Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Iowa is 4-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in its rivalry with Michigan State under the current coaching regimes, but they've never met for bigger stakes than they will Saturday night in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Point spread: The Spartans opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.2-27.5 Hawkeyes

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State clinched its third berth in the Big Ten Championship Game with a 55-16 romp over Penn State last week, easily covering eight points. The Spartans led the Lions 34-16 early in the fourth quarter, then put the game away with three scores over a two-minute period.

Quarterback Connor Cook, after missing the victory over Ohio State with a shoulder injury, threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns, while the running game added 188 yards. And the Michigan State defense scored twice, including a 77-yard fumble return late in the second quarter that broke the game open.

The Spartans are now 5-1 ATS over their last six games.

Why the Iowa Hawkeyes can cover the spread

Iowa stands, along with Clemson, as one of the last two undefeated teams in FBS football, after completing a 12-0 regular season with a 28-20 victory last week at Nebraska. The Hawkeyes scored on their first drive of the game and never trailed, later leading 21-10 and 28-17, taking advantage of four Cornhuskers turnovers.

On the day running back Jordan Canzeri ran for 140 yards and two touchdowns, including the clincher on a 68-yard bolt midway through the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Iowa defense held Nebraska to a field goal over the last 22 minutes of the game, helping secure the cover as a three-point favorite.

The Hawkeyes have now outrushed 11 of 12 opponents this season, by 95 yards per game.

Iowa is playing in its first Big Ten Championship Game and with a victory could make the College Football Playoff. The underdog is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the four previous Big Ten title games.

Smart pick

The underdog has ruled in the Big Ten Championship Game, and three or four points might come in handy in a game that could go either way. The smart money here sides with Iowa, plus the points.

Betting trends

Iowa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against Michigan State.

Michigan State is 24-2 SU in its last 26 games against its conference.

Iowa is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against its conference.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.