Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Southern Miss, playing under the radar this season, emerged as the best bet in college football, going 10-2 against the spread. The Golden Eagles, who won a total of four games over the previous three seasons, look to complete a remarkable turnaround when they take on Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship Game on the Hilltoppers' home field in Bowling Green on Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Hilltoppers opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.2-43.2 Golden Eagles

Why the Southern Miss Golden Eagles can cover the spread

After going 4-32 over the last three seasons, the Eagles pulled off a nice surprise and won the C-USA West this season. Southern Miss started 3-3, with losses to Mississippi State and Nebraska, but has since won its last six games, including a 58-24 upset blowout at Louisiana Tech last week for the division title. The Eagles flew out to a 24-3 lead, let the Bulldogs pull to within 24-17 and then scored 27 straight points to put the game away.

For the day, Southern Miss piled up 555 yards of offense. Quarterback Nick Mullens threw for 386 yards and three touchdowns, and running back Ito Smith ran for 169 yards and scored three times. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense forced seven Tech turnovers.

Southern Miss has now scored 179 points over its last three games, going 3-0 ATS in the process.

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers can cover the spread

WKU carries a four-game winning streak into this conference title game after completing a perfect C-USA season with a 49-28 victory over Marshall last week, covering 12 points. The Hilltoppers grabbed an early 21-0 lead and cruised from there, later leading by 28, picking up some easy cash.

Western Kentucky outgained the Herd 546-273. Quarterback Brandon Doughty threw for 370 yards and five touchdowns, and running back Anthony Wales ran for 131 yards, his fourth straight 100-yard effort. Meanwhile, the defense held Marshall to just 31 yards on the ground.

The 'Toppers have now tallied 202 points over their last four games, going 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in the process.

Smart pick

By the numbers, Southern Miss owns short edges on offense, in the running game and on defense. And while numbers don't always tell the whole story, it's hard not to like the dog and the points in this spot.

Betting trends

• Western Kentucky is 11-0 straight up in its last 11 games against its conference.
• The total has gone over in six of Western Kentucky's last seven games.
• Southern Miss is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.