Bleacher Report's Final 2015 MLB Gold Glove Predictions
The finalists for Gold Glove honors have been announced, and the winners will be revealed on Nov. 10 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Three finalists were named for each position in each league, and what follows are the predicted winners of each of the 18 Gold Glove Awards that will be handed out on Tuesday.
Among the determining factors are Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 Chances (UZR/150) and overall defensive rating (Def), as well as candidates' career Gold Glove totals.
Keep in mind defensive metrics are not the only things voters take into account when it comes to handing out the hardware, as we've seen some wildly undeserving winners in the past.
That makes predicting the winners somewhat difficult, but here goes nothing.
AL Pitcher
1 of 18
Finalists
| Mark Buehrle, TOR | 5 | 4 |
| Sonny Gray, OAK | 2 | 0 |
| Dallas Keuchel, HOU | 13 | 1 |
Predicted Winner: Dallas Keuchel, HOU
Dallas Keuchel has emerged as a legitimate ace for the Houston Astros over the past two seasons, and stellar defense on the mound has been an underrated part of his game along the way.
NL Pitcher
2 of 18
Finalists
| Jake Arrieta, CHC | 6 | 0 |
| Gerrit Cole, PIT | 6 | 0 |
| Zack Greinke, LAD | 9 | 1 |
Predicted Winner: Zack Greinke, LAD
Few pitchers are as athletic as Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke, and that makes him one of the best defensive pitchers in baseball.
AL Catcher
3 of 18
Finalists
| Jason Castro, HOU | 4 | 36 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Russell Martin, TOR | -2 | 44 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Salvador Perez, KC | 5 | 31 | 12.2 | 2 |
Predicted Winner: Salvador Perez, KC
Salvador Perez has been an absolute horse for the Kansas City Royals the past three seasons, averaging 143 games played per year and catching an MLB-high 3,556.1 innings.
He has a cannon behind the plate, does a fantastic job handling the Royals pitching staff and is the clear leader of a team fresh off of a World Series title.
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NL Catcher
4 of 18
Finalists
| Yadier Molina, STL | 7 | 41 | 10.9 | 7 |
| Buster Posey, SF | 9 | 36 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Wilson Ramos, WAS | 9 | 44 | 11.2 | 0 |
Predicted Winner: Yadier Molina, STL
Yadier Molina has won seven consecutive NL Gold Glove Awards, and while he suffered through a down season at the plate in 2015, he remains the gold standard behind the dish.
The Cardinals pitching staff had a 2.79 ERA with Molina giving the signals, compared to a 3.48 ERA with their backup. He also allowed just 37 stolen bases on the year, as it's reached a point where teams simply don't run on the 33-year-old.
"I think the one constant of having Yadi back there is he makes everybody feel comfortable, from the pitchers to the position players to the leadership in the locker room. Just knowing that Yadi is back there, is almost like a comfort zone," left fielder Matt Holliday told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
It's hard to quantify something like that in terms of statistics, but it's clear to anyone who watches the Cardinals on a regular basis just how much it means for them to have him behind the plate.
AL First Baseman
5 of 18
Finalists
| Eric Hosmer, KC | 1 | 1.0 | -10.6 | 2 |
| Mike Napoli, BOS/TEX | 3 | 5.5 | -3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Teixeira, NYY | 5 | 1.1 | -7.4 | 5 |
Predicted Winner: Mark Teixeira, NYY
Mark Teixeira broke into the league as a third baseman, and while he quickly made the move across the infield, his athleticism and range have made him a perennial candidate for Gold Glove honors.
He again missed significant time due to injury, as his season ended on Aug. 26 with a leg injury that was eventually revealed to be a fracture. However, in the 111 games he did play, he was the best defensive first baseman in the AL, and that should be enough to edge out Eric Hosmer, who won the award last year.
NL First Baseman
6 of 18
Finalists
| Brandon Belt, SF | 8 | 10.7 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 18 | 4.7 | -6.7 | 1 |
| Adrian Gonzalez, LAD | 10 | 3.2 | -7.2 | 4 |
Predicted Winner: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
Since advanced defensive stats began being tracked back in 2003, the following are the single-season leaders in defensive runs saved among first basemen:
- Albert Pujols (2007): 31
- Mark Teixeira (2008): 21
- Mark Teixeira (2003): 19
- Paul Goldschmidt (2015): 18
- Casey Kotchman (2007): 18
- Albert Pujols (2008): 18
- Daric Barton (2010): 18
Paul Goldschmidt should take home his second Gold Glove in the past three years this fall, though Adrian Gonzalez was an elite defender once again in his own right.
