NFL Week 12 Picks: Expert Predictions and Advice for Latest Vegas Odds
Thanksgiving got Week 12 in the NFL off to a wild and crazy start, with two blowouts—one that could be reasonably expected and one that could not—and a gritty, down-to-the-wire affair to finish the day.
The Detroit Lions started the day by upholding their Turkey Day tradition with aplomb. They tore apart the hapless Philadelphia Eagles 45-14 at home behind five Matthew Stafford touchdown passes.
The Carolina Panthers then "upset"—yes, they were somehow underdogs—the Dallas Cowboys 33-14, pushing their record to a perfect 11-0 (if you're keeping track, this was the blowout one might've seen coming).
Closing out the holiday were the Chicago Bears, who played the role of major spoiler at legendary Lambeau Field. Packers fans looked on as their beloved franchise retired Brett Favre's No. 4 jersey at halftime, only to then watch their current quarterback hero, Aaron Rodgers, come up short on a two-minute drill with the game on the line, allowing the Bears to hold on for a 17-13 win.
Few could've seen these games panning out the way they did. Those looking to make more picks for the rest of the Week 12 slate might be second-guessing their decisions at this point. For a bit of help, here's a look at how some of the top writers from around the web see the rest of Week 12 panning out, plus a bit of advice on the latest Vegas odds. Expert picks are straight up, not against the spread.
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| Minnesota (even) vs. Atlanta (even) | MIN | MIN | MIN | MIN | MIN |
| St. Louis vs. Cincinnati (-10) | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN |
| New Orleans vs. Houston (-3) | NO | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU |
| Tampa Bay vs. Indianapolis (-2.5) | IND | IND | TB | IND | TB |
| San Diego vs. Jacksonville (-4.5) | SD | JAX | JAX | JAX | JAX |
| Buffalo vs. Kansas City (-7) | KC | KC | KC | KC | KC |
| Miami vs. New York Jets (-4) | MIA | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ |
| Oakland (even) vs. Tennessee (even) | OAK | TEN | OAK | OAK | TEN |
| New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington | NYG | NYG | WAS | WAS | WAS |
| Arizona (-11.5) vs. San Francisco | ARI | ARI | ARI | ARI | ARI |
| Pittsburgh vs. Seattle (-3.5) | PIT | PIT | PIT | SEA | SEA |
| New England (-2.5) vs. Denver | NE | DEN | NE | DEN | NE |
| Baltimore vs. Cleveland (-3) | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE |
Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Friday, November 27 at 7 a.m ET. Picks are courtesy of Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, ESPN.com, Fox Sports and NFL.com.
Cincinnati Will Cover Against St. Louis
Be on alert for a blowout here. St. Louis is stumbling into a very tough game against a Cincinnati team that should be highly motivated to snap a two-game losing streak.
After a miserable 16-13 loss to a bad Baltimore team in Week 11, St. Louis is dealing not only with stagnant play, but distractions. Wide receiver Stedman Bailey, not with the team while serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, was shot in the head in his hometown of Miami on Tuesday night.
Per CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora, he is making progress in the hospital, though his status was of great concern to Rams players at practice on Wednesday, according to ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner:
"Upon arrival at Rams Park on Wednesday, Fisher informed the team of what happened and provided as many details as possible. Fisher made it clear that if any of his players needed somebody to talk to, that could be done and there were procedures for anyone who might need some help or have more questions.
After the usual pre-practice stretch, pastor Michael Hansen led the team in prayer. When the nearly two-hour practice was over, Fisher informed the team that Bailey was out of surgery and in the ICU.
Multiple players said knowing what was going on with Bailey, even if there were no details on what happened, helped them get through the day.
"I think initially you are kind of just down wondering if he's all right," linebacker James Laurinaitis said. "Once you hear he's doing well, there's kind of just a big exhale."
