TaxSlayer Bowl Betting: Georgia vs. Penn State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Penn State and Georgia both own rich bowl histories, but neither has done too hot lately in the postseason; both the Nittany Lions and Bulldogs are just 2-3 both straight up and against the spread over their last five bowl appearances. In its first game without now-departed head coach Mark Richt, Georgia takes on Penn State in the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida.

TaxSlayer Bowl point spread: Bulldogs opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-25.8 Bulldogs

Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

The 'Dawgs started this season 4-0, lost three of their next four games to fall from contention in the SEC East, but then finished with four wins in a row, with three covers along the way, after edging rival Georgia Tech in the season finale 13-7.

The Bulldogs outgained the Yellow Jackets 402-276 and held them out of the end zone until just three minutes remained in the game.

For the season, Georgia only ranks 75th in the country in total offense but 36th in rushing, averaging 194 yards per game, and eighth in total defense, holding foes to just 298 yards per game. Over the last four games, that UGA defense has allowed a total of just 40 points.

The Bulldogs lost running back Nick Chubb to an injury back in October, but sophomore Sony Michel has stepped in and produced three 100-yard rushing efforts in the last four games.

Why the Nittany Lions can cover the spread

Penn State started 5-1 this season and reached 7-2, including 3-1 in Big Ten play, but it lost its last three games, including a 55-16 decision at Michigan State in the season finale. The Lions were right in that game well into the second quarter, and driving to make it closer, but a fumble near the Michigan State red zone went the other way 77 yards for a Spartans score, killing Penn State's chances for an upset.

Just before that the Lions lost a tough game to Michigan, and just before that they lost to Northwestern on a field goal with 10 seconds left. Penn State can struggle offensively, but its defense ranks 14th in the nation, allowing just 324 yards per game. And Georgia is not exactly an offensive powerhouse.

Smart pick

The team that wins the ground game in this battle, and makes fewer mistakes, will probably win and cover, and that team is most likely to be Georgia.

Betting trends

Georgia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games in January.

The total has gone under in nine of Penn State's last 10 games against the SEC.

Georgia is 13-5 SU in its last 18 bowl games.

The favorite is 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS in the last 16 TaxSlayer Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.