Temple Owls vs. Houston Cougars Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Houston is 2-0 against new conference rival Temple over the last two seasons, covering the spread both meetings as well. The Cougars hope to make it three in a row over the Owls and win a conference title in the process when the teams meet in the AAC Championship Game Saturday afternoon on Houston's home field at TDECU Stadium.

Point spread: The Cougars opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.3-29.1 Cougars

Why the Temple Owls can cover the spread

Temple stumbled a few weeks ago in a loss at South Florida but finished the regular season with consecutive victories over Memphis and Connecticut to win the AAC East. Two weeks ago, as three-point home dogs, the Owls pounded the Tigers 31-12, outgaining Memphis by 229 yards. Last week, Temple outgained the Huskies by 183 yards on its way to a 27-3 victory, covering 13 points.

The Owls led UConn 10-0 late into the third quarter, then scored three touchdowns over a 13-minute span to put the game away. On the day, Temple outrushed the Huskies 161-9 and won time of possession by over 13 minutes.

On the season, the Owls are averaging 32 points per game, while their defense ranks 17th in the country overall, 11th against the run and 16th in scoring, allowing just under 19 points per game. Perhaps that's why Temple is 9-3 against the spread this season.

Why the Houston Cougars can cover the spread

Houston started this season 10-0. It suffered an upset at Connecticut a couple of weeks ago but bounced back to beat Navy last week 52-31. That game was tied at 14-14 midway through the second quarter, but the Cougars used a 24-3 run to pull away on their way to the outright victory and the AAC West title.

For the day, Houston racked up 555 yards of offense, as quarterback Greg Ward Jr. threw for 308 yards and three touchdowns, and the team converted 16 of 19 third downs into first downs. Meanwhile, the Cougars defense held a Midshipmen rushing attack that was averaging almost 350 yards per game to just 147.

On the season, Houston ranks 14th in the country in rushing at 241 yards per game and 12th against the run, holding foes to 118 yards per game. And outrushing opponents by 120 yards is usually a good way to win a game and cover a spread.

Smart pick

Injuries are taking a toll on Houston, especially along the offensive line; the Cougars have actually been outgained in two of their last four games and outrushed in two of their last three. Temple, meanwhile, has dominated three of its last four opponents. Play the Owls here, plus the points.

Betting trends

Houston is 0-3 ATS in its last three games after a win.

Houston is 7-1 straight up in its last eight games against its conference.

Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.