AL Second Baseman
7 of 18
Finalists
| Jose Altuve, HOU | 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Dozier, MIN | -5 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ian Kinsler, DET | 19 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 0 |
Predicted Winner: Ian Kinsler, DET
A mediocre defender when he first broke into the league, Ian Kinsler has tallied 98 DRS since the start of the 2009 season, tops among all second basemen during that span.
NL Second Baseman
8 of 18
Finalists
| Dee Gordon, MIA | 13 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 0 |
| DJ LeMahieu, COL | 3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Phillips, CIN | 5 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4 |
Predicted Winner: Dee Gordon, MIA
During a breakout season in 2014, everything finally clicked for Dee Gordon offensively, but he was still having his fair share of problems at second base.
The 27-year-old finished 2014 grading out as a well-below-average defender (-5 DRS, -3.5 UZR/150), but he turned things around in a big way this season. He finished as the best all-around defender at the position in 2015, according to FanGraphs, and should be rewarded with a Gold Glove.
AL Third Baseman
9 of 18
Finalists
| Adrian Beltre, TEX | 18 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 4 |
| Evan Longoria, TB | -1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 2 |
| Manny Machado, BAL | 14 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 1 |
Predicted Winner: Adrian Beltre, TEX
Even in a season where he battled injuries, Adrian Beltre was still an elite defender at third base.
It's somewhat surprising that the 36-year-old has only won four Gold Glove Awards in his career, as he's piled up an impressive 192 DRS and tallied double digits in that category nine different times.
Manny Machado is an elite defender in his own right and will win plenty more Gold Gloves before his career is over, but this one belongs to Beltre.
NL Third Baseman
10 of 18
Finalists
| Nolan Arenado, COL | 18 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Matt Duffy, SF | 12 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Todd Frazier, CIN | 6 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 0 |
Predicted Winner: Nolan Arenado, COL
Since breaking into the league in 2013, Nolan Arenado has been the best defensive third baseman in the league, putting up 64 DRS and winning the NL Gold Glove each of the past two seasons.
His offensive game took center stage this past season as he posted an .898 OPS with 42 home runs and 130 RBI, but he remained an top-notch defender and should make it three Gold Glove Awards in a row.
AL Shortstop
11 of 18
Finalists
| Xander Bogaerts, BOS | 0 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alcides Escobar, KC | -1 | 6.7 | 13.9 | 0 |
| Didi Gregorius, NYY | 5 | 7.9 | 14.2 | 0 |
Predicted Winner: Didi Gregorius, NYY
J.J. Hardy has won the AL Gold Glove Award three years running, but after playing just 114 games while dealing with shoulder and groin injuries, he is not among the three finalists for the award this time around.
Slick-fielding Didi Gregorius was by far the best defender at the position in the American League in his first season with the New York Yankees and certainly graded out as a significant upgrade over the retired Derek Jeter.
NL Shortstop
12 of 18
Finalists
| Brandon Crawford, SF | 20 | 11.9 | 17.1 | 0 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria, MIA | 9 | 17.7 | 21.6 | 0 |
| Andrelton Simmons, ATL | 25 | 17.5 | 23.9 | 2 |
Predicted Winner: Andrelton Simmons, ATL
All due respect to Brandon Crawford, who took a huge step forward offensively while remaining an elite defender, but everyone is still chasing Andrelton Simmons for the title of best defensive shortstop in the game.
He's taken home Gold Glove honors the past two years and racked up 113 DRS in his four seasons in the league, and it's hard to see anyone else winning the award for the foreseeable future.
AL Left Fielder
13 of 18
Finalists
| Yoenis Cespedes, DET | 15 | 22.2 | 13 | 13.6 | 0 |
| Brett Gardner, NYY | 1 | -0.9 | 7 | -5.8 | 0 |
| Alex Gordon, KC | 7 | 10.5 | 4 | 2.4 | 4 |
Predicted Winner: Yoenis Cespedes, DET
Yoenis Cespedes spent just 102 games in the American League before being traded to the New York Mets at the deadline.
However, with Alex Gordon missing significant time to injury and Brett Gardner grading out below his normal level of defensive production, he has to be considered the favorite to win the AL Gold Glove.
