Fantasy Football Week 14: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 14 of the fantasy football season is finally here. The playoffs have begun, and this article will look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential and advance to Round 2.

We will also provide player projections for the week’s top five options at each position in this article.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has been hot in recent weeks, and his current streak is expected to spill over into Week 14. He’s the No. 2 quarterback behind Carolina Panthers stud Cam Newton.

At running back, Buffalo Bills' top dog LeSean McCoy ranks No. 1 this week, as he’s set to face his former team, the Philadelphia Eagles. He should have a big week—and not just because this is a “revenge game.”

Spectacular wideout Odell Beckham Jr. has risen to the top spot in Week 14, and fellow second-year star Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars finds himself ranked in the top five this week as well.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 14.

Quarterbacks: Russell Wilson Back Among the Elite

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Russell Wilson

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is playing at a level one step above everyone else right now, and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady continues to put up big numbers despite the fact the Patriots have dropped two in a row.

Wedged in between Newton and Brady is Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who has made his presence felt in fantasy in recent weeks.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was No. 4 on the list, but he played on Thursday Night Football and was excluded.

The Projections

1. Cam Newton (vs. ATL): 26-of-34, 271 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 61 rushing yards—26.9 fantasy points
2. Russell Wilson (at BAL): 17-of-25, 244 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 42 rushing yards—24.0 fantasy points
3. Tom Brady (at HOU): 32-of-46, 343 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—23.7 fantasy points
4. Ben Roethlisberger (at CIN): 28-of-39, 332 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—23.3 fantasy points
5. Aaron Rodgers (vs. DAL): 24-of-32, 272 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—22.9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

As noted above, you should lean on Wilson this week. He’s playing against the Baltimore Ravens, who have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com. The Ravens have allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season and have only intercepted four passes.

Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a solid streaming quarterback option in Week 14. He faces the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed 35 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions this season. The Saints have also allowed quarterbacks to rush for two scores against them this year. New Orleans has given up an average of four passing touchdowns per game over their past six outings.

It’s going to be hard to trust San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers this week. He has a tough matchup against the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, according to ESPN.com. When Rivers faced the Chiefs in Week 11, he scored just five fantasy points and didn’t record a touchdown.

What the Metrics Say

According to data from Pro Football Focus, Wilson has averaged 0.97 fantasy points per dropback over the past three weeks. No other quarterback is averaging more than 0.77 fantasy points per dropback in that span (Newton is second with 0.77).

From Weeks 1-9, when Brady’s offense was at full strength, he was accurate on 53.6 percent of his deep passes (20-plus yards down the field), third-highest in the league. From Weeks 10-13, his deep-ball accuracy dropped to 40.7, 14th in the league.

Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins should be using play action more often. His average yards per attempt on play-action passes is 10.9, compared to 6.3 on non-play-action attempts.

Running Backs: LeSean McCoy Atop the RB Rankings in Week 14

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy gets his “revenge game” against Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles this week. That may give him a little extra motivation, but the real reason he’s ranked No. 1 this week is because the matchup is juicy. We have more on him below.

Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings was ranked No. 4, but he played on Thursday Night Football and was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. LeSean McCoy (at PHI): 22 carries, 135 yards, 1 touchdown; 5 receptions, 59 yards—31.4 fantasy points
2. Doug Martin (vs. NO): 24 carries, 122 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 25 yards—20.7 fantasy points
3. Thomas Rawls (at BAL): 20 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 32 yards—20.2 fantasy points
4. DeAngelo Williams (at CIN): 24 carries, 112 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 27 yards—19.9 fantasy points
5. Jonathan Stewart (vs. ATL): 21 carries, 88 yards 1 touchdown; 2 receptions, 24 yards—17.2 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Philadelphia Eagles have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Opposing running backs have scored an average of more than 30 fantasy points per game against the Eagles over the past three games. That’s why McCoy sits atop the rankings this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is ranked No. 2 because he plays the New Orleans Saints, who have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, per ESPN.com. Running backs are averaging just shy of 30 points per game against the Saints over their past three outings.

Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman is not ranked in the top five this week, and while he hasn’t been as hot as he was midseason, you shouldn’t shy away from him this week. His matchup against the Carolina Panthers may seem scary, but the Panthers are actually only slightly above average when it comes to slowing fantasy running backs. The Panthers defense is a much more dominant unit against the pass.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Seattle Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls has 14 carries this season that have gone for 15-plus yards, tied for third-most in the league. And the two players ahead of him in this department—Martin (15) and Peterson (15)—have 86 and 104 more attempts than Rawls this season, respectively.

If the Eagles are going to reduce DeMarco Murray’s carries, that would be great news for owners of Ryan Mathews. He is averaging 0.62 fantasy points per opportunity this season, third-most among running backs. Murray has scored exactly half as many fantasy points per opportunity (0.31).

Mathews is also averaging a league-best 0.57 fantasy points per snap. No other running back in the league is averaging more than 0.45 points per snap.

Wide Receivers: Allen Robinson Among the Elite This Week

James Kenney/Associated Press

Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson is ranked No. 4 this week, and it’s easy to understand why: He caught 10 passes for 153 yards and scored three times last week in a dominant performance. He belongs in the conversation with the best at this point.

The Projections

1. Odell Beckham Jr. (at MIA): 8 receptions, 114 yards, 2 touchdowns—23.4 fantasy points
2. Antonio Brown (at CIN): 9 receptions, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns—23.2 fantasy points
3. DeAndre Hopkins (vs. NE): 11 receptions, 115 yards, 1 touchdown—17.5 fantasy points
4. Allen Robinson (vs. IND): 8 receptions, 102 yards, 1 touchdown—16.2 fantasy points
5. A.J. Green (vs. PIT): 6 receptions, 98 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points 

Stats to Know

In point-per-reception formats, Robinson has at least 10 fantasy points in every game this season save for Week 1. It doesn’t get any more consistent than that.

Cleveland Browns wideout Travis Benjamin gets a boost now that Johnny Manziel is starting again. Manziel has attempted at least 10 passes in four games this season, and in those games, Benjamin recorded an average of 85 yards per game with three total scores. In the other eight games he’s played this season (without Manziel starting), Benjamin has averaged 61 yards per game with two total scores.

Seattle Seahawks wideout Doug Baldwin has been hot recently, and while it’s unlikely he’ll sustain his current pace, he could be in for another strong outing in Week 14. He’ll play against the Baltimore Ravens, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts so far this season, according to ESPN.com.

What the Metrics Say

Robinson can rack up the points in a hurry because he’s one of the best in the league when it comes to deep passes. According to Pro Football Focus, he leads the league in deep targets (39), deep receptions (16) and yards gained on deep passes (537). A deep pass is considered one that travels at least 20 yards in the air.

Atlanta Falcons wideout and fantasy stud Julio Jones belongs in fantasy lineups in Week 14—you should always start your A-listers—but the points won’t come easy. He figures to be shadowed by Carolina Panthers cornerback Josh Norman, who has allowed just one touchdown all season long.

Green Bay Packers wideout Randall Cobb has struggled lately. Over the first six games of the season, he averaged more than five yards after the catch in every single game. Over his next six outings, he has averaged more than five yards after the catch in just two games.

Tight Ends: Austin Seferian-Jenkins Worth a Look for the Needy

Scott Audette/Associated Press

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

The top five tight ends heading into Week 14 are the exact same top five that we had last week—in almost the same order. Jordan Reed of the Washington Redskins and Gary Barnidge of the Cleveland Browns simply swapped positions this week.

The Projections

1. Greg Olsen (vs. SD): 8 receptions, 105 yards, 1 touchdown—16.5 fantasy points
2. Travis Kelce (vs. OAK): 4 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown—14.2 fantasy points
3. Delanie Walker (at NYJ): 9 receptions, 81 yards, 1 touchdown—14.1 fantasy points
4. Jordan Reed (at CHI): 6 receptions, 73 yards, 1 touchdown—13.3 fantasy points
5. Gary Barnidge (vs. SF): 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown—12.4 fantasy points

Stats to Know 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins is an interesting tight end flier this week. He has missed the majority of the season due to injury, but he returned in Week 13 on a limited basis and caught three passes for 31 yards. His role will likely increase in Week 14, and a breakout game could be in the cards. That’s because Bucs will take on the New Orleans Saints, who have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season, per ESPN.com. If you’re one of the many owners who are making due without Rob Gronkowski or Martellus Bennett, then Seferian-Jenkins is worth a look.

