Daily Fantasy Football Week 11: Predicting DraftKings Top Performers and Busts
There are precious few rosters left untouched by the nasty injury bug plaguing season-long fantasy lineups. Owners can flip their frustrations through an ever-refreshing daily fantasy football slate in Week 11.
The final bye week of 2015 chomps into a portion of top-end production with studs like Drew Brees, DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Gary Barnidge taking the weekend off. But plenty of hot hands and favorable matchups remain to load your DraftKings lineup for success.
Separate Week 11’s top performers from the busts with the tips listed below.
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Top Performers
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($6,700)
Any doubt Carson Palmer and the Cardinals offense could be matchup-proof were erased on Sunday night in Seattle. Arizona took to the skies attempting 48 passes, completing 29 for 363 yards and three touchdowns.
The Seahawks thwarted Palmer thrice with an interception and two forced-fumble recoveries, but the 12-year veteran recovered for a 26.3-point finish, fourth among quarterbacks in Week 10. Palmer ranks second in DK scoring among quarterbacks with 23.6 points per game, trailing only Tom Brady ($8,500)—27.3 PPG.
Palmer’s $1,800 discount relative to Brady is enticing, even on a date with the Cincinnati Bengals' league-leading defense in NFL points against (15.6).
Head coach Bruce Arian’s offense boasts the league’s second-highest scoring clip at 33.6 PPG, meaning these two units will meet somewhere in the middle on Sunday night.
Las Vegas agrees, setting Arizona’s implied scoring line at 26, tied for third-highest in Week 11 with the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. Trust Palmer to anchor a strong lineup in both GPPs and cash games.
Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,500)
Yes, Charcandrick West is bound to be the chalkiest play of the week, but with good reason.
He ranks ninth in Pro Football Focus’ Points Per Opportunity metric over the last four weeks—among running backs involved in at least 50 percent of snaps—with an average of 22 carries and 4.7 targets in three games.
West torched a stout Denver Broncos defense for 31.1 points in Week 10.
"Have a Day, @Charcandrick26! #KCvsDEN pic.twitter.com/VyWpZyrT0P
— NFL (@NFL) November 16, 2015"
The San Diego Chargers rank last in points allowed to opposing running backs, giving up at least 100 yards rushing to everyone except the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens. Jeremy Langford ($5,600) posted 72 yards rushing and a touchdown on 18 carries, adding 70 more receiving on three receptions in a dominant Week 9 performance at San Diego.
Todd Gurley ($7,600) was the last running back expected to have top value at such a bargain price in Week 7, when he cost just $5,000. He repaid the 67.13 percent of owners in the Millionaire Maker tournament with a top-three overall, 35.30-point performance.
West’s salary is tied for 22nd among running backs, a tremendous value that will ripple opportunities to roster higher-priced players at other positions throughout your lineup.
Carolina Panthers DST ($3,400)
The Carolina Panthers boast the fourth most-productive defense/special teams on the season. The Panthers logged 51 sacks (28), interceptions (14) and fumble recoveries (nine) to rank second behind only the Broncos (52).
The Washington Redskins swagger into Charlotte off a big win against the New Orleans Saints. Unfortunately their atrocious home/road split is following them south:
| ------ | Yards per Game | Turnovers per Game | Points per Game |
| Home | 401.6 | 1.0 | 27.0 |
| Road | 287.5 | 2.5 | 17.5 |
Carolina owns PFF’s second-highest pass-coverage grade featuring its top-rated cover corner in the league, Josh Norman. Kirk Cousins ($5,300) and company should not be trusted to continue the hot streak against such long odds.
Busts
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,600)
With an offense as potent and diverse as Cincinnati’s, there’s always potential for points, but the Bengals’ game script will likely lower the ceiling on Andy Dalton’s upside.
Arizona’s defense isn’t as strong against the rush as it is against the pass, begging the Bengals to keep it on the ground. Plus, if Cincinnati can maintain a healthy time of possession, it keeps the ball away from Palmer and the high-flying Cardinals offense.
J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans defense disarmed the Red Rifle on Monday Night.
"Good way to protect a lead? Sacking a quarterback. Just ask J.J. Watt. #HOUvsCIN https://t.co/9GMBBb6eRV
— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2015"
Cincinnati’s offense is averaging 26.1 PPG through nine contests, but Vegas set the Bengals' projected score just under 22. Expecting Dalton and the offense to rebound on the road in a short week isn’t realistic.
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens ($5,800)
Justin Forsett carries the eighth-highest salary into Week 11 but is hardly projected to post anything better than an RB2 performance, based on a survey of the top 20 most accurate fantasy experts on FantasyPros.
The eight-year veteran flopped for three single-digit efforts in nine games so far, scoring over three times his cost just twice. His price is down $400 from Week 1, $600 from his season-long high ($6,400) in Week 6.
The St. Louis Rams run defense is solid, tied for sixth in yards per attempt (3.8) with a No. 1 grade from PFF. Baltimore’s run blocking is solid on paper—ranked sixth—but the offensive line just suffered a massive loss with center Jeremy Zuttah placed on injured reserve this week.
"Jeremy Zuttah to IR, Ravens promote Terrance West https://t.co/HudBMeIyoK
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 18, 2015"
Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s offense ran the ball on 37.29 percent of plays this year, ranked 26th, according to SportingCharts. Forsett could conceivably counter in the passing game, ranked 10th in targets to running backs with 41, but he’s tied for 32nd in receiving yards (153) with zero touchdowns.
There’s too much value at running back this week to waste a dime on Forsett.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,800)
Alshon Jeffery faces the league’s toughest defense in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers while nursing a groin injury that kept him sidelined for almost half of Chicago’s plays in Week 10.
The Denver Broncos permitted just two top-24 performances to WRs this season, according to Rich Hribar of Rotoworld.
Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times reported Jeffery was held out of practice Thursday as a precautionary measure because the Bears practice turf can be hard on groin injuries.
Even though owners can expect Jeffery to play on Sunday, the possibility of limited snaps and a Vegas line of 41 points—tied for second-lowest in Week 11—places him in a completely avoidable situation this week.
Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by Odds Shark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of RotoGuru, unless otherwise noted.
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