 romp over Texas State in the season finale.

Arkansas State outgained the Bobcats by 144 yards and outrushed them by 179 yards. It has now outgained its last three opponents by an average of 170 yards per game.

On the season, the Red Wolves are outrushing foes by 90 yards per game, and that's usually a good way to win games and cover spreads.

Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

Tech started this season 1-2, with close losses at Western Kentucky and at Kansas State, and later lost at Mississippi State. But the Bulldogs then won four in a row, setting up a division championship game in the C-USA West against Southern Miss. Unfortunately, Louisiana Tech let a close game get away in a 58-24 defeat.

The Bulldogs only trailed the Golden Eagles 24-17 late in the third quarter, but several big plays by Southern Miss resulted in a slightly misleading final score.

On the season, Louisiana Tech ranks 27th in the country in total offense, averaging 37 points per game, led by former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel, who's accounted for almost 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns. Also, the Bulldogs defense ranks 11th against the run, allowing just 116 yards per game on the ground. And a good, stiff run defense might come in handy against Arkansas State.

Smart pick

ASU has outgained each of its last five opponents; Louisiana Tech has been outgained and outplayed its last two times out. The smart money here sides with the Wolves.

Betting trends

Louisiana Tech is 9-0 SU in its last nine games against the Sun Belt.

The total has gone over in Arkansas State's last eight games.

Louisiana Tech is 3-0 ATS in its last three bowl games.

The underdog is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven New Orleans Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.