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten has a great chance to snag a touchdown this week. He’ll play the Green Bay Packers, who have given up one receiving touchdown to a tight end in five straight games and in six of their past seven.

San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has his work cut out for him in Week 14. He’ll square off against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have given up the fewest fantasy points to fantasy tight ends so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Gates caught just one pass for six yards when he played the Chiefs in Week 11.

What the Metrics Say

Another reason to like Witten’s chances of scoring this week? He’s the only tight end with at least 30 targets who has not dropped a pass so far this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is also a deep threat—sort of. He is targeted 20-plus yards down the field on an impressive 15.8 percent of his pass routes. Additionally, no other tight end in the league has more deep targets than Olsen.

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas is climbing the fantasy rankings—and for good reason. He ranks eighth among tight ends this year with 0.15 fantasy points per snap. 

Kickers: Josh Brown Slips into Top 5

Gary Hershorn/Associated Press

Josh Brown

Arizona Cardinals kicker Chandler Catanzaro was ranked No. 4, but he played on Thursday Night Football and was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (at HOU): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (at BAL): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
3. Cairo Santos (vs. SD): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Graham Gano (vs. ATL): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Josh Brown (at MIA): 2/2 FGs, 2/2 XPs—8 fantasy points

Stats to Know 

New York Giants kicker Josh Brown will play against the Miami Dolphins in Week 14. They have been slightly above average at stopping fantasy kickers this season, per ESPN.com, but the fact they gave up so many touchdowns is one of the primary reasons. Kickers recorded a total of 18 extra points against Miami from Weeks 8-12 (five games), which limited their field-goal opportunities; kickers attempted just seven total field goals in that span. However, last week the Miami defense was stronger in the red zone, which afforded Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker the chance to boot three field goals.

Speaking of the Ravens, they are the third-worst team at slowing fantasy kickers this season, according to ESPN.com. That means you can expect a big game from Seattle Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka.

Kickers have missed either one field goal or one extra point against every team this season—save for one. The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t seen an opposing kicker miss anything against them this season, according to ESPN.com’s data. Up next is Buffalo Bills kicker Dan Carpenter, who has missed two field goals in the past three weeks. This might be the week the Eagles finally catch a break.

Defense and Special Teams: Seattle Seahawks D/ST Set for Dominant Performance

John Froschauer/Associated Press

This week, it’s the Seattle Seahawks D/ST and then everyone else.

The Green Bay Packers are an interesting inclusion in the top five, but their matchup against the anemic Dallas Cowboys warrants the lofty spot.

The Arizona Cardinals D/ST was ranked No. 5 heading into the week but played on Thursday Night Football and was excluded.

The Projections 

1. Seattle Seahawks (at BAL): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 sacks
2. Denver Broncos (vs. OAK): 21 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
3. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. SD): 17 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
4. Carolina Panthers (vs. ATL): 24 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
5. Green Bay Packers (vs. DAL): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Stats to Know

Michael David Smith, managing editor at Pro Football Talk, unearthed this stat: “Matt Schaub has thrown a pick-six in six of his last nine starts.” The Seattle defense could have a massive Week 14 against Baltimore and Schaub (if he plays). If you own the Seahawks, you were already starting them anyway. If you play DFS, it could be worth ponying up the cash to snag them.

The San Francisco 49ers D/ST could be a sneaky stream option this week. The 49ers will play the Cleveland Browns, who have given up at least 15 fantasy points to opposing D/STs in five of their past seven games. The Browns have given up an average of 10-plus fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs this year, tops in the league by a wide margin. The 49ers D/ST ranks dead last in total points scored this season—so this is not a no-brainer—but the cheap upside here is undeniable.

The Kansas City Chiefs D/ST has been on a roll. The Chiefs will face the San Diego Chargers in Week 14, who have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. The Chiefs D/ST scored 19 points when facing the Chargers in Week 11, and the Chargers gave up 22 points to the Denver D/ST just last week. 

The rankings for each position are from the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow are via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow are via Pro Football Focus.