San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Kansas City owns a six-game winning streak, both straight up and against the spread. San Diego, on the other hand, is fading, losing seven of its last eight games SU, going just 3-7 ATS over its last 10. Two teams headed in different directions collide when the Chiefs host the Chargers Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.0-12.5 Chiefs

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego stopped a six-game losing streak a couple weeks ago with a win at Jacksonville but came home and lost to Denver last week 17-3. The Chargers fell down 17-0 in the second quarter, then blanked the Broncos from there. Unfortunately, the San Diego offense produced just three points on the day on four incursions inside Denver territory.

San Diego only came up with 272 yards of offense, but the defense almost kept the Chargers in the game, allowing just 293 yards of Broncos offense and just one offensive touchdown. If the two Chargers units could just start clicking on the same days, they might start winning some games again.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the AFC at the moment, following last week's 34-20 victory at Oakland. Kansas City trailed the Raiders at the half 14-7, then drove the second-half kickoff 80 yards to a game-tying touchdown. Later, down 20-14, the Chiefs defense made the first of several big plays, pressuring Oakland quarterback Derek Carr into an interception that set up a touchdown that tied the game at 20-20.

Another KC pick set up another short field, and the Chiefs cashed in to take a 27-20 lead. They then iced the victory on Tyvon Branch's 38-yard interception return for a score with three minutes to go. Kansas City got outrushed and outgained by the Raiders, but that's the first time that had happened since the loss at Green Bay back in Week 3.

At 7-5, the Chiefs are tied with the Jets and Steelers atop the AFC wild-card race.

Smart pick

Kansas City is charging toward a playoff berth, while the Chargers seem headed to Los Angeles. The spread on this game is probably inflated by a field goal or so, but the smart choice here is still the Chiefs.

Betting trends

The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games.

The Chargers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against their division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.