Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (6-5) hope to get back on track and break a four-game losing streak when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) in an NFC South matchup Sunday. The Falcons have disappointed their backers after an impressive 5-0 start, failing to cover the spread in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have gone just 2-12 straight up and 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 home games.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-18.6 Buccaneers

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

It may seem like a distant memory right now, but Atlanta was considered one of the top teams in the NFL through the first month of the season and has the talent to return to that point. There was reportedly a players-only meeting held Tuesday in hopes of getting back on track, as the Falcons still possess a playoff-caliber roster capable of making a run in the postseason if they do in fact turn things around.

Running back Devonta Freeman was the team’s MVP during the unbeaten start, and he is hoping to be back in the lineup after sitting out last week’s 20-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings due to a concussion. Freeman left the previous game versus the Indianapolis Colts early and may have been the difference in each of the past two losses. Atlanta could not have chosen a better opponent to try to bust its slump against either, winning 10 of the past 14 meetings with Tampa Bay.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

While the Bucs have struggled at home over the previous couple of seasons, they have finally started to turn things around under head coach Lovie Smith and could be in the mix for a wild-card spot if they can get hot down the stretch. This is a must-win game for them, though, following a 25-12 loss to the Colts as three-point road underdogs last week. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after failing to cover their previous game.

Despite the loss at Indy, Tampa Bay is still playing much better than the Falcons both offensively and defensively. The team was an underdog in six straight games and managed to go 3-3 straight up and 4-2 ATS during that stretch, earning favorite status this week. The last time the Bucs were favored, they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 38-31 as one-point home chalk in Week 5, building some confidence for their current run.

Smart pick

The Falcons have better players, and what they need to realize is that should obviously translate to being a better team. The good thing is it’s not too late to start winning again, and maybe it will take being an underdog against a divisional opponent they have dominated to wake them up. Atlanta is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games as a dog and will go into Tampa and extend that to 5-0 with a small upset victory on the road.

Betting trends

The Falcons are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games against the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss.

The Buccaneers are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds-tracker app.