Cespedes has always had one of the best arms in baseball, but he displayed elite range as well this past season, and that will be one more feather in his cap as he heads into free agency.
NL Left Fielder
14 of 18
Finalists
| Starling Marte, PIT | 24 | 12.1 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Justin Upton, SD | 8 | 2.8 | 9 | -4.5 | 0 |
| Christian Yelich, MIA | 13 | 0.9 | 6 | -3.4 | 1 |
Predicted Winner: Starling Marte, PIT
A center fielder during his time in the minors, Starling Marte moved to left field in the majors with Andrew McCutchen blocking him at his natural position.
That athleticism has made him an unrivaled defender at the position, and on top of his speed and range, he also led the National League with 16 outfield assists this past season.
"He is playing left field as well as anybody in the game," manager Clint Hurdle told Tom Singer of MLB.com. "He's playing it like he invented it. Strong defense."
His first Gold Glove should come in 2015, and it could be the first of many.
AL Center Fielder
15 of 18
Finalists
| Kevin Kiermaier, TB | 42 | 40.7 | 15 | 32.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Pillar, TOR | 14 | 16.0 | 10 | 16.1 | 0 |
| Mike Trout, LAA | 5 | 0.3 | 7 | 2.6 | 0 |
Predicted Winner: Kevin Kiermaier, TB
There was not a better defender at any position in 2015 than Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, and it's not even close.
Jeff Sullivan of Fox Sports wrote back in September about how Kiermaier may be having the best defensive season since the onset of advanced defensive metrics:
"There's no conclusive way to know, but this much is fair: Right now, Kevin Kiermaier might be having the best defensive season we know of. That stretches back only a little more than a decade, but that's a lot of time, with a lot of players. Kiermaier's outshining quite possibly all of them.
"
There are stats to back that up too, as he set the record for single-season DRS this past year, a stat that has been tracked since 2003:
- CF Kevin Kiermaier (2015): 42
- SS Andrelton Simmons (2013): 41
- CF Carlos Gomez (2013): 38
- RF Gerardo Parra (2013): 36
- 3B Manny Machado (2013): 35
He's a lock to win his first Gold Glove, and he might just be the best defensive player in the game today, regardless of position.
NL Center Fielder
16 of 18
Finalists
| Billy Hamilton, CIN | 8 | 18.8 | 8 | 16.2 | 0 |
| Andrew McCutchen, PIT | -8 | -6.1 | 7 | -2.2 | 1 |
| A.J. Pollock, ARI | 14 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 0 |
Predicted Winner: Billy Hamilton, CIN
It was a rough season offensively for Billy Hamilton, as he hit just .226/.274/.289 and was dropped from the leadoff spot in the order as a result.
However, his track-star speed again made him a standout defender in center field, as his 18.8 UZR/150 was tops among NL center fielders. A.J. Pollock had nearly twice as many defensive runs saved, but Hamilton graded out as a better all-around defender, and that should be enough for him to win his first Gold Glove.
AL Right Fielder
17 of 18
Finalists
| Kole Calhoun, LAA | 6 | 12.1 | 11 | 6.6 | 0 |
| J.D. Martinez, DET | 4 | 8.0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reddick, OAK | 1 | -1.7 | 6 | -7.8 | 1 |
Predicted Winner: J.D. Martinez, DET
Not only did J.D. Martinez prove his surprise 2014 performance was no fluke and lead the Detroit Tigers offensively, but he also established himself as a stellar defensive right fielder.
Kole Calhoun had more DRS, better range and graded out as a better all-around defender, but we'll predict an upset of sorts here and say Martinez wins on the strength of his 15 outfield assists and solid all-around defensive metrics.
NL Right Fielder
18 of 18
Finalists
| Curtis Granderson, NYM | 12 | 5.9 | 9 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Harper, WAS | 7 | -4.5 | 9 | -10.7 | 0 |
| Jason Heyward, STL | 22 | 22.3 | 10 | 14.0 | 2 |
Predicted Winner: Jason Heyward, STL
Since bursting on the scene in 2010, Jason Heyward leads all of baseball with 119 DRS, coming in just ahead of teammate Andrelton Simmons, who has 113 DRS during that span.
Curtis Granderson graded out well in a good all-around bounce-back season and Bryce Harper added good defense to his MVP offensive numbers, but Heyward will be an easy choice to win his third Gold Glove Award.
All defensive statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, while offensive stats and WAR totals come via Baseball-Reference.com.
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