Daily Fantasy Football December 2: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Penny stocks soar while blue chips teeter as the daily fantasy football season powers into Week 13.

Both high-value and high-salary players are regressing to the mean as prices adjust to performance and matchups. Plus, rosters will be as varied as possible with all 32 teams available in a single, daily fantasy football contest for the first time in months on DraftKings.

This edition of the DFS stock watch will take note of rising and falling salary trends to help owners best diversify portfolios, rake in the cash and party like it's your birthday.

Stock Up 

Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900)

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Chiefs made Ware their third starting running back this season after Charcandrick West ($5,200) was deactivated nursing a hamstring injury suffered in Week 12. Ware rushed 30 times for 210 yards and three touchdowns in two weeks.

"

@spenceware11 filled in for @Charcandrick26 with 2 TDs. And this 52-yard run: https://t.co/4FRM2Bb2J6 #KCvsSD pic.twitter.com/h7Wo4CEGwv

— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2015"

His 7.0 yards per carry ranks second in that time frame among running backs seeing at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps. It’s no surprise the unheralded backup boasts DraftKings’ highest-rising salary of the week, up $1,100.

If West returns from injury this week, it could eat into Ware’s upside. But Ware is better suited to be Kansas City’s lead back going forward, as explained by Football Guys’ Matt Waldman in his updated 2013 draft profile of the LSU product.

Ware remains a worthwhile value in Week 13 against the Raiders, in spite of his salary spike.  

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets ($6,300)

Elsa/Getty Images

New York’s WR2 quietly rose to the ranks of a solid fantasy WR2 with eight touchdown receptions on the season, tied for second among wide receivers. Decker’s salary hopped up $500 as a result, but he’s still a great value with just the 20th-highest salary among wideouts.

No pass-catcher is more targeted in the red zone than Decker, not even Rob Gronkowski ($7,800). He’s tied for the league lead with 17 targets, catching nine while converting seven into scores.

Decker owns a league-leading 33.3 percent red-zone target share on the Jets offense, a considerable feat playing alongside the 6’4” Brandon Marshall ($7,100).     

He’s the most consistent receiver in the league, matching or exceeding his expected point total in 78 percent of his last 14 games. Decker averages 16.8 points per game, bottoming out at 11.7 in Week 1.

Reliable outcomes coupled with such a reasonable salary means Decker should find his way into the majority of cash-game lineups.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers ($7,400)

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Newton followed Week 11’s passing showcase with a quiet Thanksgiving Day performance, but he still jumped $400 for Week 13. He’s now the second-most expensive QB on the board, between Aaron Rodgers ($7,200) and Tom Brady ($8,000).

Newton’s high floor is supported by his legs, leading all quarterbacks with 427 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He’s been the most productive QB of late, ranking first in fantasy points over the past four weeks thanks to 12 total touchdowns to just one interception.

Only Russell Wilson ($5,600) owns a higher passer rating in that span, 123.2 to 109.7.

Home and away matchups against the improving Atlanta Falcons defense in Weeks 14 and 16 could put a damper on Newton’s ceiling, but for now, he provides a steady choice among the more volatile options at top-QB prices.

Stock Down 

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($8,800)

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Odell Beckham Jr ($8,900, up $200) was the only member of the elite-wide-receiver tier to finish in the top 40 in DK scoring for Week 12. Hiccups from Julio Jones ($9,000, down $400), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800, down $300) and Antonio Brown ($8,600, down $100) resulted in slight salary dips this week.

Hopkins and Brown’s Week 12 performances were particularly frustrating because their respective offenses still went off. The trio killed fantasy owners who could actually stock more than one in a lineup given the tremendous value at running back.

Do I sound bitter?

All four of these players still deserve their luxurious price tags and should bounce back from any single down performance. Just keep the instability in mind when creating cash-game rosters—especially with Hopkins, who’s failed to score double his salary three times this season.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago Bears ($3,600)

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Zach Miller ($3,100) came out of nowhere to eclipse Bennett on the Bears’ tight end pecking order over the past three weeks. Miller leads all tight ends not named Tyler Eifert ($5,800, six TDs) with four touchdowns since Week 9.

Chicago deactivated Bennett on Thanksgiving Day due to a rib injury, but he appears to be on track to return in Week 13, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Dickerson.

Bennett’s salary dropped $600 over the past two weeks, $1,300 since Miller emerged as a legitimate secondary option in the Bears’ offense. This is indicative of his fall to TE2, no longer a reliable every-week option while losing the end zone targets he used to monopolize.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders ($4,800)

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Murray’s salary flopped $600 this week, down $1,500 overall from his Week 5 high point.

Oakland hosts Kansas City on Sunday, the exact same scenario in which the third-year pro out of Central Florida broke out in his rookie season. Jerry McDonald of InsideBayArea reported Murray knows prior performances do not guarantee future results.

"I'm not really thinking about that. It's a whole new year, and last year has nothing to do with what's going to go on Sunday."  

The Raiders are 2.5-point underdogs with a Vegas-implied score of just 21; never a good sign for a running back. Plus the Chiefs rank first in points below salary-based expectation to RBs, according to Adam Levitan of Fantasy Labs.

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The Chiefs have the best Opponent Plus/Minus versus RBs, face Latavius Murray in Week 13. https://t.co/3S4QAfQuJe pic.twitter.com/4yNFlZVomm

— Fantasy Labs NFL (@FantasyLabsNFL) December 1, 2015"

Follow the mound of evidence and fade Murray this week.

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by OddsShark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of RotoGuru, unless otherwise noted.

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