"
St. Louis is also facing questions and criticism over its handling of quarterback Case Keenum in the Baltimore game. Keenum was visibly addled after a hard shot late in the fourth quarter, but he remained in the game. Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman wasn't buying Rams coach Jeff Fisher's comments on the issue:
Keenum was starting in place of Nick Foles and finished with just 136 yards and one touchdown. He has been limited in practice this week, per StLouisRams.com. Foles could get the start if Keenum's unavailable. Either way, one of the two is going to run into a Bengals defense that's allowed just 15 touchdown passes and a combined 85.7 QB rating on the year, per ESPN.com.
Try as he might, rookie sensation Todd Gurley can't play like Superman every week. The hard-running tailback has scored in five straight games, but his rushing numbers overall have slowed as the offense has crumbled around him.
| October 4, Arizona | 19 | 146 | 7.7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 |
| October 11, Green Bay | 30 | 159 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| October 25, Cleveland | 19 | 128 | 6.7 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 8.8 |
| November 1, San Francisco | 20 | 133 | 6.7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 |
| November 8, Minnesota | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 6.7 |
| November 15, Chicago | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 14.7 |
| November 22, Baltimore | 25 | 66 | 2.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Bengals passing attack appeared to be in fine working order against a very strong Cardinals defense in a 34-31 Week 11 loss. Andy Dalton threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Eifert continued his red-zone mastery with two touchdowns, while A.J. Green and Marvin Jones each reeled in four passes. Giovani Bernard was a bright spot, with eight receptions for 128 yards.
Running back Jeremy Hill scored twice on the ground against the Cards, earning more carries than Bernard. Arizona did well to bottle both guys up on the ground, but the talented tandem in the backfield could cause quite the headache for St. Louis.
The Rams defense has kept the team competitive for much of the season, but this feels like the week it all comes apart at the seams. Cincinnati should be able to score three or four touchdowns on offense while holding the Rams to little more than whatever Gurley can conjure up.
Chargers Keep it Close in Jacksonville
San Diego played what was by far its worst game of the season in Week 11, losing to rival Kansas City 33-3 at home. So, really, it has nowhere to go but up.
Philip Rivers had no chance at getting into a rhythm on an offense riddled with injuries. The JV squad of wide receivers couldn't get open, and the running game behind rookie Melvin Gordon allowed the Chiefs to key in on the pass and blitz Rivers to death.
Prospects should improve against Jacksonville. Blake Bortles and company are on a two-game winning streak, but they were close games against Baltimore and Tennessee, two of the league's poorest teams this season. Per Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Jacksonville ranks 21st in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
With 23 sacks on the year, the Jags have a middling pass rush, one not quite as potent as the Chiefs'. Per Chargers.com, Malcom Floyd and Ladarius Green both practiced on Thursday, though in limited capacity, and Floyd could be in play for Week 12. He told San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken that he has "full range" of motion in his hurt shoulder.
Green had just one catch for nine yards against the Chiefs. Hopefully, another week will get him closer to full strength. If either one of those guys is up to the task in Week 12, Rivers should have a much better time moving the chains.
On the flip side, Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most sacks this season, and the Bolts have a couple of decent young pass-rushers in Melvin Ingram and Jerry Attaochu. Jacksonville doesn't quite have the running backs to take full advantage of the Chargers' abysmal run defense, though T.J. Yeldon has flashed potential with two 100-yard efforts this year.
The key to this game will be San Diego's ability to get to Bortles, who has thrown 17 picks on the year.
That said, secondary could be a concern for San Diego, as Eric Weddle hasn't practiced this week with a groin injury, per Chargers.com. Second-year corner Jason Verrett has been the lone bright spot in that unit. Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley spoke highly of the TCU product, per Chargers.com's Hayley Elwood:
"He’s very good. We really liked him coming out of the draft. Just his overall spirit, intensity and how he plays the game. Very aggressive on the perimeter. Very athletic; he can run. He looks more and more comfortable with what they’re asking him to do and he just plays at a high level.
"
Verrett may be able to shut down either Allen Robinson or Allen Hurns, but he can't take away all of Bortles' options.
San Diego has also played a number of close games this year. All but two of the Bolts games have been decided by more than eight points. Five of them have come down to four points or less.
Look for the Chargers to bounce back against Jacksonville. They'll still lose the game, but by no more than a field goal.
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