Daily Fantasy Football December 9: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

If this is how the 2015 daily fantasy football season rumbles to a close, we’re going to need a roll cage.

DraftKings’ Adam Levitan revealed his Week 13 cash-game lineup scored 172.84 points yet won just 48.8 percent of head-to-head contests. By comparison he won 45 percent of cash games in Week 2 with just 125.26 points.

Owners were able to field players from all 32 rosters in a single contest for the first time since September, resulting in more varied lineups and high scores. Mild weather also played a positive role, with downright balmy conditions expected to continue for most of the country through December, according to Weather.com’s Linda Lam.   

Weather.com

Keep in mind some of the rising and falling stocks listed below as another field day approaches.

Stock Up 

Scott Chandler, TE, New England Patriots ($3,800)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Tom Brady ($7,800) threw at Chandler seven times for four receptions, 61 yards and a touchdown in his Week 13 start over the sidelined Rob Gronkowski ($7,700). The Buffalo Bills castoff could fill in for Gronk again in Week 14, skyrocketing his salary to a league-leading $1,300.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Gronkowski is “unlikely” to suit up against the Houston Texans (h/t: Rotoworld’s Evan Silva on Twitter):

"

On NFL Live, Schefter said based on the "conversations I've had," Rob Gronkowski is "unlikely" to play against #Texans in Week 14.

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 7, 2015"

Chandler is no Gronk—his seven targets ranked fifth on the team against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday—and Houston is no pushover against tight ends. It's ranked eighth in points against (11.0 per game).

But Chandler's opportunities and bargain price will find him even higher on the chalkboard than he was in Week 13—tied for fifth-highest owned at 30.60 percent, according to DK’s Steve Buchanan. Trust Chandler in cash and GPP as long as Gronkowski is out.  

Shaun Draughn, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($4,800)

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Draughn posted the second-highest salary spike of the week ($800) behind only David Johnson’s $900 raise to $4,300. But Draughn gets the nod in this feature because Johnson plays on Thursday night.

It’s best to avoid players in Thursday night games as a general rule, given the high volatility in short weeks.

There’s a reason Draughn washed out of Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, San Diego and Cleveland; he posted a plodding 3.1 yards per carry over his past three starts, tied for last among the 13 halfbacks taking at least 75 percent of their teams’ snaps.

But the five-year journeyman enjoys high-volume opportunity (89.8 percent of snaps over the last three weeks) coupled with a cheap price against a weak opponent—Cleveland ranks 27th in points allowed to running backs.

He’s top-tier among pass-catching running backs since Week 11:

-----------------	Tgts	Recp	Yds	TDs
Javorius Allen	23	21	174	2
Shaun Draughn	22	18	125	0
Theo Riddick	16	15	161	1
Bilal Powell	23	15	165	1
James White	14	14	152	2

Incidentally, White’s stock also rose $800 from last week, as covered by B/R’s Chris Roling.            

Draughn’s uniquely familiar with the Browns defense, having been a member of the team until October 20. Only LeSean McCoy ($6,100) makes a better revenge play this week.

Plug in Draughn as a contrarian sleeper in GPPs.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($6,300)

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings took notice when Wilson thrashed the Minnesota Vikings, bumping the quarterback up $700 from his season-low Week 13 salary.

"

Have a Day, @DangeRussWilson! #SEAvsMIN pic.twitter.com/1Hee6RvH9d

— NFL (@NFL) December 6, 2015"

Wilson caught fire against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13, averaging over one point per dropback (1.10) in the last two weeks. He leads the league with an 80.5 completion percentage over the past five weeks—excluding drops and throwaways.

Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom took notice as well, as reported by Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports.

"

This is the best football of his life. Quarterbacks come into their own. This is his growing point. This is his moving up into that elite tier.

There’s no ceiling for his game right now. He’s blowing the ceiling off the building right now. He’s playing phenomenal. He’s doing it with his legs. He’s doing it with his arm. He’s making smart decisions. He’s getting out of the pocket. He’s eliminating negative plays. That’s what you need quarterbacks to do.

"

Wilson boasts a league-best 148.2 passer rating since Week 11, including 11 touchdowns and zero picks. He’ll be among the highest-owned players of Week 14 facing the 23rd-ranked Baltimore Ravens defense in QB points allowed.

Stock Down 

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers ($6,000)

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Rivers joins fellow QBs Derek Carr ($6,200) and Matt Ryan ($6,700) in a $600 slide in Week 14. Rivers headlines this dubious trio because he’s the least likely to recover in December.

Wide receivers Stevie Johnson ($4,600) and Dontrelle Inman ($3,200) both left the field injured on Sunday, prompting San Diego to work out Austin Pettis and sign Vincent Brown, as tweeted by Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post:

"

Chargers signed Vincent Brown, also worked out Austin Pettis

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 9, 2015"

With Keenan Allen on injured reserve and Malcom Floyd ($3,600) playing through a torn labrum, the 2015 Chargers wide receivers are dropping like the 2014 Chargers running backs.

Rivers runs the 29th-rated offense in the league behind the worst pass-blocking offensive line. Kansas City edge-rushers Justin Houston (2nd) and Tamba Hali (4th) form the NFL’s fiercest pass-rushing tandem.

Yeah, Rivers is not bouncing back against this week.

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($6,800)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Bryant isn’t the type to swallow his displeasure, in case you haven’t noticed:

"

This may surprise you but Dez Bryant is screaming about something on the football field

— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 8, 2015"

But all is forgiven when he routinely snags highlight-worthy catches:

"

Dez Bryant goes full extension, lays out and makes the catch. #DALvsWAS https://t.co/Xu4a10znKj

— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2015"

The source of Bryant’s most recent outburst and the reason he had to lay out for a spectacular grab are one and the same: Matt Cassel ($5,100). Tony Romo’s replacement is also the culprit behind Bryant’s $700 dive this week.

Bryant will always be an elite talent, but he cannot be trusted in DFS with a subpar QB—even at a WR2 discount.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets ($5,000)

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Ivory tied Jeremy Langford ($4,400) for the deepest pitfall of the week, losing $900 respectively. He’s scored just three times in the last six games, fumbling thrice as well. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry during that stretch, tied for 43rd-lowest out of 57 qualifying RBs.

Although Ivory started Week 13, Bilal Powell ($3,500) saw more snaps: 45 to 30. This shift in workload has as much to do with the Jets game plan as it does Ivory’s ineffectiveness.

New York ranks 19th in passing plays at 56.73 percent, according to Sporting Charts. It’s still a run-oriented team by modern standards, but Powell’s superior receiving skills will keep Ivory sidelined on passing situations:

"

Career-high 91 rec. yds for @bilalpowell29 Including this 25-yd beauty of a TD HIGHLIGHTS- https://t.co/IqR60nBsLj https://t.co/46qDGyWJF0

— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 7, 2015"

With limited receiving opportunities, Ivory’s ceiling is too low to consider rostering him as long as Powell is taking up so much playing time.  

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by Odds Shark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of RotoGuru, unless otherwise noted.

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