NFL Odds Week 10: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis

Like most markets, the gambling market is time-sensitive. Key injury news can make lines swing greatly from their open on Sunday nights. Vegas might have also misjudged either the public or the sharps, which can lead to the point spread moving midweek.

Edges can come from statistical advantages and underrated narratives, but timing gets overlooked often. If you're waiting until Sunday morning to place some bets, we're here to help. We'll give out spread picks for every game this week, plus three over-under picks for Sunday.

We'll also add the weekly line movement, weather reports and impactful injury reports. Last week was huge for the books and horrible for the public, but we came out ahead, as we have for the majority of the season. Hopefully, we'll be on track this week too.

Spread Picks

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

The spread: Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-5.5)

The pick: Baltimore (-5.5)

The spread: New Orleans @ Washington (+1.5)

The pick: Washington (+1.5)

The spread: Chicago @ St. Louis (-9)

The pick: Chicago (+9)

The spread: Miami @ Philadelphia (-5.5)

The pick: Philadelphia (-5.5)

The spread: Carolina @ Tennessee (+5)

The pick: Carolina (-5)

The spread: Detroit @ Green Bay (-11)

The pick: Green Bay (-11)

The spread: Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-5)

The pick: Cleveland (+5)

The spread: Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+1)

The pick: Tampa Bay (+1)

The spread: Minnesota @ Oakland (-2.5)

The pick: Oakland (-2.5)

The spread: New England @ New York Giants (+8.5)

The pick: New York Giants (+8.5)

The spread: Kansas City @ Denver (-7)

The pick: Kansas City (+7)

The spread: Arizona @ Seattle (-2.5)

The pick: Seattle (-2.5)

The spread: Houston @ Cincinnati (-10.5)

The pick: Cincinnati (-10.5)

Line Movement

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Jacksonville @ Baltimore

Opened: Baltimore (-6)

Current: Baltimore (-4.5)

New Orleans @ Washington

Opened: Washington (PK)

Current: Washington (PK)

Chicago @ St. Louis

Opened: St. Louis (-9)

Current: St. Louis (-6.5)

Miami @ Philadelphia

Opened: Philadelphia (-5.5)

Current: Philadelphia (-6)

Carolina @ Tennessee

Opened: Tennessee (+4)

Current: Tennessee (+6)

Detroit @ Green Bay

Opened: Green Bay (-11)

Current: Green Bay (-10.5)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Opened: Pittsburgh (-4.5)

Current: Pittsburgh (-6)

Dallas @ Tampa Bay

Opened: Tampa Bay (+1)

Current: Tampa Bay (-1)

Minnesota @ Oakland

Opened: Oakland (-2.5)

Current: Oakland (-3)

New England @ New York Giants

Opened: New York Giants (+7)

Current: New York Giants (+7.5)

Kansas City @ Denver

Opened: Denver (-6.5)

Current: Denver (-4.5)

Arizona @ Seattle

Opened: Seattle (-2.5)

Current: Seattle (-3)

Houston @ Cincinnati

Opened: Cincinnati (-13)

Current: Cincinnati (-11)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over-Under Picks

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Dallas @ Tampa Bay: Over 43

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can't play defense. Period. It's a one-point line in favor of the Dallas Cowboys, which means that Vegas is projecting a 22-21 game. In their past five games, the Buccaneers have allowed more than 22 points defensively. Book it.

New England @ New York Giants: Under 54.5

Since the start of October, the New England Patriots have only participated in one game in which 55 or more points were scored, and one of them was a hyper-motivated match against the Indianapolis Colts where the game would have ended at 55 points on the dot if not for a late garbage touchdown from Indianapolis and a subsequent blocked point-after attempt by Jamie Collins. Both of these teams are respectable. I wouldn't expect a shootout like when the Giants torched the New Orleans Saints' lack of defense.

New Orleans @ Washington: Over 50

The Saints just allowed 34 points to a rookie quarterback coming off injury under an interim head coach. That came a week after the New York Giants and Eli Manning scored 49 points. Those games were both in the Superdome. Imagine the state of their defense on the road. This one is easy: Put your money on the Saints giving up more than 25 points, and you'll end up on the positive side more times than not in this situation.

Weather Reports

Associated Press

Open stadium

Jacksonville @ Baltimore

High: 62 degrees

Low: 43 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: WSW 8 mph

New Orleans @ Washington

High: 62 degrees

Low: 38 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 7 mph

Miami @ Philadelphia

High: 60 degrees

Low: 42 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: WSW 11 mph

Carolina @ Tennessee

High: 63 degrees

Low: 41 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: ESE 5 mph

Detroit @ Green Bay

High: 57 degrees

Low: 41 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 8 mph

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

High: 61 degrees

Low: 35 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 11 mph

Dallas @ Tampa Bay

High: 83 degrees

Low: 67 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: ENE 14 mph

Minnesota @ Oakland

High: 58 degrees

Low: 41 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy/windy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: WNW 23 mph

New England @ New York Giants

High: 59 degrees

Low: 42 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 10 mph

Kansas City @ Denver

High: 62 degrees

Low: 31 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: S 6 mph

Arizona @ Seattle

High: 46 degrees

Low: 37 degrees

Description: Showers

Precipitation: 90 percent

Wind: SSE 8 mph

Houston @ Cincinnati

High: 60 degrees

Low: 45 degrees

Description: Mostly cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: SSE 5 mph

Dome stadium

Chicago @ St. Louis

All data retrieved via Weather.com's five-day forecasts.

Injury Reports

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Josh McCown, QB, Cleveland

Is the Johnny Manziel era over in Cleveland? His one shot seems to be coming to an end, as starting quarterback Josh McCown's ribs are coming back to reasonable health. Heading into Pittsburgh, McCown is listed as questionable. At this point, it looks like a coin flip if he'll play.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

It looks like Ben Roethlisberger's foot folded in half last week, but he's somehow been able to practice this week. He's listed as questionable, and after two injuries already this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers probably won't push him to go early, as the Cincinnati Bengals have essentially already won the AFC North.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota

Luckily for the Minnesota Vikings, the shot that took Teddy Bridgewater, their starting quarterback, out of the game last week won't hurt them in Week 10. According to Ben Goessling of ESPN.com, Bridgewater will play, and the Vikings will need him to perform to his maximum level to pull off the road victory against the Oakland Raiders.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle

As of right now, Marshawn Lynch is questionable with an abdominal injury. The Seahawks will have extra time for Lynch to get right, though, as they're playing Sunday Night Football against the Arizona Cardinals. If Lynch can go in what project to be the rainiest game of the week, Seattle's style of play can edge out Arizona's dome-passing identity.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay

Eddie Lacy is listed as questionable with a groin injury, but does it matter? His weight is visibly out of hand, and James Starks is now the Green Bay Packers' top running back in terms of both touches and talent. Lacy is not the only declining star who may not suit up; Calvin Johnson, the Detroit Lions receiver, has missed plenty of time this week too.